In last week’s column, I emphasized the importance of game experience in predicting early season college football games. This turned out to be a good piece of advice in Week 1.
As noted by Nate Longshore, the 25 most experienced FBS rosters by career snaps opened the season 22-3. Unfortunately, one of those losses was from Oklahoma State, a team I picked as part of a 2-2-1 week. I am still keeping experience at the forefront of my mind this week, as we don’t yet have enough data on teams to make confident assertions about their quality.
I am also being cautious not to overrate the importance of homefield advantage. While teams tend to play better at home than on the road, this is priced into Vegas lines and can be overemphasized by football punditry. My general rule of thumb is that talent wins out most of the time, and you shouldn’t be afraid to pick a team just because they are playing in front of a hostile audience. As you will see below, I’m relying on several road teams to get the job done in enemy territory.
Before we explore those picks, though, let’s preview the Cavaliers’ Friday night game within the friendly confines of Scott Stadium.
Virginia Week 2 Preview
Norfolk State +45.5 at Virginia, Under 55.5: What can Virginia do for an encore after one of the most impressive performances of the Tony Elliott era? After already banking a conference victory, the Hoos enter Week 2 with extra preparation and rest for an in-state FCS opponent.
As the Vegas line suggests, there is a great disparity in talent between the two schools. In fact, a Norfolk State victory would match the largest upset in modern college football history, tying Howard’s 43-40 win at UNLV in 2017 as a 45.5-point underdog. While an upset of that magnitude is unlikely to take place Friday night, the Spartans have done enough through two weeks to grab the attention of the Cavalier coaches and players. A 56-0 victory against Winston-Salem in Week 0 matched the Norfolk State win total in all of 2025. The Spartans followed the win with a plucky performance against Old Dominion last week, trailing by only a touchdown midway through the third quarter before the Monarchs eventually pulled away. On the first drive of the game, NSU running back Jalyn Daniels fumbled the ball at the ODU 1-yard line, canceling out a chance to take an early lead.
Head coach Michael Vick seems to have an improved roster from what he inherited a season ago. Edge rusher Quintin Goins, a transfer from West Virginia, is an intriguing young prospect that will command the attention of the UVA offensive line. On offense, Norfolk State has two capable running backs, the aforementioned Daniels and Shamar Vick, who each averaged over 7.6 yards per carry against ODU. UVA’s front seven will also need to account for quarterback Deljay Bailey, who carried the ball 21 times while attempting 20 passes last Saturday.
Still, Virginia has a size and speed advantage at almost every position. The Monarchs frequently broke through the Norfolk State offensive line last Saturday for 5 sacks on Bailey. With linebacker Kam Robinson returning to the lineup this week, the Cavaliers should improve upon the 2 sacks and 4 tackles for loss they generated against NC State.
I am most interested in how the Virginia offense adjusts after a dominant run-heavy effort in the opening game. During his media availability this week, Elliott suggested that the Spartans would employ an “eight-man front” to try and take away the run game. Against the Wolfpack, UVA ran the ball on 57 of 68 offensive plays, including 15 attempts from quarterback Beau Pribula. Ideally, this is a game where Pribula can make plays with his arm and avoid taking unnecessary hits. It should also be an opportunity for UVA’s running backs to improve their efficiency. With Pribula’s rushing contributions removed, the other five Virginia running backs averaged only 3.52 yards per carry in the opening game.
If the Hoos can avoid costly turnovers, this should be a one-sided affair. Still, I do not think that Elliott will try to run up the score, especially with a game looming against West Virginia next week. During his media availability, Elliott suggested that the staff would “be smart” about how it uses Robinson in his return from injury. The same logic should apply for most of Virginia’s most important contributors. The goal should be to jump out to a significant early lead, then allow the reserves to get some important game experience before the schedule becomes significantly more difficult.
Final prediction: Hoos 45, Spartans 7.
Week 2 Best Bets
- Record to date: 2-2-1
The defense held Marshall to only 147 total yards and 2.7 yards per play. Quarterback Rocco Becht needed only 13 completions to throw for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns. A plurality of his targets went to Koby Howard, an electric young wideout who averaged 26.8 yards per reception. Even with a mediocre performance on the ground, Penn State showed it can stifle opposing quarterbacks and generate explosive plays.
I don’t think Temple has the talent on the roster to keep up. Head coach K.C. Keeler opted to split time between two quarterbacks - Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard - in the opener against Rhode Island. Neither signal-caller looked great as a passer, as the two combined for 9 completions on 16 attempts for 142 yards. Running back Keveun Mason accounted for half of the Owls total offense, gaining 158 yards on the ground and 34 as a receiver. Against Penn State’s talented front seven, you can’t rely on being that one-dimensional on offense.
Though it is listed as a road game for Campbell’s squad, I suspect Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia will be filled with Nittany Lions faithful. Penn State has won 33 straight in this series and I expect them to win comfortably again.
Tennessee -12.5 at Georgia Tech (-110): I picked against Georgia Tech last week and I’m doing it again until the slot machine stops spitting out money.
When I wrote about Brent Key’s team in my season win totals article, I worried that the Yellow Jackets needed to replace too many key pieces to be successful this season. One worry I did not have was with the running game. Unfortunately for Key, an ineffective ground attack is what doomed his team in a Week 1 loss to Colorado. Georgia Tech finished with only 51 rushing yards against a Buffaloes front seven not known for physicality. Quarterback Alberto Mendoza played capably, completing 17 of 23 passes for 237 yards, but surprisingly was not much of a threat as a runner. It didn’t help that Mendoza hurt his ankle right before halftime.
If Georgia Tech is going to struggle in the trenches against Coach Prime’s team, I think they are in for a rude awakening against a ranked SEC opponent. Tennessee waxed Furman last week, but the most important takeaway was the star power of true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon. In his first career collegiate appearance, Brandon accounted for 5 touchdowns, completed 76.5% of his passes, and showed touch on deep balls. His top target, wideout Mike Matthews, set a personal best for receiving yards in a game with 132 and scored 2 touchdowns, providing Josh Heupel with the downfield threat his offense needs to be successful. After finishing sixth in the FBS in points per game in 2025, the Volunteers seem poised for another stellar offensive season.
At a press conference this week, Key joked about the lack of physicality his team showed in its home opener. Perhaps this dry humor will serve as a motivator for his team, but I think it embodies a real problem with the Yellow Jackets’ roster this season. Tennessee has a large contingent of fans and alumni in Atlanta, so expect to see a lot of unsightly orange in the stands of Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Wake Forest -3 at Purdue (-110): It turns out that Gio Lopez is a pretty good quarterback when he’s in the right system and surrounded by explosive players. As David Hale noted on X, Lopez opened the first half against Akron with 313 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That more or less matches his passing output in his first three outings against FBS competition while at North Carolina last year. Running back Ty Clark III needed only 7 carries to get to 105 yards; his average of 15 yards per carry ranks second in the FBS through Week 1. Behind Lopez and Clark III, the Demon Deacons’ offense racked up 559 total yards and gained 8.2 yards per play.
Wake Forest now faces a defense that gave up 6.2 yards per play to Indiana State at home. The Boilermakers led 16-6 at the half before finally pulling away from the Sycamores. It was not the start to a season that instills a lot of confidence. This is another matchup where the two teams have a large disparity in starting experience. Among Power 4 schools, Jake Dickert’s squad ranks 13th in career snaps played, while Barry Odom’s roster sits at 45th.
The ACC desperately needs Power 4 out-of-conference victories to help the rankings and perception of the conference with the College Football Playoff Committee. I think the Deacs win by a touchdown in a high-scoring game.
UNLV -3 at North Texas (-125): The Rebels proved they were a capable road team last week, comfortably winning by two scores in a low-scoring battle at Hawai’i. The UNLV defense was disruptive throughout the game, sacking Micah Alejado 5 times, intercepting a pass, and forcing 24 incompletions. On offense, quarterback Jackson Arnold is still finding his footing as a passer but has excelled as a runner. The Oklahoma and Auburn transfer already has 143 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on the season. Arnold is complemented in the backfield by senior back Jai’Den Thomas, who rushed for 143 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.
You can’t really fault North Texas for losing by 36 to the defending national champions in Bloomington. However, there are still too many question marks with Neal Brown’s team to feel comfortable picking the Mean Green this early in the season. Eric Morris ransacked the roster when he left for Stillwater, leaving Brown with zero returning starters. According to Bill Connelly’s model, UNT ranks 132nd in the FBS in returning production. Even the best coach needs time to figure out how to incorporate 70 new players into a roster.
Everyone jumped off the UNLV Group of 6 bandwagon after a close Week 0 loss to Memphis. I still think Dan Mullen’s team has a great chance of winning the Mountain West Conference and will leave Denton with a victory.
Army -3.5 vs. USF (-110): I’ll take one home team just because I like the value. Jeff Monken has been the model of consistency at West Point, producing only one losing season since 2016.
After winning the American Conference in 2024, Monken’s team took a step back last year while breaking in quarterback Cale Hellums into a full-time role. Hellums looks more confident as a senior, leading the Black Knights to a dominant 59-3 victory over Bryant last week while rushing for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. That Army handily beat an FCS team by successfully running the football is not a surprise, but I was impressed by the explosive plays the offense was able to generate. Slotback Zach Mundell tied a school record for fewest carries needed to reach 100 rushing yards, using only 4 attempts to amass 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. As a team, the Black Knights accumulated 569 rushing yards while averaging 10 yards per carry.
While South Florida represents a significant upgrade in competition, I was not impressed with its opening game against FIU. Despite winning 19-9, the Bulls only generated 208 yards of offense and were outgained by 173 yards. The USF defense forced 3 turnovers, leading to several short field situations for the offense. Still, the Bulls could only manage 2 field goals in the first three quarters of the game and finished with a meager 3.7 yards per play.
This will be first-time head coach Brian Hartline’s first ever road game, and he is still trying to figure out his roster that contains 41 new players from the transfer portal. I much prefer the experience of Army’s roster and Monken’s 45-17 record at Michie Stadium.
Other leans: UTSA ML at Texas State; Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan; UCF/Pittsburgh over 57.5
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!