While every weekend of college football is a gift, some slates are better than others.
This Saturday is one of the weakest of the entire season in terms of high-profile games. Several Top 25 schools, including Virginia, have byes to prepare for critical rivalry matchups. Other contending teams, such as Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, have cupcake games scheduled. There are only two games between ranked opponents: Missouri at Oklahoma, and USC at Oregon.
However, as I have said many times in this column over the years, any game can be fun to watch when money is on the line. With that in mind, I’ve chosen a mix of best bets to preview. Some have relevance in conference and College Football Playoff races, while others are games that would otherwise fly under the radar. Time to make one last push for profitability before the chaotic rivalry week ahead.
Week 13 Best Bets
- Season Record: 31-27-2; Last Week: 3-2
Still, I think Louisville is the better team. The Cardinals are incredibly unlucky to be out of title contention, suffering two losses in overtime and one by a single point to Clemson last week. Take away a Miller Moss turnover here and an unnecessary penalty there and the Cards are not far away from being in the top four of the CFP standings. Even with an injury to running back Isaac Brown, Louisville remains a dangerous team on the ground. Over the last two games, Keyjuan Brown has averaged 9.28 yards per carry. His elusive running has propelled the Cardinals to top 10 rankings in rushing yards after contact and missed tackles created on designed runs. Moss, too, should find room to maneuver. The Mustangs rank 135th of 136 teams in passing yards allowed, conceding nearly 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
On the other side of the ball, Jeff Brohm’s defense has been stout all season. Both Louisville and SMU have 70.9% stop rates on the year, which suggests the possibility of a low-scoring game. However, the Cardinals rank inside the top 25 in defensive success rate on both dropback and rushing situations. Thanks to Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey on the defensive line, Louisville generates pressure on 40.8% of passing downs. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is not known for his rushing ability, carrying the ball 57 times for only 25 yards on the season.
Despite the letdowns, I think Brohm has his team ready to play in Dallas this Saturday. If the Cardinals drop another heartbreaker, we’ll have to check their ankles for snakebites.
Cal -3 at Stanford (-110): It still feels weird to celebrate the 128th edition of “The Big Game” as an ACC rivalry. The “oldest rivalry in the West” features two teams coming off a bye week. California, bowl eligible for the third consecutive season under Justin Wilcox, is ascendant after upsetting Louisville on the road. Meanwhile, Stanford, just 3-7 on the year and losers of three straight, had to spend an extra week considering where it all went wrong against a feckless North Carolina offense.
Cal may be the definition of a “middle of the pack ACC team”, but there have been signs of optimism this season. Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will be one of the hottest names in the transfer portal this offseason if he decides to leave Berkeley. He enters this contest off his best performance as a collegiate athlete, completing 30 of 47 passes for 323 yards and 2 touchdowns. His arm has been increasingly important for the Golden Bears as the offensive line has struggled to create usable lanes for running backs. Despite taking 24 sacks on the season, JKS has confidently stood in the pocket and made throws that suggest he has the potential to play on Sundays.
Pass rush won’t be an issue against a Stanford front that ranks 90th in the FBS in sacks and 103rd in pressure rate. Only SMU and NC State have allowed more passing yards per game this season than the Cardinal, with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their attempts. The Stanford offense may be worse, averaging just 17.5 points per game and quarterback Ben Gulbranson notching more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (9). The offensive line has not been able to protect Gulbranson at all, conceding 38 sacks on the season.
Outside of an inexplicable win against Florida State, Stanford has been one of the worst teams in the conference on both sides of the ball. Cal at least has a dynamic passing game and a track record of competing in most games. I think they win by at least a touchdown.
Tulane -7.5 at Temple (-110): If you thought head coach Jon Sumrall would be complacent with his team’s appearance in the updated CFP Bracket, think again. At his press conference this week, he described his team as “average” and added, “If we’re a top 25 team, there must be a lot of bad football going on.” That’s harsh coach speak, but whatever keeps his team motivated works for me.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been one of the most efficient passers in the American Conference. In his last two games, the BYU transfer has thrown for 573 yards, 5 touchdowns, and only 1 interception. He’s also averaged 11.46 yards per pass attempt and completed 68% of his passes. Most impressively, Retzlaff avoids taking costly sacks (only 7 on the season).
Behind Retzlaff’s big game experience and with so much on the line for the Green Wave, I do not expect there to be a letdown on the road in Philly. Temple lost its last two games and needed overtime to beat American bottom-feeder Tulsa before that. Owls quarterback Evan Simon has an impressive touchdown to interception ratio (22-1), but he has struggled in the last two games, managing only 5.27 yards per pass attempt. Temple has also struggled to stop the ground game this season, allowing 195.4 yards per contest (124th in the FBS).
The Owls are much improved from the team that lost in New Orleans 52-6 last season. Still, Sumrall and Tulane have a real opportunity at making the CFP and should take care of business this Saturday.
Washington State at James Madison Over 42 (-110): JMU is one of the other major contenders fighting for the Group of Five spot in the CFP. While Tulane has two wins over Power 4 teams this season (Northwestern and Duke), James Madison lost its only such matchup in early September to Louisville. The Dukes have won eight straight since that game, running roughshod through the Sun Belt Conference. Thanks to the nation’s eighth best rushing attack, JMU has averaged 48.3 points per game over the last three games. Bob Chesney’s team has been stellar at finishing drives, ranking ninth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage (76%).
James Madison has played great on defense this season, but it faces a step up in competition this week against Washington State. Though the Cougars are not an offensive powerhouse, they have managed to score at least 20 points in six of the last seven games. Jimmy Rogers’ team is battle-tested and used to being underdogs on the road. Close losses to Mississippi and Virginia demonstrate that Wazzu can play up to the competition.
Given how JMU has played in recent weeks, it might hit the over without any help from Washington State. Still, I think Zevi Eckhaus and the Cougars manage to score at least a couple touchdowns and keep this game close.
East Carolina -2.5 at UTSA (-110): This game does give me pause because of Jeff Traylor’s unblemished record in the Alamodome. During his time in San Antonio, Traylor is 24-0 in home conference games. I was hopeful this record would propel UTSA to the top of the American standings, but it was not to be. The Roadrunners managed to upset Tulane three weeks ago, but they have been non-competitive against other teams near the top of the conference standings. A 32-point loss to USF and a 38-point loss to North Texas demonstrated that Traylor simply didn’t have the depth of talent many expected.
East Carolina has a much more impressive resume. The three losses on the season have come at the hands of NC State, BYU, and Tulane, all talented teams. The Pirates have won four in a row, including an impressive win over CFP hopeful Memphis, by an average margin of 18.75 points.
Blake Harrell’s up-tempo offense is difficult to prepare for and wears opposing defenses down over the course of 60 minutes. No team in the FBS averages more plays per game (80) than ECU, and the Pirates average 466.3 yards per game. Despite the extra opportunities for mistakes, quarterback Katin Houser has only 1 interception in his last five games. The Pirates’ defense is also talented, generating 26 sacks on the season and ranking 14th in success rate on rushing plays.
UTSA may be playing for bowl eligibility, but ECU is still in the hunt for a conference championship. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, but the Pirates ultimately prevail and end Traylor’s impressive home winning streak.
Other leans: Tennessee -4 at Florida, Louisiana Tech ML vs. Liberty, Washington -10.5 at UCLA
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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