Virginia Cavaliers Armaan Franklin improved his 3-point shooting this season for Virginia. ~ Photo by Mike Ingalls/TheSabre.com[/caption]

The Virginia basketball team finished its season with a 25-8 record, marking the sixth time with at least that many wins in the Tony Bennett era. The Hoos had a share of the ACC Regular Season Championship, a runner-up finish in the ACC Tournament, and an early upset exit in the NCAA Tournament.

Each year before the season starts, there are questions that help frame the upcoming campaign. Here are this year's 10 Preseason Questions

. Once the season wraps up, it's always good to revisit how those potential storylines unfolded.

Let's take a look at Part II. Part I is here.

5. Who Is The ‘X’ Factor For The Hoos?

This question is on the list every year as a way to determine which player could change the look or trajectory of the team. In the preseason, the pick for me was between Ben Vander Plas and Armaan Franklin. I went with Franklin (though Vander Plas got his own segment in question No. 6, which was revisited in Part I). The reasons: 3-point shooting and his focus on an improved mindset in his second year at Virginia.

Franklin had a rough start and a better finish to his junior season when it came to 3-point shooting. He had just three games with multiple 3's over the first 16 games in 2021-2022, but closed with nine such outings in the final 18 games. He also shot 44.2% from 3 over the final 9 games including the NIT. The hope was that the late season surge would carry over into his senior season. How that played out felt like an 'X' Factor for the season to me.

How did that go? Well, in some ways, the Hoos got the inverse result in 2022-2023.

Franklin came out of the gates just as he had left off the prior season. He knocked down multiple 3's in 15 of the season's first 20 games. He shot 40.4% from 3-point range in those games, including a blistering first three games (52.9%) and another three-game hot streak in games 7-9 (50.0%). Over the last 13 games, however, things tailed off significantly. He shot just 30.8% from 3-point range to close the season. He had 5 multi-3 games among the final 13, which included just one such outing among the four postseason games.

Virginia went 17-3 in those first 20 games and just 8-5 in the final 13. Obviously, a lot more plays into it than just one player's outside shooting and UVA as a whole cooled off from downtown as the season progressed. Franklin's shooting didn't have an outsized role in the outcomes either. UVA was 14-4 when he shot 35% or better from 3-point range and 11-4 when he did not.

The other part of the 'X' equation was mindset. Franklin said in the preseason he thought his mentality moved too much with shooting ebbs and flows in his first season with the Hoos. In this second season, he seemed to manage that better. He had just seven games on the season with fewer than 8 points as he found other ways to contribute and led the team in scoring at 12.4 points per game. The previous season, he had a little more inconsistency in the scoring column with 11 games of fewer than 8 points out of 35 outings (31.4% of the games vs. 21.2% of this season's games).

In the end, Franklin improved from year one to year two but the 'X Factor' part did show up a bit in both years in some key matchups as low-output games for him coincided with some key losses (Navy, Iowa, and JMU for example in 2021-2022 and Miami, Boston College, and Duke in the ACC Tournament this season).

4. Will Virginia Shoot Better This Season?

Franklin wasn't alone in this realm. Entering the season, outside shooting remained a huge question on everyone's minds because of the 2021-2022 season and resulting NIT bid. Even if 3-point shooting didn't act as the sole cause for that outcome, it had a big role and was the run-away scapegoat. The Hoos hit 32.3% of their 3's (176-545 shooting) to tie to rank 247th nationally out of 358 teams. That was the second lowest mark in the previous 5 years for the Wahoos (2019-2020, 30.4%).

Virginia did improve the category in 2022-2023. The Cavaliers made 44 more triples this season than last and they finished at 35.0% (220-629 shooting) to tie for 117th nationally on the season. Franklin (29.6% -> 37.3%), Reece Beekman (33.8% -> 35.1%), and Kihei Clark (34.6% -> 35.2%) each upped their percentages individually. Isaac McKneely (39.0%) made more 3's off the bench (51) than all of the bench players combined from the previous season (44). On the flipside, Ben Vander Plas made 33 treys on 30.0% shooting - that fell short of the 118 3's he made over his last two seasons at Ohio on 34.3% shooting. Taine Murray (2-12, 17%) and Isaac Traudt (redshirted) didn't provide any boost either.

The Hoos got to a tie at the top of the ACC standings with the modest improvement from 3-point land contributing. It did, however, fall off dramatically as the season progressed, which had a lot to do with a late season slump and eventual early exit from the NCAA Tournament.

Overall, this two-season stretch where outside shooting dipped in both quantity and quality, left a lot to be desired. The 35.0% shooting this season was the fifth lowest of the Bennett era (30.4% in 2020, 33.0% in 2012, 34.9% in 2010, 32.3% in 2022, 35.0% in 2023). Virginia was smart enough to not shoot 3's at a high volume the last two seasons with such a mediocre success rate, taking 35.6% of its shots from downtown this season (241st nationally) and 29.9% from there last season (339th).

Still, that seems to lower the potential for winning big or making another NCAA Tournament run. This year's National Champion Connecticut attempted 41.7% of it's shots from 3-point range (67th) while making 36.3% (63rd). Since 2015-2016, 5 out of 7 champs have posted a 3-point volume of at least 38.4% (Baylor in 2021). Only UNC in 2017 (30.3% 3-point volume) and Kansas in 2022 (33.1% 3-point volume) did not.

3. What Impact Will The Freshmen Make For Virginia?

The 2022 recruiting class energized the fan base with hope, but the 2023 season didn't play out like many had hoped.

Isaac McKneely carved out a big role. As noted above, he made more 3's off the bench (51) than all of the bench players combined from the previous season (44). He played 21.5 minutes per game and averaged 6.7 points. He shot 39.0% from 3 and 70.8% from the free throw line. All of that went up in ACC games: 22.2 minutes, 7.3 points, 40.2% 3-point shooting, and 78.6% free throw shooting. All around, that's a good freshman campaign.

Ryan Dunn became the surprise of the group. He averaged 2.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocked shots in 12.9 minutes. Most importantly, he brought some defensive versatility and intensity to the floor plus some momentum-boosting plays at times. That matched the preseason grapevine murmurs.

Isaac Traudt and Leon Bond III, however, both redshirted. While that seemed like a possibility for Bond, it was nowhere near fan radars in the preseason for Traudt after good impressions in Italy and the Blue-White Scrimmage. Some of the daydreaming before the season focused on Traudt spacing the floor and shooting 3's or Bond slashing and dunking. Both of those seemed tied to hopes of an expanded rotation where maybe 9 or 10 players got playing time consistently.

Traudt not playing became the source of fan frustration on a lot of fronts. Then the 3-point shooting storyline unfolded the way it did late in the season. Then Vander Plas' role grew and his eventual injury forced a shuffle in the postseason. After all of that, the frustration only intensified. Then came the internet rumors and eventual transfer as Traudt entered the portal and returned home to Nebraska to play for Creighton. The frustration level was boiling at that point.

In the end, the freshmen's impact for Virginia this season varied. Two rotation players, including a regular shooting and scoring threat in McKneely, and two redshirts. The future impact remains to be seen.

[caption id="attachment_3052699" align="alignnone" width="800"]Virginia Cavaliers Kadin Shedrick gets a shot close to the basket for UVA. ~ Photo by Mike Ingalls/TheSabre.com

 

2. What Floor Will The Kadin Shedrick Elevator Reach?

Speaking of Traudt, fan confusion, and postseason fallout ... well, look no further than Kadin Shedrick. The preseason approached with this question openly wondering just how high Shedrick could climb as a redshirt sophomore. By the end of the season, he was a bit player off the bench with 3 DNPs (did not play) and 8 other appearances of 11 minutes or less. The changing role for Vander Plas seemed to impact Shedrick more than almost anyone else on the roster. In that sense, the elevator basically returned to the ground floor.

The 6'11" junior's final numbers ended up near the same averages as the year before. In 2021-2022, he delivered 6.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.9 blocked shots per game with 19 starts. In 2022-2023, he landed at 6.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocked shots with 15 starts.

Still, the preseason hype train wasn't looking for more of the same. As a rim protector on defense and a rim threat on offense with dunks, Shedrick entered the year after offseason gains, a good showing in Italy, "better patience and rhythm to his game during the Blue-White scrimmage," and positive expectations all around. The preseason article noted that this all felt "a little bit like the Anthony Gill or Mamadi Diakite upperclassman pattern repeating itself" for his fourth year in the program.

Instead, Shedrick lost his starting job halfway through the year for the second straight season and then had a brief postseason return. He started the first 16 games as a sophomore with 3 additional starts in the postseason, which included an 8-point, 9-rebound finale against St. Bonaventure in the NIT. He started 14 of the first 15 games this season with 1 additional start in the postseason, which produced the 15-point, 13-rebound outing against Furman in the NCAA Tournament.

When you read that through, it's no surprise that Shedrick entered the transfer portal after the season. After slowly working his way into a rotation role, each of the last two seasons drifted along the way and ended up with him getting a diminishing opportunity. He's heard from plenty of programs around the country and will leave UVA with a degree. If he finds a better fit elsewhere, maybe the elevator can climb once again for someone with promise.

1. Will The Defense Be Closer To Vintage Virginia?

For me, the single biggest storyline in the preseason was the defense and while it improved, it didn't improve nearly enough to be considered anything resembling the "vintage" Bennett defenses at Virginia.

Here's a look at the numbers and rankings (some may be tied) from the past three seasons:

  • Defensive efficiency – 0.970 points per possession (104th) in 2021 | 0.975 (117th) in 2022 | 0.944 (42nd) in 2023
  • Opponent shooting percentage – 41.6% (62nd) in 2021 | 42.5% (116th) in 2022 | 41.5% (44th) in 2023
  • Opponent 3-point shooting percentage – 33.9% (178th) in 2021 | 33.6% (172nd) in 2022 | 34.1% (187th) in 2023
  • UVA defensive rebounding percentage – 80.4% (8th) in 2021| 74.1% (162nd) in 2022 | 77.7% (31st) in 2023
  • UVA fouls per possession – 20.7% (18th) in 2021 | 22.2% (73rd) in 2022 | 22.3% (60th) in 2023

Those numbers are way off from the prime Virginia defensive years from 2014-2020 when the program regularly landed in the top 10 to top 25 in almost all of those categories regularly. It goes beyond just the total stats, though.

Over the past two seasons, the Cavaliers repeatedly crumbled down the stretch. Some 2021-2022 losses with late game defensive issues included Navy, Iowa, JMU, Wake Forest, Duke at home, and FSU. In 2022-2023, it was not a full collapse as often but there were still problems.

The Hoos allowed 39 points in the second half against Houston, including three straight buckets in the final four minutes during a comeback attempt. Miami had a critical 3-pointer in the final 3 minutes in the middle of a bunch of free throws with UVA trying to rally in that game. Pittsburgh poured in 45 points (yikes!) after halftime with two layups in the final four minutes, including one that broke a tie. Virginia Tech (42) and Boston College (35) had big scoring second halves in Virginia losses too with the Hokies having three layups in the final two minutes and the Eagles getting points on the final four possessions.

Then there was the Furman game. The Paladins produced 41 points in the second half too. That featured 42.9% shooting from 3-point range and they had back-to-back layups in the final four minutes of a close game. The play that ultimately flipped the game was a miscue on offense, but a fairly easy drive and missed blocked shot attempt led to the free throws that put the game in jeopardy at 67-65.

All of which is to say this among the backdrop conversation of Virginia vulnerability in March thanks to back-to-back first round upsets sandwiched around the NIT - UVA's foundation has been defense in the Tony Bennett era and during the past three years and three frustrating season conclusions, the defense has not been good enough. Other factors are in the mix (3-point shooting, pace, etc.) and, obviously, the transfer portal and roster continuity is a fair topic to analyze, but if the program's calling card and attention is going to focus significantly on defense, it has to be better.