Virginia Football Vs. Boston College: 3 Players, Trends, Predictions, Keys, And Picks

The Virginia football team posted a 3-1 record in September before getting a chance to refocus during a bye week. UVA’s start included a win at Wake Forest that currently has the team at 1-0 in the ACC standings.

Boston College is up next when it comes to town this Saturday at noon. Like Virginia, BC has started off well with a 4-1 overall record and a matching 1-0 mark in the conference. The Eagles already have proven they can win on the road in the ACC with a 28-13 victory at Florida State back on Labor Day.

The Hoos, meanwhile, are 1-1 at Scott Stadium with the win coming against Football Championship Subdivision team Richmond. Combined with 2-4 home records in both 2022 and 2023, that means Tony Elliott has a 5-9 record at Scott Stadium so far in his tenure. That sets the stage for October. The Cavaliers have three home games this month starting with this Boston College matchup. It’s fair to say this stretch could be critical to this season and long-term hopes of increasing enthusiasm behind Elliott at the head of the program.

Elliott put that challenge in front of his team the past two weeks, beginning the message moments after the win at Coastal Carolina.

"We need to be a football team that defends our home stadium. That's really been the message and the motivation,” Elliott said. “If you want to be honest, we have not been good in Scott Stadium under this coaching staff and I want that to change and I believe the players want that to change. But BC is not going to give it to us. We gotta go take it, even in our home stadium."

So what’s on tap for Virginia and Boston College? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.

3 Players To Watch

Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos (5’9”, 196), No. 1: After sitting out last week’s game against Western Kentucky due to an injury suffered against Michigan State, Castellanos is expected to play again this week. In four games this season, he has completed 45 of 70 passes for 729 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions and added 112 yards with 1 touchdown rushing. Coach Elliott called him a big play magnet as he can make things happen with a big throw or a big run. Much like UVA QB Anthony Colandrea, Castellanos is a little shorter so the goal for defenses is to try to keep him contained in the pocket and force him to operate from there without rush lanes opening for carries.

Boston College defensive end Donovan Ezeiruakua (6’2”, 247), No. 6: Ezeiruakua enters this contest after a big week against Western Kentucky where he had 3 sacks as part of 14 total tackles. He currently leads the nation with 8 sacks on the season. That’s already his career best for a season and he’s up to 21.5 in his career. He doesn’t play just one side of the line so Virginia tackles (Blake Steen, Jack Witmer, Jimmy Christ, and the returning McKale Boley) all need to be ready to go.

Virginia cornerback Jam Jackson (6’2”, 187), No. 9: A starter in all four games so far, Jackson has made the jump from FCS Robert Morris where he was a Phile Steele Freshman All-American (third team FCS). So far, he has 20 tackles with 3 pass breakups, a chunk of that coming against Maryland (9 tackles, 2 pass breakups) when that offense picked on his side a little bit. BC could try to test him with wideout Lewis Bond or others too. Jackson has allowed 17 catches on 30 targets in his area per Pro Football Focus for a 56.7% catch rate allowed with opponents averaging 14.0 yards per reception. That’s not all on Jackson as the scheme has tilted zone more on his side, but you have to assume that teams are going to look his way given the opponent production thus far and he’ll need to be ready for the challenge.

3 Trends To Know

Not many penalties: Entering this week’s game, Virginia and Boston College have each been hit with just 17 penalties. They’re tied for No. 7 nationally for fewest total flags so far. BC sits at No. 2 with 3.4 penalties per game, while UVA is tied for No. 11 with 4.3. Interestingly, both teams were above their season averages in their last outing as the Eagles had 3 against Western Kentucky and the Hoos had 7 against Coastal Carolina. Was that a one-game hiccup or a sign of issues ahead?

Rushing matchup: Virginia has posted a 66.2 or better PFF rushing grade in three of four games this season. The Hoos posted 200 yards vs. Richmond, 123 against Maryland, and 384 last time out against Coastal Carolina. Boston College, meanwhile, has received a 74.6 or better PFF run defense grade in four of the last five games. The Eagles allowed 21 yards against FSU, 50 against Duquesne, 176 against Missouri, 127 against Michigan State, and 123 against Western Kentucky.

Virginia corner Kempton Shine has started 43 straight games: Shine has started all 4 games at UVA this season as a transfer from Eastern Michigan. At EMU, he started 39 consecutive times as well pushing his total past 40 games. Shine has 10 tackles and 2 pass breakups so far this season.

3 Virginia Predictions

Receiver Chris Tyree goes for 50+ with a touchdown: After a somewhat slow start to the season (12 catches for 48 yards to date), Tyree could have used the bye week as much as anyone to recharge and regroup. It also gave UVA a chance to study where the offense has been the most effective and how to maybe shift him into one of those spots at times. BC has allowed 15 pass plays of 20+ yards (including 5 of 30+) this season to tie for 86th nationally. There’s an opportunity here for Tyree.

Defensive end Kam Butler breaks through: Butler has been one of the top graded players by PFF each week for Virginia. Still, he only has 1 sack on the season and that’s lower than he or fans had hoped would be the case after he put 3.5 in the first four games last season. Boston College enters this game with 12 sacks allowed and that is tied for 103rd nationally. Butler will post at least 1 sack in this game.

Tight end Tyler Neville scores again: Neville tallied 2 touchdowns in the win at Wake Forest and with the Hoos back in ACC play, he could be a red zone target again this week. A transfer from Harvard, he played near Boston College his whole career so is there any extra motivation this week?

3 Keys To The Game

Disciplined and ready to grind: BC's four FBS level games have all been played in the 20's on the scoreboard. The Eagles beat FSU 28-13, Michigan State 23-19, and Western Kentucky 21-20 while their loss to Missouri was 27-21. In other words, this is likely to be a lower possession, lower scoring game. UVA needs to be prepared for that type of game and be ready to execute in critical situations. Defensively, the Hoos need to be locked in with discipline on assignments. Whether that's staying in rushing lanes on the pass rush, hitting the run fits on carries, or simply keeping eyes in the right place to avoid be fooled by misdirection, disciplined defense will be a factor in the outcome.

The red zone matchup: The Eagles have scored 12 touchdowns on 17 red zone possessions this season, a TD percentage of 70.59% that ranks 34th nationally. The Hoos counter with a 47.06% TD rate in the red zone defensively (8 of 17) to tie for 34th nationally. On the flipside, UVA has a 50% TD rate in the red zone to tie for 106th (9 of 18) while BC has allowed 33.33% (5 of 15) to tie for fifth nationally. Best execution in this area of the field likely will have a good chance to win.

No interceptions: Boston College’s defense is tied for No. 6 nationally with 8 interceptions this season. That includes 5 INTs in the last two outings. Virginia played its first turnover-free game of the season (and first in five games overall) at Coastal Carolina. The Hoos would benefit from a similarly clean effort in this contest and passing yards appear available if they take care of the ball.

3 Virginia Picks

Offensive Player Of The Game: Two offensive players were mentioned above, but for Chris Tyree and Tyler Neville to hit those predictions, Anthony Colandrea (6'0", 183) will need to have a strong outing. He's looked a little bit hesitant and jumpy in the pocket the last two games. However, I'm betting on a bye week reset and a game with 3 passing touchdowns.

Defensive Player Of The Game: Linebacker James Jackson (6'3", 236) hasn't been in the spotlight as much as safeties Antonio Clary and Jonas Sanker or fellow linebacker Kam Robinson. Jackson does have 30 tackles and a sack this season. Those tackles are almost halfway to his total of 80 last season and he's matched his only sack from 2023. In a game where run defense will be important, Jackson steps forward with 8+ tackles.

Winner: Basically a toss-up from the odds makers, this is the latest opportunity for Coach Elliott to lead his team to a home win in a potential momentum-building spot. The Hoos have come up short in that scenario every time so far in his tenure. That changes with a 27-21 win this week. (Season to date: 3-1)

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