Virginia Cavaliers Dontayvion Wicks
Virginia receiver Dontayvion Wicks makes a catch at Duke. ~ Photo courtesy Olivia Taylor/Virginia Athletics Media Relations

I skirmished with what I wanted to discuss in the “One More Thing” segment for the grades this week so I reached out to two friends and my wife for some inspiration. I asked each of them to reflect on the Virginia-Duke game and describe their impression of the team in a single word. One friend did not understand the directions but I accepted his answer. Here’s is what they said:

Undisciplined
No passion
Inconsistent
Lost (not in the context of “lost” the game but in the “lost” puppy context)


That collection of words does seem to broadly identify most of the questions the fans seem to have with the performance of the team.

Let’s look at these words in relation the UVA football.

No passion - Passion is hard to gauge unless you are on the field. Even from the stands, it’s hard to measure a player’s passion and it’s far more difficult on TV. It is fair to say that Saturday there were players who seemed shell-shocked and maybe that led to some apathy or lethargy. It would also be fair to say that for the final 34 minutes of the game, the Hoos matched the Blue Devils as both teams scored 17 points. Not looking for a positive aspect, just stating the obvious. There was certainly frustration and disappointment and maybe that reflected no passion. All that said, for a fan to sense their team lacks passion, it’s a bad look. Plus, coach Tony Elliott didn’t like the energy some players took the field with for warm-ups either.

Undisciplined - I know this has been addressed by the coaches, players, posters, and writers but I’m going to opine as well. Of the six, 15-yard penalties UVA was flagged for, I thought two were egregious from what I felt was a dreadfully officiated game (For the record, I don’t normally address officiating or coaching here, but ...). The penalties were a blatant display of poor discipline, but the larger aspect of poor discipline for me was the continuation of things, despite scheme change, coaching or weather, should be fundamental. Catching the ball, ball security, not getting kicks or punts blocked, maintaining containment, O-Linemen keeping their core tight and hands inside, backs bursting into running lanes instead of dancing around looking for a cleaner gap, etc. You get the point. Football discipline.

Lost - As I delved a little into the meaning of the word lost, I found it may have been the most apropos word of all to describe the Duke game. People who are lost experience the following feelings:

  • Anxiousness or despair
  • Nothing seeming familiar
  • Doubts about fitting in or confused about how to fit in
  • Feeling your priorities don’t mesh with others
  • Fearful of not finding your way
  • Unwilling to take additional risk
  • Concerned that your skills are not optimal to find your way

This is legitimately a sense one can gather about this team.

Inconsistent - This is a no-doubter. But it was in this word where I found my “One More Thing” topic. There are numerous aspects of all three phases of UVA football that have prevented the team from playing consistent and complementary football. I’m not going to cover those. In “One More Thing” below, I will reveal what may be the biggest culprit to Virginia’s early season offensive woes.

But first, the grades. (Previous grades analysis can be found here.)

Greg’s Grades

Overview

Offense Grade: 70.63 (C-)

  • Highlights: Despite the loss it was another record-setting day for QB Brennan Armstrong who became UVA’s all-time leader in 200-yard passing games with 21. He also tied Shawn Moore for second in career touchdown passes with 55 and sits just one behind Matt Schaub’s 56.
  • Not so bright: The Hoos are averaging 2.5 points in the first quarter; that ranks 104th in the FBS.

I see glimpses each week for the offense but plenty to tamp down getting over excited. I was disappointed with the line play. I felt the OL was making strides but the run game was poor and while the pass protection was satisfactory, Duke was able to pressure the pocket with only four rushers at times. The Devils only managed a single sack but there was plenty of duress.

The wide receivers and tight ends didn’t help. The receiving corps was at the bottom of the report card with a 63.05, their worst mark of the season in the grades.

One item that is improving is red zone offense. Virginia scored 37 out of a possible 77 points in 11 red zone possessions in the first three games (48%). In the games against the Orange and Blue Devils (see what I did there?), they have collected 92% of a possible 36 red zone points.

Defense Grade: 69.25 (D+)

  • Highlights: After giving up five touchdown passes in the first three games, the Hoos allowed just one TD pass against Duke and Syracuse.
  • Not so bright: Six, 15-yard penalties.

After posting its highest grade of the season the previous week, the Wahoo defense dispatched its worst grade of the year in Durham. All three units scored their lowest marks of the season with the linebackers recording a 65.19 unit low.

Duke posted its highest rushing total of 2022 with 248 yards against the Hoos and tied a season-high with four rushing touchdowns. Virginia had allowed just two in four previous outings this year. The pass defense was not championship level this week for the first time this season but did receive an 86.82 in the grades.

Special Teams Grade: 72.08 (C-)

  • Highlights: Duke was the first game of the 2022 campaign where the placekicking operation did not miss a kick.
  • Not so bright: Blocked punt, 57-yard kickoff return, fumbled kickoff return.

After having three solid grade weeks, the punt coverage operation was dreadful allowing a blocked punt and a 43-yard return to grade out with a 40.76. The kickoff coverage group has posted an average grade of 63.72 over the last two weeks and allowed another big return this week.

The biggest mover on the positive side this week was the placekicking operation, which realized a 39.81 increase from last week’s 54.47, posting the highest mark of any special teams unit this season with a 94.28 in the grades.

QB RB W/T OL ALL DL LB DB ALL KOR KOC PK PR PC ALL
UR 83.91 91.75 81.97 89.24 86.71 79.53 86.67 93.44 86.54 83.11 91.95 67.07 59.6 64.31 73.21
ILL 68.32 58.43 63.51 50.68 60.23 80.07 83.67 89.53 84.42 75.58 93.03 71.78 42.85 81.09 72.86
ODU 79.86 87.23 72.67 89.28 82.26 89.93 85.25 91.05 88.74 91.91 77.12 71.17 74.16 86.52 80.17
Cuse 63.48 79.03 61.82 73.25 69.39 92.86 90.27 88.76 90.63 81.86 57.90 54.47 79.29 93.44 73.39
Duke 77.51 72.97 63.05 68.99 70.63 70.34 65.19 72.23 69.25 81.10 69.55 94.28 74.74 40.76 72.09
Lville 71.77 61.84 70.76 67.34 67.93 75.99 63.60 70.13 69.90 81.28 79.78 97.60 74.55 92.75 85.19
GT 82.45 70.92 76.37 80.82 77.65 97.4 94.46 96.90 96.25 80.64 81.48 38.79 78.91 78.92 71.75
Miami 73.28 69.84 68.47 58.26 67.46 93.6 95.10 97.079 95.25 N/A 65.55 98.00 63.15 62.59 72.32
UNC 87.06 82.2 78.84 85.09 83.29 84.33 75.50 79.04 79.62 83.56 62.91 94.61 57.88 41.31 68.06
Pitt 59.86 61.77 66.72 39.01 56.84 74.81 73.07 67.18 71.69 77.50 48.81 54.26 47.93 72.92 60.29
Season 74.75 73.60 70.42 70.20 72.24 83.89 81.28 84.53 83.23 81.84 72.81 74.20 65.31 71.46 72.93

Virginia Offense - Grades

  • Total Offense: 70.63 (C-)
  • Quarterback: 77.51 (C+)
  • Running backs: 72.97 (C-)
  • Wide receivers & tight ends: 63.05 (D)
  • Offensive line: 68.99 (D+)
Quick Takes & Notes
  • UVA’s had its second worst yardage total of the season with 93 yards rushing. This shows up in the grades.
  • While the Duke defensive front did not get a clean rush, the Devils knocked down five Armstrong pass attempts.
  • After going 8-14 (57%) on third-down conversion attempts, the Hoos recorded their first, plus 50% third down conversion rate of the season against a FBS opponent.
  • Duke held UVA’s offense to its fourth consecutive game with a passer rating below 120, which would rank in the bottom 20% of the NCAA on an annual basis.

Virginia Defense - Grades

  • Total Defense: 69.25 (D+)
  • Defensive line: 70.34 (C-)
  • Linebackers: 65.19 (D)
  • Secondary: 72.23 (C-)
Quick Takes & Notes
  • The Cavalier defense held Duke to its lowest total offense production of the season (377 yards) and its lowest yards per play (5.24).
  • The 249 yards rushing were the most for the Blue Devils in 14 games; that was their first 200-plus rushing yard game against Virginia since 10/6/2010.
  • The Wahoo defense held its fifth consecutive opponent under a 39% third down conversion rate; the last time a UVA defense did so was in 2013, holding its first seven opponents to under 36% - for the season, that group held 10 of 12 beneath 36%.
  • Virginia held the Blue Devils to their lowest passing yardage (129 yards) in 19 games. The Miami Hurricanes held Duke to 121 passing yards on 12/05/20.

Virginia Special Teams - Grades

  • Total Special Teams: 72.06 (C-)
  • Kickoff return: 81.1 (B-)
  • Kickoff coverage: 69.55 (D+)
  • Placekicking: 94.28 (A)
  • Punt return: 74.74 (C)
  • Punt coverage: 40.76 (F)
Quick Takes & Notes
  • Rookie Will Bettridge was successful on his first career field goal attempt, a 34-yard attempt in the third quarter.
  • Virginia’s kickoff return-man Demick Starling was responsible for a fumble that eradicated a 38-yard kickoff return and great field position. The punt coverage crew had a punt blocked that gave Duke excellent field position. Duke score touchdowns on both mistakes.
  • Noting Starling, he is averaging a solid 28.14 yards per return and has totaled 197 return yards; that is fourth-most in the ACC and nine yards shy of last season’s total kickoff return yards.
Team Quick Takes & Notes
  • Duke, without question was the more physical team in all three phases. If you want to see physical running backs that finish runs in an aggressive way, watch more Duke football.
  • With the fumbled kickoff and final drive interception, the Hoos have lost 12 turnovers this season. In five games, they have recorded 66% of the total turnovers they recorded last season (18). They are on pace to commit 28.8 turnovers in 2022; that would be the most since they committed 28 in 2011.

One More Thing - The One Consistency For The UVA Offense And Its Impact

When my friend mentioned the word inconsistency in our conversation, I started asking what has Virginia done consistently all season thus far? When you see the final numbers, it’s unnerving.

Overall, in five games, Virginia has combined in passing and running to produced 68 plays of 10 yards or more. That’s 13.6 per game. That ranks 75th in the NCAA. The Hoos have produced 15 plays of 20 yards or more. That’s three 20-plus plays per game. 111 FBS teams have more.

A season ago, the Cavaliers posted 253 10-plus yard plays (No. 5 NCAA). That’s 21.08 per game. In the 20+-yard category, Virginia boasted 91 (No.4 NCAA) or 7.78 per game.

In the good news column, Virginia is 36th nationally with 29 (5.8/per game) explosive rushing plays in 2022. The Hoos are 94th with only four rushing plays (0.8) of 20 yards or more. Last year, the Cavaliers had 57 (4.75/game) rushing plays of 10 yards or greater and 16 (1.33/game) plays of 20-plus. The team is trending better on the 10+ but is lagging 2021 on the 20+.

As you likely have already guessed, the data gets worse when it come to the passing game.

The Hoos have managed to connect on a mere 39 passes over 10 yards, which ranks 94th nationally. They have only 11 receptions over 20 yards, which ranks 105th in the NCAA. Last season, the Wahoos averaged 16.3 10-plus yard passes per game, which ranked them second in the country. The offense had 75 passes longer than 20 yards, which was No. 4 in the NCAA, for an average of 6.26 per game. Let’s go one more level where we see the Hoos recording six 30-plus yard passes or 1.2 per game compared to last fall’s 26, which ranked 26th nationally.

Here's a look at the per game averages for all the relevant levels for the last two seasons.

2021 2022
16.3 passes x 10 yards = 163 yards 7.8 passes x 10 yards = 78 yards
6.26 x 20 = 125.2 2.2 x 20 = 44
2.16 x 30 = 64.8 1.2 x 30 = 36
0.91 x 40 = 36.4 0.8 x 40 = 32
0.33 x 50 = 16.5 0.6 x 50 = 30
0.25 x 60 = 15 0.4 x 60 = 24
0.16 x 70 = 11.2
Total average yards: 431.9 Total average yards: 244.0
Difference: -187.9 yards

Why does all this matter?

Virginia is down 187.9 yards in explosive passing play yardage since last season. In the chart below, you’ll see the Hoos total offense numbers for the last two seasons. The per game rushing yards differential has improved by 31.4 yards per game in 2022 but total passing yards, however, is down 182.5 yards per game.

The Hoos are clearly down in total offense. Could the lack of explosive plays be the issue? I say yes.

Virginia’s averaged 516.3 yards per game in total offense in 2021. This season the per game average is 364.4, a difference of 151.9 yards.

As the bottom third of the below chart shows, the variance between UVA’s per game total offense in 2021 and this year is 151.9 yards. The majority of that differential (99.47%) comes from the passing game, offset only by the 31.4 average explosive rushing yards increase.

Virginia Offense Comparison
Rush Total Yards/Carry Yards/Game
2021 1,485 4.38 123.7
2022 772 4.54 154.4
Difference +0.16 +31.4
Pass Total Yards/Pass Yards/Game
2021 4,711 8.5 392.5
2022 1,050 5.9 210.0
Difference -2.6 -182.5
Passing/Game Rushing/Game Total/Game
2021 392.8 123.7 516.3
2022 210.0 154.4 364.4
Difference -182.8 +30.7 -151.9