We are one month into the college football season, but conference play is just beginning for most programs. While certain teams - such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia - have signature wins that suggest they are true contenders, many teams have yet to face meaningful tests.
With such a disparity in the strength of non-conference schedules, the data can be difficult to parse this early in the season. Just because an offense runs up the score against an FCS opponent, doesn’t mean they are likely to replicate that performance against tougher competition. I tried to keep this point in mind in making my official selections this week and am looking forward to seeing which teams can separate from the pack as conference games get into full swing.
Let’s begin the Week 5 preview with a massive ACC road game for Virginia in the battle for the Jefferson-Eppes Trophy.
Virginia’s Week 5 Preview
Virginia -3 at Florida State, Over 51.5: Tony Elliott and the Cavaliers will look to add a third straight win in the series against the Seminoles. Recent history aside, Virginia has not had much luck in Tallahassee, winning only once - in 2011 - out of 10 tries at Doak Campbell Stadium. This matchup is pivotal for both programs. For Elliott’s squad, it provides an opportunity to stay atop the ACC standings. For Mike Norvell, it represents a chance at staving off calls for his job.
One of the primary reasons for fan frustration is the on-the-field results have not matched the level of talent on the roster. Florida State’s offense, in particular, is filled with highly touted athletes. Running back Ousmane Kromah is the ACC’s third leading rusher and, barring injury, will surpass his rushing total from a season ago this Saturday. Senior receiver Duce Robinson finished 2025 with the third most receiving yards in the conference and averaged 19.3 yards per reception. Another receiver, former four-star recruit Jayvan Boggs, enters this game after a career day against Central Arkansas, catching 6 passes for 122 yards. Any of these players can turn a routine play into an explosive one, and the Seminoles rank sixth in the country in yards gained per completion (15.7).
The person throwing the ball to these receivers is quarterback Ashton Daniels, a confounding athlete who has inconsistently showed flashes of brilliance throughout his career. On the one hand, Daniels’ powerful arm has propelled the Seminoles’ offense to 32 points per game. His running ability is also a dangerous weapon, as the fifth-year senior averages 45.3 sack-adjusted rushing yards per game and has rushed for 4 touchdowns. However, Daniels is also capable of long stretches of inefficiency, completing only 59.8% of his passes on the season with 5 interceptions. Through 27 career starts across his time at Florida State, Auburn, and Stanford, Daniels has only won seven games.
The key for the Cavaliers defense will be to limit explosive plays and keep Daniels contained in the pocket. Virginia was very successful in achieving this gameplan against NC State’s CJ Bailey but could not replicate that effort against Michael Hawkins Jr. and West Virginia.
Florida State’s defense is much more suspect. The Seminoles have allowed 429.8 yards per game (126th in the FBS) and 290 yards per game through the air (135th in the FBS). The front seven has also struggled to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, compiling only 7 sacks through four games. Playing against powerhouse offenses like SMU and Alabama definitely color these metrics, but the fact remains that FSU’s defense has been a sieve this season. Beau Pribula and his receiving corps should have a lot of confidence after producing the best passing game of the Elliott era with 437 total passing yards.
Following the game against Delaware, Elliott asserted that to win the ACC, “you gotta go through Tallahassee.” The vibes surrounding the Florida State program may not match this sentiment, but Elliott may be correct about his team’s chances at contention in 2026. This is a huge opportunity for the Hoos to validate their upward trajectory and remain in the hunt for another trip to Charlotte. As much as Seminoles’ fans want Norvell gone, his team nearly upset SMU at home and jumped out to a two-touchdown lead over Alabama on the road before eventually losing it.
This is a dangerous team to play against and a difficult venue, but I have faith that UVA can limit big plays and move the ball effectively. Final prediction: Hoos 31, Seminoles 24.
Week 5 Best Bets
- Last week’s picks: 4-1
- Record to date: 10-9-1
I think the bigger problem is when Delaware has the ball. UD’s offense is predicated on having an effective passing game. When quarterback Nick Minicucci went down with a leg injury against UVA, the aerial attack ground to a halt. His replacement, Braden Streeter, completed just 2 of 16 pass attempts. On the game, the Fightin’ Blue Hens totaled only 71 passing yards, 38 of which came on a garbage time strike in the final minute. Head coach Ryan Carty would not say this week if Minicucci was available, but after watching him stand with crutches on the sidelines of Scott Stadium, I have my doubts.
Regardless of who plays quarterback, Liberty’s secondary should be up to the challenge. The Flames rank 13th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and have forced 4 interceptions on the season. Liberty also benefits from a rest advantage having played last Thursday, while Delaware will be facing a short week for this Friday night game. I like the Flames to open Conference USA play with a confident road victory.
SMU -20.5 vs. Boston College (-110): Anyone who watched these two teams play last week might not be willing to lay this many points. SMU trailed Missouri State 10-0 at the end of the first quarter before eventually winning by only 10 points. Meanwhile, Boston College nearly upset Virginia Tech at home, losing 21-14 on a late touchdown run. Still, I’m going to back the Ponies because the underlying metrics have been incredibly strong.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings has forced the ball a few too many times but has otherwise been sensational, accruing 1,453 passing yards - second in the FBS - while completing 77% of his passes. In addition to throwing 12 touchdown passes, Jennings leads the nation in passing yards per attempt (11.5), demonstrating his big play potential and his receivers’ ability to get yards after the catch. The Mustangs’ run game has also been effective, with Kendrick Raphael currently in fifth in the ACC with 373 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Raphael and Jennings figure to have a big day on the ground against a Boston College defense that ranks 114th in rushing yards allowed per game.
When these ACC teams faced off last year, the Mustangs walked away with a 45-13 victory. I expect to see a similar result on Saturday.
Illinois -10 vs. Purdue (-110): It’s not surprising that Illinois was soundly defeated in Columbus on Saturday. That happens to most teams. However, I was impressed with the Fighting Illini’s ability to move the ball effectively against a talented Buckeyes defense. Behind solid quarterback play from Katin Houser and 113 yards on the ground from running back Aidan Laughery, the Illinois offense gained two fewer first downs than Ohio State and averaged 6.5 yards per play. Despite the team’s 2-2 record, Houser has put together the best start to his storied career. The fifth-year senior ranks fourth in the FBS in QBR and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns.
Purdue’s 1-3 record can be chalked up to a difficult schedule, including last weekend’s one-sided loss to Notre Dame. Still, the Boilermakers’ defense has been porous at best. Only two teams in the FBS have a worse defensive third down percentage than Purdue, and Barry Odom’s squad allows 246.5 passing yards per game (112th nationally). Even more concerning is the tendency to give up explosive plays; only Colorado State has given up more yards per completion than the Boilermakers (15.65 yards). Expect Houser and the Illini to light up the scoreboard in Champaign.
Texas State -4.5 at San Diego State (-110): The Bobcats make their Pac-12 debut this Saturday following a dominant 63-10 win over Incarnate Word. While that win may not impress you, a victory over North Texas and a close loss to UTSA should.
Quarterback Brad Jackson has been the engine of a dynamic Texas State offense, tossing 10 touchdown passes, completing 68.4% of his passes, and ranking 22nd nationally in QBR. Critically, Jackson has also avoided negative plays, taking only 2 sacks despite facing an overwhelming Texas defensive front in Week 1. Avoiding long yardage situations has helped Texas State average 36.2 points per game, achieve the 17th most first downs in the country, and convert on third down at a 60% clip (No. 4 in the FBS).
Meanwhile, San Diego State is having a tough go of it right now. The Aztecs are currently riding a three-game losing streak and were destroyed by 25 points at Toledo last week. To make matters worse, the team’s top two running backs, Javion Kinnard and Lucky Sutton, left the game with injuries. Without their presence, head coach Sean Lewis will need to rely more on quarterback Jayden Denegal to power the offense. Unfortunately, Denegal has only 600 passing yards on the season and ranks 136th in QBR. To make matters even worse, SDSU’s program is dealing with a mumps outbreak that has impacted at least 14 players.
In the face of these conditions, don’t be surprised if the line continues to creep toward Texas State in the leadup to kickoff.
Fresno State +3 at Washington State (-110): Staying out west, Fresno State will also be making its debut in the redesigned Pac-12 on Saturday. The Bulldogs opened the season with a rough loss at USC but have won the three games since, outscoring Sacramento State, San Jose State, and Rice 113-37.
A major key to their success has been generating turnovers and protecting the ball. The 9-to-2 turnover margin is best in the conference and sixth nationally. The Bulldogs’ offensive line has also played well, allowing only 1 sack in the last three games.
Turnovers have been an issue for Washington State quarterback Caden Pinnick, who has more interceptions (4) than passing touchdowns (3) thus far. The Cougars’ offense has been stagnant, ranking 122nd in scoring with only 22.2 points per game. Part of the problem has been Pinnick’s inability to throw the ball down the field to keep opposing defenses honest. Through four games, Pinnick is averaging just 6 yards per pass attempt and has completed only 61.1% of his passes.
Pullman is never an easy place to play so I suspect this game will be tight down the stretch. Still, I like the Bulldogs to pull the upset and will take the three points as insurance.
Other leans: Army -2.5 at Louisiana Tech; USC -9.5 vs. Washington; Navy vs. Air Force Over 46.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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