Following the most successful season in Virginia football history, it’s hard not to be excited about the return of college football. While the Hoos deservedly receive the lion’s share of your attention in the fall, consuming college football is more fun when you have rooting interests across the country.
That’s where I come in. Every week during the college football season, I will preview several games of interest to me from a data-driven and betting perspective. As someone who likes to dabble in sports betting, I am hoping to find games where I see an analytical edge compared to Vegas lines. If you like to gamble on college sports or are otherwise interested in how a seasoned bettor thinks about the process of placing bets, I hope my column can give you extra data to consider. However, if betting on college sports isn’t your thing, it’s totally fine! Hopefully, my articles can supplement your Saturday viewing experience by giving you a couple facts you can use to impress your friends and family.
This is my sixth season writing SabreBetrics for The Sabre, and every year I like to begin my first article with a few important disclaimers:
- In addition to writing this seasonal column, I am a regular contributor to The Sabre covering football and basketball. I am also a cohost of the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast, which is featured on the site weekly during the fall and spring. During football season, our show does a weekly preview of every ACC football game, even the ones that seem boring. You can also follow on X (@PWOPod) for coverage of UVA sports and commentary on the college sports landscape.
- In my weekly column, I provide my honest perspective on how I think Virginia football will do. I’m a UVA alum and hope that every game ends with a Cavaliers victory, regardless of my original prediction. For this reason, I never bet my own money on or against Virginia. Letting emotions drive your betting decisions is a good way to lose money, and I like to enjoy and cover UVA games without worrying about my finances.
- Everything written in this column is my own personal perspective and does not represent The Sabre at large. I write this column purely for entertainment purposes, so the decision to tail any of my choices is entirely on you.
- Related to this last point, I want my column to be fun and not a source of stress. If you struggle with gambling addiction and think my rambling will exacerbate your tendencies, skip these articles and focus on all the other great stuff on The Sabre. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
With these important disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to turn our attention to the upcoming season. My “Season Win Totals” have been very successful over the last five years. Even with a poor 3-7 showing last year, my overall record with these predictions is an impressive 29-18-3 (61%).
As I have noted in previous years, betting on season win totals is often a more profitable endeavor than picking individual games, which are subject to more randomness. Simply because there is a larger sample size, a team’s true talent will shine through and is less influenced by the luck of any single game. Additionally, it gives you an opportunity to root for (or against) teams that may not be a part of your normal college football watching diet.
Without further ado, here are the teams I think will overachieve and underperform their Vegas expectations in 2026. (Note: These lines reflect regular season games only and do not include conference championships or bowl games.)
Four Teams That Will Go Over Their Regular Season Win Total
Clemson over 7.5 wins (-140): You would be forgiven if you wanted no part of Clemson following the program’s worst season since 2010. Dabo Swinney’s squad starts the season outside the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2011, which has led to some uncomfortable questions about whether the two-time National Championship coach can still thrive in the modern college sports landscape.
However, Clemson’s version of a disastrous season is what most programs dream of. The Tigers finished with seven wins during the regular season last fall with one-score losses to LSU, Georgia Tech, and Duke.
There are several reasons to be bullish about Clemson’s offense despite the inexperience of quarterback Chris Vizzina. Chad Morris, the architect of the Tigers’ potent offenses from 2011 to 2014, returns as the offensive coordinator. Both Morris and Vizzina should thrive with a talented group of position players, including one of the best wideout groups in the country led by All-ACC Preseason selection Bryant Wesco Jr. and preseason Biletnikoff Award nominee T.J. Moore.
While the defense may not be stacked with as many NFL-caliber athletes this season, it still figures to be one of the best in the ACC. Linebacker Sammy Brown returns after finishing third in the conference in tackles in 2025 as does defensive end Will Heldt, who led the team in tackles for a loss (15.5) and sacks (7.5). Brown and Heldt are among 14 players in the country who have accumulated at least 10 tackles and 5 sacks each of the last two seasons.
Despite a difficult opening road game at the other Death Valley, Clemson hosts many of its toughest tests at home (Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, South Carolina). Everyone seems ready to bury the Swinney era at Clemson, but no one should be surprised if he has his overlooked team contending for the conference title and an eighth appearance in the College Football Playoff.
UTSA over 7.5 wins (-130): The Roadrunners have seamlessly transitioned from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, winning 23 games over the last three seasons.
Jeff Trayor’s team is poised to make a run at a conference title this year thanks to a high-powered offense. Fifth-year senior quarterback Owen McCown enters his final year of eligibility fresh off his most well-rounded season. The Texas native threw for nearly 3,000 yards and ranked sixth nationally in touchdown passes with 30. Two of McCown’s favorite targets from last year, David Amador II and AJ Wilson, return, as does explosive running back Will Henderson III. UTSA finished 2025 with the 14th ranked scoring offense by averaging 35.4 points per game and should put up similar numbers again this season.
The schedule also sets up nicely for the Roadrunners. Outside of a September out-of-conference game against Texas, UTSA should be favored or within one score of every team on the schedule. Navy, the odds-on favorite to win the AAC, must travel to the Alamodome, where Traylor has a 33-6 record as a head coach. There are several winnable road games on the schedule as well, including trips to Texas State, Rice, FAU, and UAB. If the Roadrunners can get to double-digit wins, they have an outside shot of sneaking into the College Football Playoff as the best Group of Six team.
Fresno State over 6.5 wins (-125): The Pac-12 is back! If you are looking for a team to root for in the rebuilt conference, I recommend the Bulldogs. Boise State has the most talent and is the odds-on favorite to win the league, but I expect Fresno State to finish second.
During his first year at the helm, head coach Matt Entz established a run-first offensive style that racked up 170.5 yards per game on the ground. The two top running backs from 2025 - Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson - return, which should allow the new quarterback (either Jayden Mandal or transfer Khristian Martin) to settle in.
Last year’s defense was also much improved under first-year defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto. The Bulldogs ranked 10th nationally in yards per game allowed and conceded fewer than 19 points per game. According to Phil Steele, it was Fresno State’s best defensive team since 1976. Only two teams in the FBS lost fewer players to the transfer portal, so Benedetto will hope to maintain continuity with his defense this year.
An opening week game at Southern California will be tough, but Fresno State does host Boise State in mid-October. Treat yourself to the return of “Pac-12 After Dark” by tuning in to the ground and pound Bulldogs.
Syracuse over 4.5 wins (-110): Following a disastrous 3-9 campaign that ended with eight straight losses, few people are willing to take a chance on the Orange. It is admittedly a shocking downturn for the stock of head coach Fran Brown, who posted a 10-3 record in his first year in upstate New York and was widely considered to be a candidate for high-profile jobs like Penn State.
However, much of Syracuse’s downfall in 2025 was tied to the Achillies injury of quarterback Steve Angeli. Prior to the injury, Angeli was the leading passer in the country and had orchestrated a statement road victory at Clemson to bring the Orange to 3-1. His replacements struggled mightily to fill his shoes. Despite playing only 3.5 games, Angeli finished the season as the team’s leading passer by 275 yards, and Syracuse averaged only 11.1 points per game following the injury.
With a healthy Angeli and a more competent backup (Amari Odom) in place, I’m betting on a bounce back season for the Orange.
The defense figures to improve as well under first year coordinator Vince Kehres, who routinely produced some of the MAC’s best defenses during his time at Toledo. Syracuse does face a tough slate of ACC games, but most of the toughest challenges are at home (California, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, Notre Dame). The JMA Wireless Dome is a tough place to visit, and the Orange should have opportunities for road victories at Connecticut, North Carolina, and Boston College. Brown’s team likely won’t contend at the top of the conference, but I think they get back to bowl eligibility this season.
Other Leans: Alabama over 8.5 wins (-130), Old Dominion over 7.5 (-120), Air Force over 6.5 wins (0--190), Troy over 6.5 wins (-145)
Four Teams That Will Go Under Their Regular Season Win Total
Iowa under 7.5 wins (+105): Of all my preseason picks, this one gives me the most anxiety. Excluding the shortened COVID season, Kirk Ferentz has won at least eight regular season games every year since 2017. Even with comically bad offenses, Ferentz’s teams find a way to dominate field position with a smothering defense and elite special teams. Still, I think this line is inflated by Vegas because of the Hawkeyes’ reputation more than the actual roster.
Year-over-year success is predicated on returning production, and Iowa has the lowest percentage of snaps returning of any team in the Big 10 (104th nationally according to Bill Connelly). Only 6 of the 17 defensive players who played at least 200 snaps for Iowa in 2025 are still on the roster. These pieces will be difficult to replace in the portal, where 247 Sports ranks the 15 incoming players as the 17th best class in the conference and 77th nationally.
The 2025 offense, which had one of its most productive scoring seasons in recent memory, still only accumulated 312.7 yards (114th in the FBS) and 135.8 passing yards (128th in the FBS) per game. Mark Gronowski’s replacements at quarterback, Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski, have only completed 47 passes combined during their college careers. Even though Iowa is a run-first team, quarterback remains a major question mark.
Even though defensive coordinator Phil Parker is the best in the business, I think the Hawkeyes will struggle to field another top 10 defense. Relying on competent offensive production from a Kirk Ferentz-led team is a fool’s errand. I’ll take my chances fading Iowa and hope that the difficult Big 10 schedule keeps the Black and Old Gold from getting to eight wins.
Arizona State under 6.5 wins (-110): Kenny Dillingham has done a remarkable job in his three years in Tempe. After taking the Sun Devils to the College Football Playoff in 2024, Dillingham managed a respectable 8-4 record last season. Unfortunately, I don’t see the same level of talent on the roster this year.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt left the program to join Lane Kiffin at LSU. In his place is (likely) Cutter Boley, the former Kentucky quarterback who struggled with decision-making last season. In addition to being considerably less mobile than Leavitt, Boley threw 12 interceptions last season and took 26 sacks. Leavitt is not the only critical piece that departed Tempe; six of the top eight skill players in terms of yards gained last season are no longer with the program. With only 51% of his production returning on both sides of the ball, Dillingham will rely heavily on transfers to make it work.
The schedule does Arizona State no favors either. The Sun Devils follow a trip to College Station with a trip to London to face Kansas. ASU also must go on the road to face Texas Tech and BYU, the two Vegas favorites to win the Big 12. Dillingham is still one of the best young coaches in the game, so it’s tough to count him out. I just think getting to seven wins is a bridge too far.
Georgia Tech under 6.5 wins (-145): This is a difficult pick for me because I think Brent Key is one of the best coaches in the conference. As Georgia Tech’s head coach, he has amassed a 7-1 record against ranked ACC teams. No one does more with less than Key, and he still has one of the conference’s best one-two punches at running back in Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley.
However, there are too many moving pieces for me to believe the Yellow Jackets are true contenders in the ACC. Quarterback Haynes King departs after a career in Atlanta that included 36 starts, 7,907 passing yards, and 55 passing touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing over that three-year span with 2,277 yards on the ground and an additional 36 touchdowns. Transfer Alberto Mendoza - the brother of reigning Heisman winner and first overall draft pick Fernando - may prove to be a worthy successor, but he has a very limited track record of success. To date, the younger Mendoza has only 25 collegiate passing attempts to his name.
King is not the only piece the Yellow Jackets must replace. Georgia Tech is near the bottom of the ACC in returning production with only 3 of the 16 players who saw at least 200 snaps last season still on the roster. Key is also breaking in two new playcallers, with offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner leaving for Florida and defensive coordinator Blake Gideon taking a job at Texas. The out-of-conference schedule is brutal, with Colorado and Tennessee in Atlanta and Georgia in Athens as bookends. The ACC slate has several stumbling blocks as well, including road trips to Blacksburg, Pittsburgh, and Clemson.
Any team coached by Key will be a tough out, but this feels like a rebuilding year for the Yellow Jackets.
Cal under 6.5 wins (-130): Few sophomores in the country have more hype than quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He certainly showed flashes during his freshman season in Berkeley, throwing for 3,454 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, JKS also struggled with consistency and efficiency at times, finishing the season ranked 72nd in QBR. Even when he played well, Sagapolutele was frequently let down by his teammates. A porous offensive line contributed to him taking 30 sacks on the year. According to Parker Fleming, JKS also lost the second most EPA in the country due to dropped passes from his receivers.
Even if you think the lefty Hawaiian is poised for a standout sophomore campaign, there are reasons to worry that he may not have the surrounding talent to succeed. First-time head coach Tosh Lupoi brought in 32 players from the portal and 18 freshmen as well. While Lupoi is known as a talented recruiter, it will likely take some time for these moving pieces to coalesce into a productive team. Most of the receivers and running backs Sagapolutele will have to work with were not on the squad last season. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville, age 30, will also be calling plays for the first time in his career after working in the NFL the last three seasons.
California has only produced one seven-win season since 2020. While I am bullish on the Golden Bears’ long-term future, I think it may take a couple seasons for Lupoi to find his footing and establish a winning culture.
Other Leans: Indiana under 10.5 wins (-130), Houston under 8.5 wins (-145), Tennessee under 7.5 wins (-105), UCLA under 6.5 wins (-130).
Next week will be entirely focused on Virginia football, as I give my prediction for the Hoos season win total and preview the Week 0 clash against NC State. See you then.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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