Rematches in college football aren’t particularly common. Virginia, for example, last played a team twice in one season more than 100 years ago. That came in 1906 against Richmond when the Hoos topped the Spiders twice.
With conference championships games now in play, though, it’s possible and that’s what the ACC got this year. Virginia finished 7-1 to top the ACC standings by itself, while Duke emerged from a five-way tiebreaker at 6-2 to earn its spot. That created a rematch less than a month after UVA won 34-17 on Nov. 15. The ACC Championship Game kicks off at 8 p.m. in Charlotte and will be televised by ABC.
Virginia coach Tony Elliott said the first meeting can’t carry too much weight as his team prepares for the title showdown.
“You’ve got throw out what you did in the previous game to be honest,” Elliott said. “This game is going to come down to execution and I’m sure we’re going to get Duke’s best effort. Since our game, you see that they’ve gotten back into rhythm offensively, been able to score a bunch of points. Super excited about the opportunity.”
In the two games since the Hoos won in Durham, the Blue Devils defeated North Carolina 32-25 and Wake Forest 49-32. Against the Tar Heels, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 175 yards and a touchdown, while Anderson Castle rushed for 3 touchdowns and Nate Sheppard put up 90 rushing yards. Against the Demon Deacons, Mensah posted 268 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, while Castle and Sheppard each rushed for 2 touchdowns.
That looks more like the offense Duke has produced all season than a list of season lows that it came up with against Virginia. The Cavaliers expect the Blue Devils to evaluate what happened in the first game and to try to get on track in the rematch.
UVA defensive coordinator John Rudzinski said that could include some adjustments whether that’s a play call wrinkle, a formation disguise for plays they like, a gadget play, or a personnel move. By and large, however, there likely will be a lot of bread and butter from everyone when it gets to this time of year. Who can do it better?
“No one’s going to reinvent who they are,” Rudzinski said. “They’re going to look to do it better. They’re going to look to take advantage of what they learned in the first game. And it’ll be a great challenge.”
Cavalier offensive coordinator Des Kitchings said you don’t start completely from scratch with the scouting report in a rematch, especially when the meetings are this close together. After all, a lot of the data, analysis, and choices were made on weeks of information and film. Instead, he said you take that starting point, evaluate how the assumptions went in the first game, look at any tendencies or shifts that changed since, and then rework from the baseline you created the first time around.
Virginia found success on offense in the first meeting, scoring 3 touchdowns in 4 red zone trips on the way to 34 points. Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns with Trell Harris hauling in 8 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns as well.
On the other hand, Morris also had 2 interceptions with 1 returned for a touchdown. The Hoos also had a fumble, but managed to recover it. Despite giving up 0 sacks, they lost 15 yards rushing as well. So there were some plays that could put the outcome on a tight rope if those miscues multiply on the big stage.
Like Rudzinski, Kitchings said there will be some adjustments coming into the game but there are still cornerstones that teams have in place.
“They’re well coached and they have a scheme that they truly believe in and they do it,” Kitchings said. “They have their changes and tweaks, but they have a foundation of what they do. They’re gonna play man coverage, they’re gonna play zero coverage, they’re gonna blitz you. Their guys are going to play hard. They’re really good with their hands on the defensive line, being able to attack blockers and shed blockers. The linebackers run hard to the ball. It’s a really good group that plays synchronized and for us to be able to win the game, we have to play better than we did the first time.”
With that as the prologue, check out more trends, keys, and picks ahead of the ACC Championship Game.
3 Trends To Know
1. Turnovers Forced. The Virginia defense has forced a turnover in 9 of 12 games this season. That includes 2 interceptions last week against Virginia Tech, but also a fumble recovery against Duke in November. The Blue Devils actually won the turnover battle in the game, though, with 2 interceptions and 7 points off turnovers (an INT return for TD). That does not meet the season trend for the Hoos, who rank 19th nationally (tie) in turnover margin at +8 on the season. The Blue Devils are just behind at 25th nationally (tie) at +7.
If you look at the top of the charts in this category, there are lots of playoff contenders with Indiana (1st/+17), Texas Tech (4th tie/+13), Notre Dame (4th tie/+13), and BYU (7th tie/+12) all in the top 10. Alabama and Oregon are tied in the same spot as UVA.
2. Fisher Camac Disruption For UVA. Virginia defensive end Fisher Camac has a sack or tackle for loss in 4 of his last 6 games. This is similar to a late-season surge at UNLV last season before he transferred when he had a sack or TFL stat in the final seven games of the season. Against Duke in the first meeting, he had 2 sacks and an assist on another tackle for loss. With 4.5 sacks this season, he trails only Daniel Rickert (6) and Mitchell Melton (5) on the stat sheet and he’s one of seven Cavaliers with at least 2.
3. Darian Mensah Clean For Duke. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 3,450 yards and 28 touchdowns, the latter being a program single season record. Impressively, Mensah went through the entire ACC regular season schedule without throwing an interception. He has only 4 INTs all year.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Protect Chandler Morris Again. Virginia enters this game with what looks like a matchup advantage against Duke’s pass defense. The Blue Devils rank 131st nationally in pass defense having allowed 273.7 yards per game through the air. UVA, on the other hand, has a solid passing attack that ranks No. 53 nationally with 244.5 yards per game.
The key there is allowing enough time for quarterback Chandler Morris to find open receivers. In the first game at Duke, Virginia did not allow a sack for the fifth time this season. The Blue Devils average 2.08 sacks per game (tied for 61st nationally), but they can be disruptive and opportunistic (11 interceptions). They had an interception return for touchdown late in the first meeting against the Hoos. UVA needs to win the battle between the offensive line and defensive line to take advantage of the possibilities with lower risk.
2. Third Down. While Virginia managed to pull away to a big lead in its win against Duke in the regular season, part of the success for the offense was winning third down. UVA converted 12 of 19 third downs in the game, a ridiculous 63.2% conversion rate, though the Blue Devils do rank 128th nationally with opponents converting 46.2% on the season. Offensive coordinator Des Kitchings said that the Hoos need to be better on first and second down to avoid a total repeat of the stat this time around because no offense wants to face 19 third down attempts. Still, Virginia does need to be successful with the ones it does face in order to get points on the board. Converting those third downs in the first meeting helped UVA generate four red zone chances and it scored 3 touchdowns on those drives.
On the other side of the coin, the Cavaliers have allowed opponents to convert only 27.27% of their third downs. That ranks No. 2 nationally behind only Texas A&M. Duke has an offense that can put up a lot of points so getting off the field when those chances arise is important again. In the first meeting, the Hoos held the Devils to 4 of 15 on third down (and 2 of 4 on fourth down). That’s one way the defense allowed just 10 points and 1 touchdown in the 34-17 win.
3. Defense Deals A Winning Hand. As this season progressed, it became clear that the Virginia defense was improving and then it turned into a fierce force. Over the last five games against the ACC, the Hoos allowed only 15.4 points per game They gave up only 2 offensive touchdowns in the last 12 quarters and held Virginia Tech to just 6 first downs last week.
In the first game, UVA’s defense held Duke to season lows in total offense (255), rushing yards (42), passing yards (213), points scored (17), and first downs (11). The Blue Devils have been tough on offense throughout the season, though. Duke averaged 34.6 points per game (2nd in the ACC) while leading the conference with 289.3 passing yards per game. So it will be a challenge for the Cavaliers to put up that kind of effort again. If they can contain the run again and bother Darian Mensah enough, however, that will be a big piece of a what they hope is a winning formula.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Receiver Jahmal Edrine. Trell Harris and Cam Ross both had big games in the first meeting, while Sage Ennis joined Harris with a touchdown catch. If Duke shades toward any of those options, Edrine will be there to answer the call.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Receiver Mitchell Melton. Melton posted 2 sacks with a forced fumble in the first matchup. He should be able to create some pressure again this weekend.
3. Winner: Hoos 31, Blue Devils 20. On paper, Virginia has a lot of advantages in this game and it has the previous win under its belt too. That’s given UVA fans a lot of confidence in the rematch. Hopefully, however, the team isn’t taken Duke lightly. The Blue Devils have enough offense and an opportunistic enough defense to get to the winner’s circle. All season long, the Wahoos have shown a week-to-week focus on the task at hand. If they can do that this week and execute, they should bring home a trophy. Season to date: 9-3.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!