Both the Virginia and Missouri football teams have lined up in some high profile games this season. That included 12 night games between the two.
The Hoos won a double overtime game against then No. 8 Florida State in a Friday night contest and they took part in seven night games overall. The Tigers had matchups against then No. 3 Texas A&M, then No. 8 Alabama, then No. 8 Oklahoma, then No. 10 Vanderbilt, and then No. 24 South Carolina along the way and had five night games on their schedule.
In other words, neither team should be all that bothered by the task at hand this weekend. No. 20 UVA faces No. 25 Missouri in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. With two ranked teams and a competitive season in the rearview mirror, Cavalier coach Tony Elliott framed this postseason showdown as two teams that contended in their conferences going head to head. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz echoed that thought with a similar statement.
The Hoos enter the game at 10-3, while the Tigers own an 8-4 record.
“You cut them on film and immediately we knew that we were going to a really, really good bowl because when you watch the tape, you’re playing a team like Missouri,” Elliott said.
“An opportunity to play against a really, really good Virginia team, led by Coach Elliott, ACC Coach of the Year, and they’re one drive away, and I know he’s probably stewing over that, but one drive away from being in the College Football Playoff,” Drinkwitz said. “So it’s as good of an opponent as you can have. Our guys know that it’s going to take a lot to compete in this game and I think any time you’re a competitor you want to have a quality opponent so our guys are ready and prepared.”
Some starters will miss the game for both teams. That includes UVA defensive back Ja’Son Prevard and likely running back J’Mari Taylor. On the other side, Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula as well as receivers Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson will not participate.
Even with players of that caliber missing, the Hoos and Tigers do have many of their productive players still in action. Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris (16 touchdown passes), receiver Jahmal Edrine (526 receiving yards), and edge rusher Daniel Rickert (6 sacks) are examples of impact players still expected to play for the Hoos. Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy (1,560 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns), receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (715 receiving yards), and defensive end Zion Young (6.5 sacks) are productive players still expected in action for the Tigers. Hardy needs 68 yards rushing to set the single season school record.
With that as the background, check out more trends, keys, and picks ahead of the ACC Championship Game.
3 Trends To Know
1. Virginia’s First Bowl Game Since 2019. The Cavaliers will play in their first bowl game since the 2019 Orange Bowl. They’ve had bowl credentials in seasons since, but did not participate due to complications from the pandemic. The Hoos’ last bowl win came against South Carolina in 2018. Only 11 players on the UVA roster have played in a bowl game with any team.
2. Third Down Defense. Both teams are stingy when it comes to third down. Virginia enters this game ranked No. 3 nationally in third down conversion defense, allowing only 28.18% on the season. That led the ACC. Missouri, meanwhile, is ranked No. 17 nationally by allowing only 33.13% conversions on third down. That was third in the SEC.
3. Missouri Has At Least 1 Sack In All 12 Games. The Missouri defense is disruptive up front and comes into the game with 35 sacks to rank 18th nationally (tie). The Tigers have at least 1 sack in all 12 games. They had 5 sacks each against South Carolina, Auburn, and Mississippi State this season. UVA ranks 23rd nationally (tie) in sacks allowed with 17, making this an interesting head-to-head matchup. This category could play a big role in the eventual outcome.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Rushing Touchdowns. Both Virginia and Missouri have relied on the rushing attack to produce a lot of points this season. The Hoos have 28 rushing touchdowns to rank 32nd (tie) nationally, while the Tigers enter the bowl game with 30 touchdowns to rank 22nd (tie). That makes this a key statistic in this postseason matchup.
In UVA’s case, it is expected to be without running back J’Mari Taylor. He led the team with 1,062 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns this season, but may be opting out of the bowl. That pushes a heavier load over to Harrison Waylee (5 rushing touchdowns), Morris (5 rushing touchdowns), and possibly Noah Vaughn and Xay Davis - the latter two have not scored this season. If the Cavaliers can’t finish off drives in the red zone, that will be a factor.
On Missouri’s side, quarterback Beau Pribula has announced a decision to transfer and will not play. The Tigers already feature the rushing attack, but this increases the pressure on that unit to be productive. They do still expect to have running back Ahmad Hardy in action and he had 16 rushing touchdowns this season. If Missouri can add to that stat, it could be a key in the outcome.
2. Challenge Missouri Quarterback. With Pribula out, Missouri is expected to start Matt Zollers at quarterback. The true freshman saw action in seven games this season, including his first start against eventual playoff team Texas A&M. Still, he’s attempted just 66 passes in his career and UVA can roll out some interesting looks with an experienced defense under John Rudzinski. Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz said it will be a challenge for Zollers and the offense will “see how can he acclimate” to the Virginia defense. If the Hoos can stop the run and put game pressure on Zollers as a result, that likely increases the chances of a win.
3. Who Settles In Quickly? Both teams have had some time off with UVA last playing on Dec. 6 and Missouri finishing the regular season on Nov. 29. Throw in some personnel changes since those games and you get another layer to navigate in addition to potential rust.
Both coaches also said that some freshmen who didn’t play as much in the regular season could get extra snaps since the bowl game doesn’t count against redshirt eligibility, meaning there could be players on the field in a high leverage situation without much experience. Missouri, for example, had a punt return for touchdown in its last game while Virginia’s punt coverage allowed a touchdown in a key loss to Wake Forest. Is that the type of play that could be critical in a potentially tight matchup?
However you look at it, whichever team can get comfortable and become productive quickly will possibly have an edge.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Quarterback Chandler Morris. UVA has been at its best this season when Morris has been solid in the passing game and when he has helped out his offensive line by avoiding pressure. He’ll need to do that again in this one and if he does, that could lead to a productive day.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Linebacker Maddox Marcellus. Virginia has 13 players from Florida on its roster that will be back their home state for this game. One of them is Marcellus, who has a key role at linebacker with Kam Robinson out for the season.
3. Winner: Tigers 27, Hoos 24. Missouri has won two straight bowl games against Iowa and Ohio State, while UVA hasn’t won a bowl since 2018. The program could use a win in the final game to set a better tone for the offseason, something that hasn’t happened often in the last 20 years. Still, it’s hard to pick it that way given Missouri’s strength of schedule and potential to bother the Virginia offense. Season to date: 9-4.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!