Rivalry week is always important from a fan perspective. Good coaches have had their careers upended by poor performances against rivals. Conversely, teams have been able to salvage “successful seasons” simply by winning the last game of the year.
For Virginia, the matchup against in-state rival Virginia Tech has added meaning because of the stakes. With a victory, the Cavaliers would punch a ticket to the ACC Championship Game, thus keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive. It would also give Tony Elliott his first 10-win season as head coach, and the program’s first season with double-digit wins since 1989. It is not hyperbole to suggest that this is one of the biggest games in UVA football history.
My picks this week explore some of the most interesting rivalry games around the country this weekend. First, we tackle Virginia’s Saturday night clash with the Hokies.
Virginia’s Week 14 Preview
VPISU +9.5 vs. Virginia, Under 53
On paper, it should be a comfortable win for Virginia. The Hokies have nothing to play for, are transitioning to a new regime, and have struggled on the road all season. Virginia Tech is outside the top 100 schools in the FBS in scoring offense, scoring defense, sacks, sacks allowed, defensive third down percentage, turnover margin, and penalty yards. Quarterback Kyron Drones has failed to reach 200 yards passing in seven straight games. Tech also had to play against Miami on Saturday, while UVA enjoyed a restful bye week.
But nightmares aren’t written on paper, and this rivalry series has been tortuous for the Cavalier fan base. VPISU has won 19 of the last 20 contests. For UVA to cover, it would need to win by double-digits, something the Cavaliers have only done twice against the Hokies since 1995. Virginia has everything to lose in this game, while Virginia Tech has no pressure at all.
It's been a disastrous season for the Hokies, but they have been successful running the ball. Tech averages 187.9 yards per game on the ground, thanks to the contributions of several talented backs and Drones’ strength as a downhill runner. Few teams in the country are as skilled at making opposing teams miss tackles. The Hokies rank first in run play missed tackle rate (18.1%) and fifth in yards after initial contact (4.11 yards). Tackling will be of paramount importance for the Cavaliers’ defense, which has been a struggle at times this season. Losing Kam Robinson to a knee injury will make stopping the run even more difficult. Still, Virginia has a top 25 run defense and should stack the box to force Drones (or possibly Pop Watson) to stand in the pocket and complete passes down the field.
UVA’s offense should be able to find room to maneuver against a Hokies’ defense that has been uncharacteristically poor this season. The tackling has been a major issue, with opponents breaking tackles 12.3% of the time on runs (129th in the FBS) and generating 4.28 yards after contact on passing plays (118th). Six straight opponents have scored at least 28 points against Virginia Tech, and if Chandler Morris and the Cavaliers can protect the football, they should be able to find the end zone as well.
As someone who writes a column about analytical approaches to betting, I see Virginia as the better team across the board. As a Virginia fan, I have a gnawing feeling that we’re in store for another gut-wrenching performance. In an ACC season that has featured so many close calls, why would this rivalry game be any different? Ultimately, I think the Hoos get the job done, even if it takes years off our lives. The prospect of having the Cavaliers’ CFP hopes dashed by a 3-8 VT team is almost too much to contemplate. Cavaliers 27, Hokies 23.
Week 14 Best Bets
- Season Record: 33-30-2; Last Week: 2-3
Florida State certainly has more to play for than their Gainesville rivals, who sit at 3-8 on the season and are currently on Lane Kiffin watch. DJ Lagway, a preseason dark horse candidate for the Heisman Trophy, has not lived up to the hype. He has as many interceptions as passing touchdowns (13) and the 73rd ranked QBR among qualified quarterbacks. The pass rush has been nonexistent, pressuring opposing quarterbacks in the pocket on only 27.6% of dropbacks (129th in the FBS). Since losing a close game against Georgia on Nov. 1, the Gators were noncompetitive against Kentucky and Tennessee and lost by double-digits to Mississippi.
Eventually, Norvell’s luck has to turn around at some point ... right?
Clemson vs. South Carolina Under 46.5 (-110): Speaking of teams that have underachieved expectations, neither fan base can be happy with how the season turned out heading into the 122nd Palmetto Bowl. South Carolina will be sitting out the bowl season, while Clemson barely qualified after a win over Furman last week.
The Gamecocks had an opportunity to shock the college football world with a major upset in College Station, only to collapse in the second half at Texas A&M. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers, once considered a possible No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, has faced a barrage from opposing defenses. He’s been sacked 37 times this year and received no supplemental help from the ground game. South Carolina ranks 125th in success rate on rushing plays and dead last in the FBS on rushing yards gained before initial contact.
Clemson has a strong defense and an inconsistent offense as well. The Tigers rank 24th in the FBS in yards allowed and have conceded an average of 21 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has not performed to expectations either and has dealt with nagging injuries for the better part of two months.
Last two matchups here have totaled 23 and 31 points. I see this as a similarly low-scoring game with neither team reaching the 30s.
Georgia -13.5 vs. Georgia Tech (-110): The 119th meeting of “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. That location is closer to Georgia Tech’s campus, but it’s an arena where the Bulldogs are accustomed to playing. Last season’s eight overtime thriller was an anomaly in what has been a one-sided series over the last two decades. Georgia has won seven straight and 20 of the last 23 games against Georgia Tech.
Brent Key’s team had an opportunity to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a victory over Pittsburgh but lost at home by 2 touchdowns. It was a deflating loss, and you wonder what impact losing control of their CFP destiny will have on the Yellow Jackets in this game. While Haynes King has been a steamroller all season, the Georgia Tech defense has been leaking oil for weeks. The Rambling Wreck have given up at least 34 points in each of the last three games and rank 100th in defensive success rate.
Georgia Tech’s ground game will face its stiffest challenge of the year against another formidable Kirby Smart defense. The Bulldogs rank fifth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (87.6) and fourth in rushing yards allowed after initial contact. On the other side of the ball, Gunner Stockton has been one of the nation’s most efficient quarterbacks, ranking third in total QBR. In three of his last five outings, he’s completed more than 80% of his passes and thrown 13 touchdown passes.
Earlier in the season I think this might have been a more competitive game. However, given the trajectory of the two teams, I think Georgia wins this rivalry game definitively.
Texas +3 vs. Texas A&M (-125): Texas A&M is going to be in the CFP regardless of the result of the Lone Star Showdown. Still, the Aggies likely need a victory to secure a place in the SEC Championship Game. To get there, they will need to win in Austin, something that historically has been an issue. Of the previous 119 meetings in this rivalry series, 60 games have been played in the Texas state capitol. The Aggies have won only 13 times on the road.
Texas A&M has unquestionably been the better of the two teams throughout the season, but the air of invincibility was cracked during a South Carolina game that required a 28-point second half comeback. Conversely, Texas’ offense has started to pick up steam after a slow start to the season. In Arch Manning’s last three starts, he has two of his best performances of the year in QBR with 8 passing touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in three of his last four games.
Both teams have exceptional defenses, particularly in rushing opposing quarterbacks. Through 11 games, the Aggies have 39 sacks on the season, while the Longhorns have 37. Steve Sarkisian’s team has been better at bottling up the run, ranking eighth nationally by allowing only 92.7 yards per game on the ground. This figures to be a tight, defensive battle, so I will take the points and the home underdog.
Air Force -2 at Colorado State (-110): Air Force has won seven of the last eight Ram–Falcon Trophy games. As you would expect from a service academy, expect a heavy dose of the ground game to help the Falcons monopolize possession. Air Force leads the nation with 96 consecutive games with at least 100 rushing yards. No other FBS team has half that amount. The Falcons rank fifth in yards gained before contact, while Colorado State ranks 118th in yards allowed before contact occurs.
Meanwhile, things have never looked grimmer in Fort Collins. The Rams have lost their last five games and are looking for redemption with Jim Mora Jr. as their next coach. The CSU offense has struggled all season, averaging just 18.3 points per game. Freshman quarterback Darius Curry has 7 interceptions in his five career appearances. Perhaps Mora will bring optimism to the program next season, but I expect the 2025 season to end with another loss.
Other leans: Tennessee -3 vs. Vanderbilt, Boston College -3 at Syracuse, Alabama -6 at Auburn
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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