After rattling off seven straight wins, the Virginia football team faces just its second game this season following a loss. The trip to Duke on Saturday will be more challenging than September's bounce-back game with William & Mary, though. The Cavaliers and Blue Devils enter this contest among the teams tied for the ACC lead.
It appears to be a strength vs. strength matchup on paper. Much of UVA's success lately has followed the defense, which has given up 21 or fewer points in 7 of 10 games this season. The defense also provided points for the team against Louisville (fumble return for touchdown, interception return for touchdown), Washington State (safety), and California (interception return for touchdown). Last week against Wake Forest, the defense allowed only 9 points (the remaining touchdown came against special teams) in a 16-9 loss but it did not force any turnovers to snap a six-game streak.
Duke, meanwhile, brings one of the most productive offenses in the ACC to the table. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in scoring offense for conference games at 38.4 points per game. They have the league's top passing offense with 312.9 yards per game with quarterback Darian Mensah leading the way. Duke has the fourth fewest turnovers in the conference with 11 on the season.
Virginia coach Tony Elliott credited both Mensah and the offensive line for the Devils' success on offense. He said Mensah does a good job managing the RPO concepts Duke uses and delivers the ball quickly to receivers with space. He also said Mensah remains accurate on the run.
"They do a really good job," Elliott said. "Starts with the quarterback, but I think what probably doesn’t get as much attention would be the front. They don’t let many guys get to the quarterback. So he has time, he has clean pockets, he doesn’t feel a ton of pressure, and then he can make every throw."
Part of the secret for UVA's defense and its success has been stopping the run. Virginia ranks 29th nationally by allowing just 113.8 yards rushing per game. Duke will counter with two capable running backs. Nate Sheppard has 657 yards at 6.6 yards per carry, while Anderson Castle has 370 yards at 5.5 yards per carry. So while the Hoos will need to be strong in the air, they'll also need to continue to bottle up the run.
"They got a really, really good, one-two punch, but they do a great job formationally. They do a great job," Elliott said. "They’re very well coached up front and they knock those double teams off the ball, which creates space. And then that back is coming downhill. ... They can create the play action. They can create, they can run all the RPOs, and then they can they can have the naked boot action off of it once you fully commit to it. So they’re going to challenge you to load the box, to stop the run, because of what they can do with their six in the box, including the tight end. And then that’s going to force you to be in some one high structures, where you get some one on one coverages. And the quarterback can put the ball over the top, he can dot the back shoulder, he can hit the slant, the bang eight, the out. I mean, he can make every throw."
With those matchups in mind, check out more trends, keys, and picks ahead of the last regular season road game for this year's Hoos.
3 Trends To Know
1. Kam Robinson Tackles. Virginia linebacker Kam Robinson posted his fourth game this season with double-digit tackles last week. He has seven games with 10+ tackles in his career. Robinson has tallied 8+ tackles in 14 of his 30 career games - that's 47% of the time. The junior LB leads the team with 64 tackles this season despite missing the first three games after suffering a collarbone injury in the preseason.
2. Duke's Offense Closes Strong In First Half. The Blue Devils have scored 38.4 points per game in conference play to lead the ACC. Part of the success has come from finishing strong in the first half. Duke has 8 touchdowns in the final 2:20 of the first half over the last eight games. That includes 6 touchdown passes from quarterback Darian Mensah.
3. Road Wins. The Cavaliers are 3-1 on the road this season. They've won three road wins in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1998-1999. A victory at Duke would give UVA its fourth road win and match a school record for the most in a single regular season (1984, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2007, 2011). The Blue Devils have posted an 18-5 in home games since the start of the 2022 season, which is the ACC's second best home winning percentage for that stretch.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Account For Anthony. Duke defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr. can be a disruptive force for the defense. He leads the Blue Devils with 10.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. He is tied for 20th nationally in sacks per game (0.72) and 14th in tackles for loss per game (1.28). While UVA has done fairly well in pass protection this season, the trend is pointing down with 6 sacks allowed in the two November games to date. The edge rusher position is one that causes trouble for the Cavalier tackles and the 6'6" Anthony will be a challenge. Virginia must make sure to have a plan to slow him down and not let him derail the offense by himself.
2. More Quick Game. The UVA offense has lost its rhythm over the back half of the season. With the run game not as effective since the start of October, the ability get into favorable down-and-distance situations or to use any tempo has been reduced. One way to try to replace that production and to try to create a better rhythm for the offense is to go to the quick passing game. Tight ends on quick hitters, receivers on slants, running backs on swing passes - these are all ways to try to get some forward momentum going. That in turn can open up the run or more intermediate or deep routes.
Duke enters the game ranked 128th nationally in pass defense by allowing 268.6 yards per game. Try to challenge that part of the defense by mixing in more quick game concepts.
3. Who Makes The Game-Changing Play? These two teams have played close games a lot lately. UVA has been in outcomes decided by one score in five of the last six games and even its game at Cal was a one-score game in the final minute. Duke, meanwhile, has seen its last two games decided by a total of 4 points. In the Cavaliers' case, it came up with a lot of the truly decisive plays in its close wins. The defense with a safety. Chandler Morris with key runs in overtime against Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina. A goal line stop by the defense and a winning touchdown by the offense at UNC. On the other hand, the Hoos missed that opportunity last week when it couldn't turn a blocked punt into more than a field goal and couldn't come up with a touchdown to force overtime while giving up a punt return for touchdown. Can the Wahoos make a key play this week to get back in the winner's circle?
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Receiver Trell Harris. Regardless of who plays quarterback, Virginia will need some of its receivers to come up with some big plays in this game. Harris has had some good catches lately but he may need to find a way to turn one into a big play.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Safety Antonio Clary. Clary isn't playing as a full-time safety because the Hoos rotate a lot in the secondary, but as his career winds down, look for Clary to be involved in some key moments.
3. Winner: Hoos 27, Blue Devils 24. Virginia will go for a 9th win again this week, but it will have to come at a place where opponents aren't winning often. Duke has an 18-5 home record since the start of the 2022 season. Plus, the Blue Devils' last three wins against top 25 teams all came at home too. Virginia is ranked, but is an underdog in the sports books. This one will be hard to pull off, but going with the Wahoos to find a way. Season to date: 7-3.
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