The NCAA delayed the start of basketball season due to concerns with the ongoing pandemic, but tipoff week is finally here and anticipation is high for Virginia and its fans. The Cavaliers enter the season ranked No. 4 in The Associated Press preseason poll and as the media favorite to win the ACC regular season race. Before the season starts, however, there are questions to consider for the Wahoos.
Let’s take a look at the annual 10 preseason questions for Tony Bennett’s team. Part I is below. For Part II, click here.
10. What does the season look like during a pandemic?
You can’t really discuss anything in 2020 without considering COVID-19 and its potential influence. That’s especially true with sports. College basketball season came to a screeching halt in March as the coronavirus outbreak started to surge in America and leagues have dealt with attendance restrictions, postponements, and cancellations since returning to play. Through late November, most fall sports have figured out ways to shuffle schedules and keep many games intact somewhere on the calendar.
Basketball, held in indoor venues, figures to face similar challenges but season maintenance may be even more daunting. The rosters are smaller, most of the players and coaches have direct interaction, and protocols for contact tracing and quarantine could keep entire teams from being available for a game vs. a football team playing with 10 or more athletes out. Plus, the schedule features more than double the amount of games even with the NCAA cutting it back to 26 or 27 contests this season. Basketball teams usually play two to three games per week so any issues could lead to four to six games needing to be moved or cancelled vs. just two to three for a football team over the same amount of time.
Unfortunately, Virginia already has experienced this first hand and the season hasn’t even started yet. The Cavaliers agreed to play two games at the Mohegan Sun as part of a “Bubbleville” concept and their season is scheduled to begin there later this week. Florida, UVA’s Friday opponent, withdrew from the event, though. The Gators put their program on pause due to coronavirus issues. Baylor coach Scott Drew tested positive for the virus, but the Bears were still planning to travel without him to Connecticut for their games scheduled there because the rest of the team currently has tested negative. Some of Baylor’s opponents, however, have withdrawn from playing the Bears at the Mohegan Sun.
That has created some early week speculation that the Cavaliers could play Arizona State on Friday instead. The Sun Devils were supposed to face Baylor. There’s also some speculation about the possibility of UVA and Villanova playing their scheduled game for Dec. 19 at Madison Square Garden early in Connecticut. Nova had Baylor scheduled at the Sun this week too.
In other words, the moving parts are already moving. That could simply be par for the course this season. So it’s best for players, coaches, and fans to be ready for shifts on a regular and potentially sudden basis. Which teams handle that the best could play a role in how this season plays out in the win-loss columns.
9. What impact will Sam Hauser make?
Outside pundits are high on Virginia’s chances this season and fans are excited about the possibilities, in part, because of a single player: Sam Hauser. The senior transfer from Marquette sat out last season as required by NCAA rule, but he’s now eligible to take the court in orange and blue. He brings a proven track record to the table as a second-team All-Big East selection in his junior year.
Over three seasons, Hauser started 97 of 101 possible games. That included every game as a sophomore and junior. In his final season with the Golden Eagles, he averaged 14.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He scored in double figures in 28 of 34 games with 6 double-doubles to his credit, including one in the NCAA Tournament. Hauser shot 40.2% from 3-point range as a junior when he made 88 triples. That all adds up to a highly productive player in a major basketball conference and it’s easy to see why the media named him first team All-ACC in the preseason voting.
So Hauser can play. He’s already proven that. The question then is how that will translate to UVA.
The Cavaliers, obviously, think he fits well within their system and current roster. They recruited him heavily out of high school and built a relationship that paid off when he decided to transfer. Hauser slides into the mold of a versatile wing forward that can play in either traditional lineups or in small ball lineups. That’s the spot occupied by De’Andre Hunter, Braxton Key, and to some extent Mamadi Diakite in recent seasons.
In some ways, Hauser is a blend of those players offensively with a higher volume of 3-pointers included. He can play in the mid-post area a step or two off the lane where Diakite was the most effective like posts before him (Mike Scott, Anthony Gill, and Darion Atkins for example). He can play in the high post isolation area like Hunter and somewhat Key. He’s also an effective spot-up shooter and 3-point marksman like Hunter, but at a much higher volume. Hunter made 43.8% of his 3’s in 2019 on 46-105 shooting, while Hauser hit 88-219 that same year at Marquette.
In short, that’s a player that Virginia can move around effectively to get quality looks and matchups regardless of lineups. That’s important for a lineup that needs the spacing that Hauser should provide. Kihei Clark, the Hoos’ starting point guard, is a solid creator out of ball screen situations if the lane is opened up by shooters. Plus, he’s a solid passer that can get Hauser the ball in the spots he will be most effective. Jay Huff, one the starting posts on the team, is a versatile inside-out player to that offers the ability to space the floor for Hauser or create a potential high-low tandem that will be tough to defend. The fact that Hauser blends in so well with those two should help anyone else on the floor.
The challenge for Hauser is to hold up on the defensive end. He’s a better defender than many assume based on part of his time at Marquette, but he has to do that within the Pack Line system.
If it all goes well? He could be a postseason All-ACC pick too and a candidate for ACC Player of the Year. That would help Virginia continue its successful run in the conference over the past six years.
8. How many players will be in the rotation?
Every offseason when college rosters turn over, there’s plenty of discussion about minutes and how any newcomers will fare with a team. That conversation this season for Virginia is an interesting one. The Cavaliers lost Diakite and Key, two versatile defenders that covered a lot of ground and prevented a lot of problems. They fill that in with Hauser and a highly regarded recruiting class that features two top 100 players and a sharp-shooter from inside the top 150. (Plus, they added Rice transfer Trey Murphy III, one of the top transfer recruits on the market this past spring. There had been some murmurs that he applied for a waiver to be eligible to play immediately and he received that waiver. If he enters the rotation equation, things could get shuffled quickly.)
That cast of newcomers joins not only Clark and Huff, but a group of returners that includes Casey Morsell, Kody Stattmann, and Tomas Woldetensae. That trio either started on the wing or subbed in regularly throughout last season. They played significant roles on a team that won 11 of its last 12 games and were key contributors on the team that posted the best defensive efficiency mark of the Bennett era to date. It’s no secret, of course, that Morsell and Stattmann struggled with consistency in the shooting and scoring department, while Woldetensae seemed to roll back and forth between scorching hot or not on target with his shooting.
That sets up an interesting competition for minutes. The experienced side of things has been through the ACC battles and helped produce a 15-5 league mark. Last year’s team proved, as Bennett put it recently, that it could win with its defense and the coaches haven’t spotted the same level so far in the extended preseason for this year’s team. Everyone knows that Bennett values that piece of the puzzle. With the known ability from the returning corps on defense, it could be tempting to project big minutes to that side of the ledger.
The counter argument is that last year’s team danced down a razor’s edge to get those wins - 8 of wins in that 11 of 12 closing stretch came by 3 points or fewer and a ninth came by 5 points. The main culprit for such stressful contests: an offense that struggled minute by minute to consistently put the ball in the basket and at times with turnovers. Even a slight uptick offensively could relieve some of the pressure on the defensive end. That potentially could push some minutes toward the newcomers.
Hauser is expected to help offensively right off the bat, but Beekman and Abdur-Rahim both offer skillsets that other returning players have not displayed. Beekman is another lead guard that can help Clark facilitate and set up others; the lack of assists from other players was a notable contributor to last season’s offensive issues. Abdur-Rahim is a player that can create his own shot and potentially get to the free throw line; the latter can help break up offensive droughts in a hurry.
The decisions just among those 5 players could determine if this season’s rotation extends out to 9 or 10 players or settles into the more familiar 8 in many of Bennett’s years with UVA to date. The conversation starts with who meshes well with Clark, Huff, and Hauser. That trio is going to start, play a lot of minutes, and carry a high usage percentage offensively. If you can play defense and make that threesome more dangerous with supporting offense, you’re going to have a chance to soak up minutes.
It’s probably fair to assume that either Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick (or potentially both?) will get some run as the only options to back-up Huff against teams with a traditional center. If you add 4 of the 5 wings discussed above - Morsell, Stattmann, Woldetensae, Beekman, and Abdur-Rahim - then you’re already to the 8-man plateau that is typical for most years under Bennett. To push the rotation out to 9 or 10 players (or more), you’d need the 5th wing, whichever of Caffaro or Shedrick didn’t get backup minutes to Huff, and returning forward Justin McKoy to get into the conversation.
Personally, I think a 9-player rotation with spot minutes elsewhere is the most likely result of this derby over the long haul. In a typical game without foul problems (or injury/virus issues), I’d project it to look like this to get to 200 minutes: Clark (35), Hauser (33), Huff (28), Morsell (22), Woldetensae (22), Beekman (17), Abdur-Rahim (17), Caffaro (11), and McKoy (10). I lean toward McKoy here (again, not considering Murphy) because I think the frontcourt needs a body as another rebounder and the versatility to defend multiple spots, the role that Key, Isaiah Wilkins, and others have played previously. I’m not sure Abdur-Rahim, Stattmann, or others are ready physically to do that defensively and I don’t think Hauser will play all of his minutes as a small ball forward.
Of course, it’s possible that Stattmann continues to plug away and stay closer to his 21 minutes from a year ago vs. in a situational role. That leaves the other wings with fewer minutes and expands the rotation further (if you took 2 minutes from Morsell, Woldetensae, Beekman, and Abdur-Rahim, for example, you’d bump Stattmann to 13 and create a deal where each of that quintet was playing 13-20 minutes. That’s a 10-man rotation with no spot minutes in a typical game. I don’t think this is a situation where the freshmen won’t play at all or play relatively few minutes - I think this is an expanded rotation or a freshman only situation for this particular roster in this particular year. As noted above, I think Beekman and Abdur-Rahim bring specific skills that are much needed and playing time will follow. The only question is how much and how does that ripple out to the rest of the roster.
It will be interesting to see how it shuffles out during the season.
7. What does Jay Huff’s ceiling look like?
The time has come. A year that some zealous fans thought may never get here due to his potential has arrived: the redshirt senior year of Jay Huff. Or alter ego Sean Doubletary. Or Jaybraham Lincoln. Or The Hoonicorn. Yeah, he’s a fan favorite without a doubt for his personality on nicknames like that, but also because he has high level skills in a 7-foot frame with enormous upside still in play.
Since arriving at Virginia, Huff has made steady progress in his development as he moved from a skinny teenager to a 240-pound man over the course of the last five years. His playing time arrived slowly at first with 12 appearances for 106 minutes as a redshirt freshman to 34 games for 318 minutes as a sophomore to 30 games with 18 starts and 748 minutes last season. He crossed the 1,000-minute threshold down the stretch last season and as has happened for many before him in the Bennett era, another step in production followed.
During UVA’s closing 8-game winning streak, Huff scored 8 points or more in 5 games, grabbed 5 rebounds or more in 6 games, made at least one 3-pointer in 5 games (at better than a 40% rate in 4), and 2 blocked shots or more in 6 games. By the way, he made 7 of his final 9 free throws too (77.8%) in the final 5 games after struggling at the line before that (54.0% for the season). At the same time, he had 3 fouls or less in 6 of those final games as well.
Huff led the nation in defensive rating at 82.2 (.822 efficiency rating), though that’s an estimate as an individual statistic. He led UVA in rebounding percentage, including defensive rebounding percentage at 20.5% (how many rebounds grabbed off of rebounds available while you’re on the floor) and was 7th in the ACC in that category. He led the ACC in block percentage too at 11.1% (2-point shots blocked out of shots taken while you’re on the floor). He posted career-high averages of 8.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game.
In other words, Huff put together a really good year for his first time as a regular starter and consistent minutes getter. As one of the 3 experienced players expected to set the tone and carry this year’s team, he’s in line to do even better as a senior. The question is what that might look like.
Beginning with Jerome Meyinsee back in 2009-2010, senior big men have often done well in the Bennett era. Meyinsee went from a single start in his career previously with an average of less than 2.0 points per game to starting 23 games with an average of 6.5 points and 4.1 rebounds on 58% shooting that season. Mike Scott already had put together a solid career, but he finished things off in 2011-2012 by leading the team to the NCAA Tournament with his best scoring season in a Cavalier uniform. He started all 32 games and posted 18.0 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game on 57.7% shooting, all career bests for a full season.
Akil Mitchell actually saw his numbers go down as a senior offensively as he and Joe Harris yielded touches for the good of the team, but he had the first dominant defensive season of the Bennett era en route to first-team All-ACC defensive honors. In 2014-2015, Darion Atkins made the jump with career-best averages of 7.6 points and 6.0 rebounds. He was the ACC and National Defensive Player of the Year as well.
In 2015-2016, Anthony Gill followed with a career-best average of 13.8 points while shooting a career-best 74.6% from the free throw line. He maintained his rebounding and shooting percentage numbers while improving defensively that season too. That same year, Mike Tobey’s stretch run was strong as he finished with a flourish too. Just last season, Mamadi Diakite followed with career highs in points and rebounds. He averaged 13.7 points and 6.8 rebounds.
That’s a pattern. The question is how high that ceiling may be for Huff, especially since he’ll be sharing touches with fellow senior Hauser. Still, it’s not unrealistic to think career-high numbers are attainable, which would mean topping last year’s 8.5 points and 6.2 boards plus upping his career free throw percentage of 59.1%. That won’t be too much of a reach if he simply picks up where he finished those final 8 games when he averaged 9.25 points and 6.4 rebounds while shooting 66.7% from the free throw line. Can he nudge that to a double-digit scoring average like Gill and Diakite? I think a 11, 7, and 2 line for points, rebounds, and blocks is possible.
It’s going to be fun to watch his senior season unfold.
6. Who is the ‘X factor’ this year?
In this slot every year, this is often a toss-up question with multiple players as the possible answer. The possible candidates for this team seem to be Casey Morsell, Justin McKoy, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, and Reece Beekman because it’s not completely clear how many minutes any of them might play and how that impacts the rest of the rotation possibilities. On a recent podcast, I pointed to Beekman as my leading candidate for “role player of the year” because I think he’s going to be a key playmaker and consistent piece of the puzzle. But, there’s one name that in the preseason at least appears to be a huge ‘X factor’ because waiver rumblings have crept up in recent weeks: Trey Murphy III.
It started with this Tweet that sounded like Murphy was hinting at immediate eligibility. Then Coach Bennett sort of side-stepped the question at UVA Media Day when he was asked if Murphy had applied for or received a transfer waiver. Then this Tweet pictured the uniforms packed for the trip to Connecticut this week popped up on Monday - and, yes, it included uniforms for Murphy.
Got @UVAMensHoops packed up for the first road trip of the season#UniSwag | #GoHoos
?⚔️?? pic.twitter.com/n49odm20gE— Matthew Althoff (@AlthoffEQ) November 24, 2020
That’s an awful lot of smoke.
If that means Murphy joins the fray immediately in a year where no one loses eligibility if they play per the NCAA, it could really mix things up for the Hoos. Murphy has grown to 6’9” and gives UVA another option in that swing forward versatility category. It also ups the experience factor because Murphy has played 2 seasons already in Conference USA where he started 23 games for Rice last season. He led his team in scoring (13.7), was second in 3-pointers made (75 on 36.8% shooting) and free throw percentage (82.4%), and was third in rebounds (5.5). That doesn’t account for the fact that he was initially recruited as a 6’4” wing too before hitting a college growth spurt so his lateral movement defensively is a plus and could make him a strong defender within Virginia’s scheme.
Imagine a lineup where Beekman (6’3”), Woldetensae (6’5”), Hauser (6’8”), Murphy (6’9”), and Huff (7’1”) share the floor. That’s a lot of length with 4 players that boast career 3-point percentages of 44.5% (Hauser), 39.0% (Murphy), 38.5% (Huff), and 36.1% (Woldetensae, who was a 47.6% 3-point shooter at the JUCO level). There would be questions with ballhandling, but that’s a big lineup with shooting ability. Or, what if UVA needed a small ball lineup for matchups or foul trouble? It could possibly go with Morsell, Abdur-Rahim, Hauser, and Murphy to put a trio of 6’7” to 6’9” guys in the frontcourt with 4 players capable of switching on defense. You could go on.
Obviously, you could say similar things about McKoy or Abdur-Rahim in some ways, but neither of those players have logged the college minutes that Murphy has. He piled up 1,535 minutes in 2 seasons at Rice, meaning he’s played more minutes in college than anyone on UVA’s roster other than Clark and Hauser. If he’s eligible (editor's note: he received the waiver after publication of this article) and has picked things up in the preseason, he could definitely be an ‘X factor’ for the team. If not, keep an eye on Morsell. More on that in Part II.
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