With a disappointing home loss against Wake Forest, Virginia took itself out of the driver’s seat in the race for the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship and eliminated the possibility of getting an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff. However, all is not lost. With victories in its two remaining games, UVA can still make it to Charlotte if the rest of the conference cooperates.
Every Virginia fan is eagerly watching the results of conference games this week, so I thought I would focus my betting attention there as well. Let’s preview the Cavaliers crucial road trip to Durham before examining other games of interest around the ACC.
Virginia’s Week 12 Preview
Virginia vs. Duke -4, Under 58.5
When sportsbooks first posted an opening line for this game, Duke was favored by 5.5 to 6.5 points. The line has dipped as several prominent models projected the game as closer to a toss-up and it appears quarterback Chandler Morris will be healthy enough to play. After taking a brutal hit and getting knocked out of the Wake Forest game, Morris attended practice on Wednesday. Barring a setback, you should assume Morris will play. If he can’t go, the line will spike in Duke’s direction, and I do not see a likely path to victory for the Cavaliers.
Unfortunately, the offense has not played particularly well lately even with Morris under center. In the first five games of the season, UVA averaged 539.6 yards from scrimmage and passed for at least 225 yards in every game. During the most recent five-game stretch, the Cavaliers have only eclipsed that passing total once (against California) and have averaged 316 offensive yards. Some of that can be chalked up to playing better competition, but it’s clear that the rhythm of the offense has been disrupted by injuries, play-calling, and poor execution.
Virginia has an opportunity to get back on track this weekend against a middling Duke defense. Manny Diaz’s teams are often known for their stout defensive fronts, but that has not been the case this season. The Blue Devils allow an average of 29.1 points per game (98th in the FBS) and 268.6 yards in the air (128th). One of the biggest problems for Duke this season has been with tackling. Diaz’s team ranks 127th in missed tackle rate and concedes 3.26 yards after contact on rushing plays. Running back J’Mari Taylor should have another effective game, and if the UVA line can protect Morris in the pocket, he should have receivers open in the secondary.
Offensive efficiency for UVA will be critical because Duke can score a lot of points. Led by quarterback Darian Mensah, the Blue Devils have the fourth best passing offense in the country, averaging 312.9 yards per game. Mensah, who ranks fourth nationally with 2,794 passing yards, has 24 passing touchdowns and only 4 interceptions on the season. He’s helped by a deep receiving corps led by vertical threat Cooper Barkate, who has 824 receiving yards and averages 16.5 yards per catch. However, the Duke offense is difficult to defend because it spreads the wealth around the field. Seven different receivers have receiving touchdowns on the season and eight have double-digit receptions.
Virginia’s defense, particularly its secondary, has played well in recent weeks and kept the Hoos in games while the offense has struggled. It’s great to concede only 9 completions and 64 passing yards against Wake Forest, but this Duke team is functioning at a completely different level. The Blue Devils are simply too good on offense to keep in check for four quarters.
Even with Duke’s surprising loss to UConn last week, I still think the Blue Devils are in a better position to win this game at home. With the injuries piling up, the Cavaliers have been leaking oil over the past month and have been fortunate to still be in the ACC race. Given Morris’ questionable status, I can’t recommend taking UVA in this spot. Blue Devils 34, Cavaliers 20
Week 12 Best Bets
- Season Record: 28-25-2; Last Week: 3-2
The run defense has been porous all year, allowing 3.74 rushing yards before contact (132nd in the FBS) and 168.5 yards per game on the ground. Unfortunately for Boston College, Georgia Tech is great at running the football. What the Eagles allowed to SMU last week is right at the Yellow Jackets’ average. Quarterback Haynes King already has 754 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Coming off a bye week, he should be rested and ready to plow through the beleaguered BC front seven.
Georgia Tech was a major beneficiary of Virginia’s loss last week and controls its own destiny with two conference games remaining. After stewing over the loss to NC State for two weeks, I expect this game to be ugly.
North Carolina +7 at Wake Forest (-125): This game features two teams that won games last week despite poor offensive performances. Wake Forest, as everyone reading this is aware, won in Charlottesville despite a meager 203 yards from scrimmage and without scoring an offensive touchdown. Meanwhile, North Carolina led Stanford 10-3 going into the fourth quarter and managed to gain only 50 rushing yards. Both primary quarterbacks, Robby Ashford for Wake and Gio Lopez for UNC, have been mediocre at best this season. Ashford is 112th in QBR while Lopez, coming off his two best games as a Tar Heel, ranks 108th.
Both teams do have solid defenses, so it should be a low-scoring game. Vegas agrees, setting the over/under at 38.5. With a number that low, I’m taking the points. Bill Belichick’s team has looked much improved over the past month compared to where it started the season. The Tar Heels also have done a great job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks, generating 19 sacks over the last three games (including 9 last week against Stanford). I see this as a 20-17 game that could go in either direction, so give me UNC.
Notre Dame -12 at Pittsburgh (-110): This is the 74th meeting between these schools, with Notre Dame playing only Navy, USC, Purdue, and Michigan State more frequently. Marcus Freeman’s team has been on a roll since opening the season 0-2. Winners of seven straight, the Fighting Irish have evolved into one of the nation’s best offenses. No team averages more points per drive than Notre Dame. Running back Jeremyiah Love has 988 rushing yards, fifth most in the FBS. Quarterback CJ Carr in his first year as a starter is 10th in QBR. Both athletes are hugely responsible for driving an offense that ranks sixth in plays of 20 or more yards.
Pittsburgh has also played well in recent weeks, due in large part to the exceptional play of freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. The Panthers are 5-0 since making the permanent change at quarterback with Heintschel already passing for 1,547 yards and 12 touchdowns in his six appearances. However, he has yet to face a defense anywhere near as talented as Notre Dame. Heintschel’s five victories have come against opponents with a combined ACC record of 6-25.
Pat Narduzzi has spent this week downplaying the importance of this game from an ACC perspective. He’s technically correct, but it isn’t the most inspiring message to send to your team with College Gameday coming to town. While Pittsburgh is approaching this game from a “nothing to lose” perspective, Notre Dame should be plenty motivated to notch a victory that solidifies its CFP standing. According to Brad Powers, Notre Dame has not lost as a double-digit road favorite since 1997. I think they get a signature win in the Steel City on Saturday.
Florida State -13.5 vs. Virginia Tech: At first glance, this seems like a lot of points to lay for a team that has only one conference victory. While it is fun to root against Florida State and mock the program’s poor record in light of lawsuits to exit the ACC, it’s also fair to characterize this underperforming season as supremely unlucky. According to David Hale, Power 4 teams that have outgained their opponents by 40 or more yards are 267-34 on the season. The Seminoles, who have outgained every opponent except for Pittsburgh, are 4-4 in those games. The offense has been elite all season, averaging 493.8 yards per game (3rd in the FBS) and 36.7 points per game. The ground game has been particularly effective, racking up 2.81 yards before contact and a success rate of 49.5%.
This has been a major deficiency with the Hokies defense this season. On rushing downs, Virginia Tech ranks 129th in yards allowed before contact and 134th in missed tackle rate. On offense, the only thing the Hokies do particularly well is run the ball. Quarterback Kyron Drones has been wildly inconsistent, completely fewer than 50% of his passes the last two weeks. The Seminoles have a strong run defense, allowing only 3.04 yards per carry and only eight rushing touchdowns on the year. I expect Florida State to stack the box against Drones and force him to make plays through the air.
The last time FSU played at home they demolished Wake Forest by 35 points. I don’t expect the margin to be that large here, but it should be a comfortable victory for the Noles.
Utah -8 at Baylor (-110): I’ll look outside the ACC for my final game of the week. Kyle Whittingham has been the best college football coach that no one talks about for years. What Whittingham has done in Salt Lake City this year may be the best coaching of his entire career.
Utah is near the top of most statistical categories worth caring about on both sides of the ball. The Utes’ offensive line has dominated the line of scrimmage, allowing only seven sacks on the season and creating open lanes for the nation’s third best rushing attack. Quarterback Devon Dampier, owner of the 11th best QBR in college football, has fought through injuries to head an offense that scores 39.6 points per game. The defense has also been excellent, boasting the FBS’ best pressure rate on passing downs (43.9%) and the fifth best overall stop rate (77.3%).
Those gaudy defensive numbers will be put to the test by quarterback Sawyer Robertson and Baylor’s fifth-ranked passing attack. Still, I trust the Utes to get more stops than the Bears. Dave Aranda’s defense is outside the top 100 in success rate for both rushing and passing downs. Only two teams in the country have fewer sacks than the Bears’ pass rush.
With Baylor’s Athletic Director stepping away from his role and Aranda firmly on the hot seat, there are lots of distractions for a team that is only .500 in the Big 12. The Utes should win this one by at least two touchdowns.
Other leans: West Virginia/Arizona State Over 48, Clemson +3.5 at Louisville, Boise State ML vs. San Diego State
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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