The margins in betting, as with college football generally, are very slim. Last week, I lost two games by a combined 1.5 points, turning a potential winning week into a bitter disappointment. I am hoping that luck reverts to the mean with my picks this week to get back on track.
Week 3 of the college football season brings us several intriguing conference showdowns and out-of-conference games between geographically close schools. In that vein, let’s preview Virginia’s matchup in the Duke’s Mayo Classic against an old rival.
Virginia’s Week 3 Preview
West Virginia +10.5 vs. Virginia, Under 53.5: It is often said that “familiarity breeds contempt.” Considering that Virginia and West Virginia have not met since the 2002 Continental Tire Bowl, there seems to be a surprising amount of animosity online between the two fan bases. In fact, the Cavaliers have not played against their westerly neighbors during the regular season in 41 years.
However, Tony Elliott should have a pretty good idea of what to expect in this game, both because he played under WVU head coach Rich Rodriguez during his time at Clemson and because the Mountaineers have a similar run-first offensive style anchored by a dynamic quarterback.
Michael Hawkins Jr., a redshirt sophomore transfer from Oklahoma, is the engine of the West Virginia offense. Through two games, Hawkins has completed 76.2% of his passes while averaging 13.7 yards per attempt. However, he has been most dangerous as a rusher in the open field. With 26 carries for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns, Hawkins is an explosive threat every time he touches the ball. The Cavaliers’ defense will need a disciplined effort to keep Hawkins in the pocket, much like it did against CJ Bailey and NC State in Week 0. Expect defensive coordinator John Rudzinski to use a heavy dose of linebacker spying and delayed blitzes to close off potential running lanes.
Hawkins is complemented in the backfield by senior rusher Cam Cook. Cook also has big play potential, as he demonstrated on the first offensive play of the season with a 72-yard run from scrimmage. While Cook is WVU’s most dangerous running back, there are plenty of other capable runners that are likely to see action. During the game against UT Martin, seven different Mountaineers players had at least 1 carry for 10 or more yards.
Collectively, West Virginia has the ninth best rushing attack in the FBS through two games, averaging 298.5 yards per game. Only four teams in the country have more rushing attempts than the Mountaineers, and three of those teams have played an extra game. Slowing down this prolific ground game will be a daunting challenge for the Cavalier defense, especially after losing defensive tackle Jason Hammond to injury. However, Virginia has been up to the task so far this season, holding opponents to only 65.5 rushing yards and 2.38 yards per attempt.
West Virginia’s ability to run effectively has opened up opportunities for chunk passing plays as well. Four different Mountaineers receivers have receptions this season of at least 27 yards. DJ Epps, a transfer from Troy, has been the most impactful in the vertical passing game, averaging 29.6 yards per catch. Because of the gravity that Hawkins demands, Virginia will need another stellar performance from its secondary, which may be given single coverage assignments at times without over-the-top help. Through two games, the Cavalier defense has allowed only 130 yards per game through the air (17th in the FBS) and has 4 interceptions.
Defensively, expect the Mountaineers to use multiple looks at the line of scrimmage to try to bottle up the Virginia ground game and confuse quarterback Beau Pribula. If Pribula can make sound decisions, he should have opportunities to exploit a porous West Virginia secondary. Despite playing inferior competition in Coastal Carolina and UT Martin, WVU has still given up an average of 271.5 yards per game through the air (123rd in the FBS) and 12.63 yards per completion. The possible return of wide receiver Rico Flores Jr. could be a boon to the UVA passing game. Don’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Des Kitchings uses a similar strategy to the Norfolk State game and comes out firing to test the Mountaineers secondary.
Ultimately, I think this game will be won by the team that gives up the fewest explosive plays. Both offenses are certainly capable, but the play of Rudzinski’s defense thus far should give the Cavaliers an edge. The last time Virginia played a game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, it ended in heartbreak. I expect a similarly close game, but the Hoos get a win to go to 3-0.
Final prediction: Hoos 27, Mountaineers 20.
Week 3 Best Bets
- Last week’s picks: 1-4
- Record to date: 3-6-1
Many people wrote the defending Big 12 Champions off after losing highly touted transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby during the offseason to a gambling scandal. But Hammond has played confidently thus far, completing 76.7% of his passes, by far the best mark of his career. He should have openings to throw against a Houston defense that ranks 114th in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game.
Still, defense is what stirs the drink for Joey McGuire’s squad. Despite losing six defensive players to the NFL Draft last season, the Red Raiders have a lot of talent in their front seven. According to Parker Fleming, Texas Tech’s defense ranks first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback and fifth in EPA per rush. This unit also ranks 13th in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (though admittedly, Houston currently ranks first after allowing only 20 yards total through two games).
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has played well this season and should present a challenge for the Red Raiders’ secondary. Still, I trust McGuire who is 22-5 in home games as the head coach in Lubbock. Most sportsbooks have this as -7.5 right now, but after getting burned by “the hook” last week with Army, I’m going to buy a half point here to keep the line at a touchdown.
South Carolina -3.5 vs. Mississippi State (-110): The rest of the SEC will certainly pay attention to Mississippi State after a dominant 38-13 road win at Minnesota last Saturday. This is coach Jeff Lebby’s best team in his three years in Starkville, and quarterback Kamario Taylor has impressed both as a passer and runner early in the season. Still, Lebby has struggled against SEC competition, winning only 1 of his 16 games against conference foes.
LaNorris Sellers has not yet lived up to the meteoric hype that has tantalized NFL scouts, but he is still one of the most electric quarterbacks in college football. His first two games of the 2026 season have shown his versatility and athleticism. Against Kent State last week, Sellers completed 82.6% of his passes for 3 touchdowns. The week prior against Towson, Sellers needed only 7 carries to reach 119 yards on the ground.
Shane Beamer’s defense has also been elite this year. The Gamecocks rank 11th in the FBS in both rushing yards allowed per game and first downs allowed. This unit should be improved with the likely return of edge rusher Dylan Stewart from injury. The future pro has 36 solo tackles, 11 sacks, and 6 forced fumbles to his name during his two years as a starter.
USC (east) has won 8 of the last 9 in this series going back to 2000. It should be an entertaining game, but I think the Gamecocks, buoyed by an always electric Williams-Brice Stadium crowd, ultimately prevail.
UTSA +30 at Texas (-110): Quarterback Arch Manning and the Longhorns are riding high after a dramatic come-from-behind victory on Saturday over top ranked Ohio State. After only producing a field goal through the first three quarters, Texas stormed back with 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter to provide Steve Sarkisian with a signature victory. Now Sarkisian must navigate a dreaded “sandwich game” - a matchup against an inferior opponent in between high-profile contests.
The Longhorns cannot afford to look ahead to next week’s trip to Knoxville because the Roadrunners are a talented team with a potent offense. Jeff Traylor has produced a top 15 offense in three of the last five seasons, including last year’s team that averaged 35.5 points per game. The Roadrunners are currently outpacing that number through two weeks, with 76 total points and an average of 462.5 offensive yards per game. In his third year as starter, quarterback Owen McCown has been accurate, completing a career high 72.5% of his passes, and has yet to throw an interception.
Texas is clearly the better team, but I think UTSA will score some points to keep the score within range. The point total for the game is 58 which I think these two teams will meet as well. Everything’s bigger in Texas, including the hangover from an emotional national television win.
Vanderbilt -3.5 vs. NC State (-110): I do a weekly podcast with an NC State fan who has complained for years about head coach Dave Doeren. As a long-suffering UVA supporter, I have generally rolled my eyes at his complaints given Doeren’s track record. Surely, fans could be happy with a coach who has produced winning seasons in 10 of the last 13 years?
However, after watching the Wolfpack fall flat during the Week 0 game in Charlottesville, I’m starting to understand the criticism. This performance became even less explicable last week, as NC State racked up a program record 734 yards in a 73-0 win over Richmond. Unfortunately for Doeren, a victory over the Spiders is unlikely to satisfy the fan base and change his reputation for losing high-profile games.
According to Joe Giglio, NC State has lost 10 straight road or neutral site games against non-ACC power conference teams during the regular season.
Doeren will get another shot to rewrite this narrative playing against a tough Vanderbilt squad with an exciting freshman quarterback. After experimenting with two quarterbacks early in the season, head coach Clark Lea will let 5-star Jared Curtis start on Saturday following a strong second-half performance against Delaware. Curtis has completed 21 of 31 passes on the year without throwing an interception and has rushed for 2 touchdowns. NC State will need a better gameplan for keeping Curtis in the pocket than they showed against UVA’s Beau Pribula, who rushed for 110 yards in the opener.
I also think the Commadores’ defense is likely to frustrate Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey in the passing game. Through two games, Vanderbilt’s defense has the third best defensive success rate in dropback situations, sacking opposing quarterbacks 11 times for 85 yards of negative yards. This unit also ranks fourth nationally in stopping teams on third downs with a 16% conversion rate. Lay the short number and trust in what Lea has built in Nashville.
Duke -9.5 vs. Stanford (-110): Stanford’s early season bye came at an opportune time. Beset by injuries along the offensive and defensive lines, the Cardinal were no match for Miami in Week 1 and nearly blew a 16-point lead at home to Hawai’i in Week 0. Perhaps the extra rest will allow Stanford to get some reinforcements to its depleted roster, but I will still ride with the known quantity of the defending ACC Champions.
Duke has relied heavily on the ground game to wear down opposing teams. After rushing for 1,132 yards in his freshman season, Nate Sheppard has become the focal point for the Blue Devils’ offense. He leads the FBS in carries (59) and is second in rushing yards (374). The offensive line has remained a strength for Manny Diaz, creating clear running lanes for Sheppard and keeping new quarterback Walker Eget upright on all but one of his drop backs.
Diaz has also produced another solid rush defense, holding opponents to 82.5 yards per game on the ground thus far. If Duke can contain running back Micah Ford, I’m not sure quarterback Davis Warren and his 57.3 completion percentage can score enough points to keep up.
Other leans: VPISU -3 at Maryland; Nevada -3.5 at MTSU; Toledo -6 vs. Temple.
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Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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