Virginia has won 3 straight games.
Kihei Clark dished out 10 assists against Clemson. ~ Kris Wright

The Virginia basketball team picked up a pair of crucial home wins against Florida State and Clemson as it tries to play itself into positive NCAA Tournament position as league games tick away. The Hoos topped the Seminoles 61-56 and the Tigers 51-44 as they put together a three-game winning streak while the calendar flipped from January to February.

Like many of the games before this season, getting those two wins required some tense moments in the closing minutes. UVA took the lead against FSU in the final minute and turned away a Clemson rally in the second half that saw the visitors line up several shot attempts to lead or tie in the last six minutes.

What else stood out from the ACC victories? The Double Bonus is back to look closer at the contests and some trends for the Wahoos.

Should Every Team Play Zone Against Virginia?

The Cavaliers came out of the gates clicking on offense against the Tigers. They led 7-0 and 14-2 thanks to early 3’s from Braxton Key and Tomas Woldetensae plus dunks from Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff. The Hoos were breaking down the defense with a combination of ball screens and some traditional ‘sides’ motion away screens. Many of the early buckets were uncontested looks.

At some point. Clemson coach Brad Brownell had seen enough so he went to a zone his team uses “occasionally” to try to settle things down. It looked like a 3-2 setup, but it morphed and moved like a matchup zone with the lower defenders often following a UVA player into the high post, the top defender often dropping deep into the paint, and two players treating any ball screens on the side of the floor with man-to-man type rules. UVA coach Tony Bennett said the Cavaliers were “spinning the wheel trying to figure out” what to run against it at times due to the matchup principles.

While Kody Stattmann drove for a bucket and Diakite added a 3-pointer to put the hosts up 19-7 after the switch, it slowed Virginia down over time. Between the 6:00 mark of the first half when Diakite hit that triple to the 4:50 mark of the second half when Braxton Key made another trey, Virginia managed just 17 points in 21 minutes of action. Clemson, of course, climbed back into the game during that time and cut the lead to 36-34 before UVA finally put the game away.

Obviously, the fact that the Tigers found some success with a zone defense, Virginia fans on the message boards and elsewhere have pondered why everyone doesn’t use that strategy against the Hoos? I thought the Synergy Sports data could help shed a little light on that.

At this point in the season, UVA has faced halfcourt man defense on 70.7% of possessions (971 total). On those possessions, the Cavaliers have averaged 0.78 points per possession (ppp) on 43.9% adjusted field goal shooting (to account for 3’s). They have scored at least one point on 36% of possessions with an 11% free throw rate and an 18.1% turnover rate.

On the other hand, UVA has faced zone defense on 29.3% of possessions (403 total). On those possessions, the Cavaliers have averaged 0.784 ppp on 44.2% adjusted field goal shooting. They have scored at least one point on 35.2% of possessions with a 7.9% free throw rate and a 14.6% turnover rate.

So, comparing the two shows that opponents give up about the same results with man vs. zone against Virginia, but they create more turnovers (and thus empty possessions) with a man scheme.

Looking a little deeper, the Hoos get better results near the rim against zone offense - 1.098 ppp on shots around the basket that aren’t postups against man vs. 1.224 ppp on shots around the basket that aren’t postups against zone. UVA has shot 28.3% on 3’s against man (70-247) vs. 25.5% on 3’s against zone (37 of 145).

One last note, teams that have played a lot of zone against Virginia (30 possessions or more) have not gotten wins. The Cavaliers are 6-1 against those teams, the exception being the overtime loss to Syracuse in Charlottesville. Clemson (31 zone possessions), Wake Forest (72), Georgia Tech (34), Navy (30), JMU (52), and Syracuse (59) all lost, while the Orange (82) got payback the next time around.

Virginia has won 3 straight games.
Mamadi Diakite lines up a free throw for the Hoos. ~ Mike Ingalls

Mamadi And The Stretch Run

Is there just something about the ending stretch of a season that seems to suit Mamadi Diakite?

After all, the redshirt senior is showing some familiar signs of settling in for the Hoos. In four of the last six outings, Diakite has been not only solid statistically but showing a greater comfort level and less forced play. In the last three games, following 5 turnovers against Georgia Tech and possibly his worst showing of the season against NC State, Diakite has been outstanding.

Against Wake Forest, he put up 16 points on 70% shooting with 7 rebounds and just 1 turnover. In the FSU rematch, he went for 19 points on 60% shooting with 9 rebounds and 2 turnovers. Then Wednesday against Clemson, he tallied 13 points and 8 rebounds with 2 turnovers.

It’s reminiscent of the late-year surges from the last two years for Diakite, though that came in a much different role so the jump statistically is more noticeable. As a sophomore, he went through January with seven games of 4 or fewer points and seven games of 2 or fewer rebounds. He followed that with 9+ points in six of the last 12 games and 3+ rebounds in six of the last 12 games.

As a junior, he had just five games with 7+ points and two games with 6+ rebounds before Jan. 5. A big game against Boston College with 18 and 7 on Jan. 9 was a brief flash before three more ho-hum games followed. Starting on Jan. 22 against Wake Forest, however, Diakite started to play more consistently. He recorded 11 points and 7 rebounds against Wake and had 7+ points in 14 of the final 21 games and 6+ rebounds in 14 of the final 21 games. That included 7+ points in five of the six NCAA Tournament games and 6+ rebounds in all six contests that led to the National Championship.

What will the senior year stretch run look like for Diakite? It may be harder to pick out differences statistically this year thanks to a much higher usage rate that comes with a bigger role. Diakite, after all, has been a consistent producer this year in the points and rebounds categories. He’s scored in single digits just four times all season and he’s posted 13 or more points in 14 of 21 games. He’s also had 6+ rebounds in 17 of 21 games. By the way, he’s also just 4 blocked shots away from passing Chris Alexander for No. 2 on the UVA all-time list.

Still, aside from the statistics, it will be interesting to watch how Diakite handles it if opponents swarm him on defense near the basket. Will he let the game come to him and find ways to work his inside-outside skills in tandem vs. forcing the issue, which led to turnovers earlier in the year? Will he balance shot selection with aggressiveness? Diakite recently noted that Kihei Clark called him the conscience of the team in a practice, something he seemed to embrace. A calm and confident Diakite down the stretch will go a long ways to helping the Hoos as the season heads toward March.

Defensive Thoughts

The Virginia basketball team is known for defense. Of course. Announcers and analysts spend large parts of broadcasts discussing the defense, the Pack Line scheme, the chemistry on rotations, and more. They even talk some about UVA’s reputation on defense being something that helps fuel the success. Still, there are a couple of areas that I think go overlooked when looking at the Hoos’ defense. Blocks and steals.

Obviously, the point of the Pack Line is not to generate those two categories in high numbers. The Cavaliers want to seal off the paint and force contested jumpers if possible. That by design allows some passes around the perimeter where other teams might try to steal those and tries to prevent shots near the rim and that reduces block attempts at times. Still, for a team that doesn’t bank on those categories, the Wahoos produce a strong block rate and a consistent steal rate year after year.

Virginia is routinely a top 75 team (out of 353 teams) in block rate - the estimated number of two-point shots blocked - and is safely inside the top half of the nation in steal rate - steals per possession - over the back half of the Tony Bennett era. Wednesday’s game with Clemson highlighted the blocked shot trend again as the Hoos swatted 7 shots away. They had 4 blocked shots against FSU as well and are up to 92 blocked shots on the season. UVA also has 119 steals.

Here is a look at the block rate during Bennett’s tenure. This year’s team is currently tied for the best rate with the 2013 team and currently holds the highest national ranking in the category yet.

Block Rate

  • 2020: 8.7% (20th)
  • 2019: 7.5% (46th)
  • 2018: 7.3% (54th)
  • 2017: 8.3% (31st)
  • 2016: 6.4% (129th)
  • 2015: 8.5% (41st)
  • 2014: 8.0% (70th)
  • 2013: 8.7% (31st)
  • 2012: 5.5% (205th)
  • 2011: 5.7% (199th)
  • 2010: 4.8% (253rd)
Here is a look at the steal rate during Bennett’s tenure as well.

Steals

  • 2020: 9.1% (142nd)
  • 2019: 8.9% (150th)
  • 2018: 11.0% (13th)
  • 2017: 8.9% (139th)
  • 2016: 8.6% (151st)
  • 2015: 9.1% (173rd)
  • 2014: 8.3% (208th)
  • 2013: 9.4% (194th)
  • 2012: 10.4% (98th)
  • 2011: 9.1% (174th)
  • 2010: 9.4% (186th)

Huff’s Hedges

After the Florida State game, Jordan Sperber of Hoop Vision posted a video on his Twitter account highlighting the play of Jay Huff on defense. Specifically, Sperber spotlighted Huff’s repeated hedge defense - when a screener’s defender places himself in the path of a dribbler using an on-ball screen - as a key in the win against the Seminoles. With that video, embedded below, still fresh in the minds of UVA fans, I asked Tony Bennett about it during his weekly ACC teleconference on Monday.

“He’s definitely gotten better at that,” Bennett said. “There’s been games where he really - if that’s what we’re doing at that time - where he’s bounced guys out. He’s continuing to work in those areas - it’s getting out there, recovering, using his length; he’s long and so agile. Certainly from where he started to where he is now, you’re seeing a big improvement and he’s been helpful in that regard in that specific area among other areas.”

Bonus Double Bonus Thoughts

  • The second possession of every game for UVA seems to be a mid-post isolation for Mamadi Diakite, who faces up, jabs, and shoots.
  • The sequence where Kihei Clark was fouled on a 3-pointer against Clemson, but made just 1 of 3 attempts for a 36-28 lead felt like it could be crucial when Clemson promptly cut the lead to 36-34. Fortunately, Braxton Key came through with some critical shots to prevent a full Tiger comeback.
  • Since having 9 turnovers the first time against FSU, Kihei Clark has posted 33 assists with 17 turnovers over the last 5 games. That’s nearly a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s at 47 assists and 30 turnovers in the last 7 games and 69 assists with 42 turnovers overall in conference play. That’s 6.3 assists vs. 3.8 turnovers on average.
  • The Hoos could help their offense’s efficiency by simply making shots at the rim and free throws at a better rate. They rank 209th nationally per Hoop-Math.com in field percentage on shots at the rim at 59.1% (Syracuse is the national leader at 74.3%) and 197th nationally per TeamRankings.com in free throw percentage at 70.2% (Western Illinois is the national leader at 80.7%).