The University of Virginia football program’s return to its winning ways is the product of culture and established success. Determination and confidence kept UVA afloat while enduring October struggles, paving the way for the Hoos to make improvements that have helped secure earn wins over North Carolina and Louisville. With a win over Abilene Christian this Saturday, UVA can return to .500 with three more ACC games left to play.

What has Virginia football been able to turnaround the past two weeks?

First Quarter Success

Although UVA won its season-opener over Duke, 38-20, the Blue Devils outscored the Hoos 10-0 in the first quarter. The Cavaliers did not score a point in the first quarter until game four against Wake Forest, when they posted three points. Duke, Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest outscored UVA in the first quarter, 48-3.

If Wake Forest was a step in the right direction, Miami was a breakthrough of sorts. After allowing an easy touchdown to the Hurricanes, the then 1-3 Hoos responded with their first touchdown drive of the first quarter all season long to tie the game at 7-7. The score would hold, making it the first time this season Virginia had not trailed after the first quarter.

Virginia, which ultimately lost to Miami 19-14, outscored North Carolina, 13-10, in the first quarter the next week. The Hoos went on to defeat the Tar Heels, 44-41. This past Saturday, UVA outscored Louisville, 7-3, en route to a 31-17 win over the Cardinals. Junior outside linebacker Noah Taylor’s 85-yard interception return was the only touchdown of the quarter ... maybe not the fast start Mendenhall envisioned, but a good start on the scoreboard nonetheless.

“Critical,” Mendenhall said of Taylor’s touchdown. “We took the ball and were expecting a lot more success offensively. We went three and out after the decision that I made to take the ball by winning the toss. So, that didn’t go as planned, and then Louisville was moving the football consistently and they’re down in our red zone. And so, man, that play was just a critical turn of events to kind of recapture the momentum we were hopeful to orchestrate with our decision at the beginning of the game.”

Nick Grant's (#1) fourth quarter strip of Malik Cunningham was one of three crucial turnovers Virginia football forced against Louisville. ~ Photo courtesy Matt Riley/Virginia Athletics Media Relations

Turnovers and Points Off Turnovers

Virginia is 3-0 this season when winning the turnover battle.

The Hoos had three turnovers (2 interceptions, 1 fumble) but forced seven in the win over Duke. UVA forced only one turnover and had a negative turnover margin in each of the next four games, surrendering the football a season-high four times in week three versus NC State.

Miami again was a breakthrough of sorts. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong, sidelined for the second half of the NC State game and all of the Wake Forest game with a concussion, did not throw an interception against the Hurricanes. He had thrown six interceptions in Virginia’s first three games.

Armstrong has played much better turnover-wise since his return, throwing one interception against North Carolina and another against Louisville. Meanwhile, UVA has had a plus-1 turnover margin in the wins over UNC (Virginia had on turnover to UNC’s two) and Louisville (UVA had two turnovers to UL’s three).

“The three turnovers and the two fourth-down stops, I thought, were the difference,” Mendenhall said in his Louisville postgame press conference. “And it’s always hard to say it was the difference. There’s counter arguments to it, I know there is. But I think that changed the game and I think that ultimately was the difference between both teams. We struggled all night tackling their quarterback, keeping him contained. Designed runs worked for them against us. The quarterback scramble worked against us and [Malik Cunningham] really did an amazing job. We did make those five plays and critical stops and then scored once [on defense], which really changed the outcome. So, while there were challenges, the positive plays kind of overrode the challenges in terms of the outcome of the game.”

When Virginia has forced turnovers, it has generally done a nice job of turning them into points. In its three wins, UVA scored 49 points – 21 vs. Duke, 14 vs. UNC, 14 vs. Louisville – off of 12 turnovers.

Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest posted 37 points combined off of nine Cavalier miscues.

Sacks & Turnovers

When Virginia piles up the sacks and creates turnovers, the Hoos are tough to beat.

Versus Duke, UVA racked up five sacks and forced seven turnovers. The Hoos totaled five sacks and forced two turnovers versus North Carolina and had four sacks and three forced turnovers against Louisville.

Virginia struggled to get to the quarterback in weeks two through four, recording five sacks total against Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest. UVA forced just one turnover in that span. The Hoos enjoyed success in the sack department against Miami (five sacks) but could not turn the Hurricanes over.

Louisville Notables

- For the third consecutive game, Virginia has had more running plays than pass plays.

Against Miami, the Hoos rushed 35 times and passed 31 times. Against North Carolina, UVA rushed 51 times and passed 22 times. This past Saturday Virginia finished with 42 runs and 23 passes, totaling 165 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

Although the coaches wanted to see him run less (Mendenhall said postgame that there were few designed runs for Armstrong in hopes of keeping him healthy), Armstrong led the Cavaliers in carries (15), yards (60), and touchdowns (2) in the win over the Cardinals. UVA tailbacks finished with 25 carries for 102 yards, highlighted by a 12-carry, 50-yard performance from graduate transfer Shane Simpson. Receiver Billy Kemp IV chipped in three yards on two carries.

- Armstrong continues to have his ups and downs in terms of accuracy. Some “ups” on Saturday included a 21-yard pass to Lavel Davis Jr. in the first quarter where he held a defender by looking at Wayne Taulapapa in the flat before turning and throwing an on-the-money pass to Davis Jr. downfield.

Another plus throw came in the fourth quarter, with UVA facing a 3rd-and-9 from its 36 and holding a 24-17 lead. Armstrong looked right, came back left and threw a strike to Billy Kemp IV on a wide receiver screen. Kemp IV took the perfect pass and raced 29 yards for a first down. Armstrong scored on a touchdown run five plays later to give his team a two-touchdown advantage.

A miss came on 1st-and-10 from the Louisville 11, when Armstrong short-armed a wide open Grant Misch in the end zone for what should have been an easy touchdown. UVA had to settle for a Brian Delaney 23-yard field goal to take a 24-17 lead. Armstrong’s lone interception could have been a miss as well, though Davis Jr. fell down on the play.

True freshman wide receiver Lavel Davis Jr. made his presence felt against Louisville. ~ Photo courtesy Matt Riley/Virginia Athletics Media Relations

- Star true freshman wide receiver Lavel Davis Jr. returned to the field after missing the Miami and North Carolina games. The 6’7”, 200-pound first year showed why he was missed, hauling in four receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown against Louisville.

Virginia’s best downfield threat, Davis Jr. was in on three of UVA’s six big pass plays (15+ yard plays) in Saturday’s win. He hauled in the aforementioned 21-yard catch in the first quarter, a 20-yard reception in the second quarter, and a 24-yard catch early in the fourth quarter. Virginia scored a touchdown and a field goal on the latter two drives, and the freshman probably received an earful from coach Marques Hagans on the 24-yarder, as he drew a personal foul unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting, which moved the ball from the Louisville 6 to the 21.

Davis Jr. added an 8-yard touchdown catch on UVA’s first drive of the second half, putting the Hoos up 21-10.

In five games played, Davis Jr. has 13 receptions for 284 yards and four touchdowns. He is averaging 21.8 yards per catch.

“I think you saw it – just the vertical stretch downfield and his length and his speed and just, it keeps defenses as they want to defend our run game, as they want to defend our quarterback, they just have to know there’s a bigger risk,” Mendenhall said of Davis Jr.’s impact. “Just the three or four or ever how many receptions he had, they stand out. It makes defensive coordinators and defensive players more hesitant to get closer. So he’s making progress and that helps our offense.”

- Outside linebackers Noah Taylor and Charles Snowden have obviously come on strong the past few weeks, with Taylor’s interception return against Louisville and Snowden totaling five sacks and a forced fumble the past two games. For me, though, inside linebackers Zane Zandier and Nick Jackson are the heart of the defense this season. The duo performed well once again this past Saturday. Jackson (10) and Zandier (8) were the top two tacklers, and both players had a sack. Zandier forced the game-clinching fumble in the fourth quarter.

- Virginia football fans finally got to see running back Ronnie Walker Jr. make his Cavalier debut. The former Hopewell High School (VA) star rushed five times for 20 yards, including an 11-yard run on his first carry as a Cavalier.

“It felt great to finally carry the ball as a Cavalier, with my brothers that I’ve been working with since this summer,” Walker Jr. said. “I know I faced some adversity, but I’m blessed to have the opportunity to help secure this win. Wahoowa!”

The Indiana transfer’s waiver application for immediate eligibility was denied during this summer, but after multiple appeals Walker Jr. was finally declared eligible to play this season for the Cavaliers. He was declared eligible on October 14 but missed the next several weeks due to illness.

- True freshman receiver Demick Starling made the first reception of his Cavalier career. It went for six yards, but what was impressive was he brought in the catch around the line of scrimmage and patiently maneuvered around the first defender to gain a solid six yards. The speedy first year showed some nice poise there.

It was a nice scene on the sideline following the play, as teammates swarmed Starling to congratulate him.

- While UVA welcomed the return of Davis Jr. to the lineup and the debut of Walker Jr., the Hoos may have some significant injuries on offense. The versatile Keytaon Thompson, productive as a receiver, running back and Wildcat quarter, did not play against the Cardinals. His issue presumably was not COVID-19 related as UVA announced hours before the game that no players had tested positive. Thompson’s status moving forward is unknown.

Graduate transfer Tony Poljan started but did not finish the Louisville game. The 6’7”, 260-pound tight end looked to be headed towards a touchdown on a deep middle pass from Armstrong in the first quarter, but as he approached the goal line he took a big hit from Louisville’s Marlon Character and fumbled. Poljan, who has started every game this season for the Hoos, has racked up 25 receptions for 223 yards and four touchdowns. If he is out, Virginia will be without one of its top playmakers as well as an effective run-blocker, and Grant Misch would be the only scholarship tight end who has seen significant action this season.

Pro Football Focus Notables

- Lavel Davis Jr. had the highest overall offense grade (77.6) while Noah Taylor had the highest overall defensive grade (88.6).

Davis Jr. was the only offensive player to grade out in the 70s overall, though Brennan Armstrong (69.8) and Terrell Jana (68.6) almost reached the 70 mark.

Four Cavalier defenders earned Pro Football Focus grades over 70 – Taylor, safety Antonio Clary (78.8), Nick Jackson (78.2) and cornerback Nick Grant (73.8). Grant, who had the highest coverage grade of the defensive back group (82.6), made one of the biggest plays of the game when he ripped the ball away from Malik Cunningham in the fourth quarter. Cunningham had once again broken through the defense, rushing 27 yards into UVA territory before Grant forced the turnover. The UVA offense scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive to take a 31-17 lead.

- Sophomore Antonio Clary, thrust into a starting role because of injuries to Joey Blount and Brenton Nelson, received fewer defensive snaps (37) than he did against Miami (82) and North Carolina (49), but he had his best overall defensive grade of the season.

PFF assigned Clary a 78.8 defense grade overall, an 81.7 run defense grade, an 85.2 tackle grade and a 73.4 coverage grade. The run defense and tackle grades were the highest of any Cavalier defender.

The Wake Forest game, in which Clary was credited with 36 defensive snaps, was his second-best overall defense grade (70.4).

Redshirt sophomore defensive back Coen King earned 55 defensive snaps according to Pro Football Focus, the most in his Cavalier career. The former walk-on-turned-scholarship-player had his second-best coverage grade (65.8) behind his performance against UNC (68.6). King was credited with six tackles (two solo) in the win over Louisville.