Excitement is high. Ticket sales are up. Positive press is everywhere. And whether you look at the ACC standings or the initial College Football Playoff rankings, the Virginia football team is right in the thick of the discussion.
The Hoos, 8-1 on the season and undefeated in the ACC, bring all of that back to Scott Stadium this week, a place where they've won all five games this year.
That's where Wake Forest will be waiting on the visiting sidelines. The Demon Deacons are on the cusp of bowl eligibility at 5-3 and they had won three straight games against Virginia Tech, Oregon State, and SMU before a big stumble last week. Wake went down to Florida State and dropped a 42-7 decision on the road.
Tony Elliott, however, has warned his team not to read into that score. He called Wake a physical football team that plays hard with a defense that challenges your offensive line and an offense with weapons that can score at any time. Florida State led just 14-0 at halftime before pulling away with a big second half. The Demon Deacons produced 3 sacks.
Plus, Elliott said he remembers his days at Clemson where Wake Forest was always a challenge in the ACC's old Atlantic Division.
"It was always, didn’t matter where you played them at, they were going to fight you tooth and nail and be a scrappy bunch. And so I see a lot of that in this football team," Elliott said. "So this football team here in Charlottesville has been warned and been told, you better not buy the lie. Because this is a talented team that’s starting to figure it out, and they play hard. And then defensively, they really, really challenge you up front, because they can just create havoc with all of the movement and the personnel that they have on the D-Line. And then their quarterback can beat you with his arm and his legs, and then they got probably the most dynamic running back in the league. So it’s a really good football team that’s coming in here, and man, they’re fighting for a lot too. And so they want the same thing that we want. So it’s going to be a battle."
While both teams feature many new faces this season, some of the holdovers at Virginia can reiterate Elliott's point. Last season in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest led 17-3 early in the game and remained ahead 30-17 entering the fourth quarter. UVA managed to post 2 touchdowns in the final frame to come back and win 31-30.
That close score is similar to a lot of this season's wins. The Hoos defeated Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina in overtime. They needed a late score to drop Washington State and the victory at California last week remained a one-score game into the final minute. Virginia found a way to win those games and that resilience will need to be on tap in the season's final three games as well.
"I think the thing I’m most proud of is that they just found a way to win football games," Elliott said. "Despite who they’re playing, despite the injury situation, they just found ways to win football games, which tells me that they’re very goal oriented and they focus week to week and they got a humility about themselves to come back to work each week and chase their best game. So that’s what I’m most proud of and I think that’s what you’re going to see more in college football over the next several years, you’re going to see a lot more one possession games."
Check out more trends, keys, and picks ahead of the latest home game at Scott Stadium.
3 Trends To Know
1. Interception Streak. The Virginia defense has played a big role in the current seven-game winning streak and has allowed just 19.0 points per game over the last three games. Part of the success formula for the defense: takeaways. The Hoos have created at least one turnover in six straight games. That includes 2 interceptions in each of the last three games. This is the first time since 2011 that UVA has at least 2 interceptions in three straight games. Against Washington State, Donavon Platt and Ja'Son Prevard made the picks. At UNC, it was it was Mitchell Melton and Antonio Clary. At Cal last week, Corey Costner and Kam Robinson hauled in the picks with Robinson returning his for a touchdown. Virginia now has 10 interceptions, which is tied for 16th nationally and is its most in a season under defensive coordinator John Rudzinski.
2. Night Lights. UVA installed new lights at Scott Stadium ahead of the 2023 season. The LED system is getting plenty of use this season. When Wake comes to town Saturday for the 7 p.m. kickoff, it will mark the fifth night game at home this season. That is the most home night games in a season since permanent lighting was installed in 1983. So far, the Hoos have taken care of business at home with a 5-0 record on the year. Two home games remain.
3. Touchdown Taylor. Running back J'Mari Taylor continues to be a touchdown maker for the Virginia offense. With 11 rushing touchdowns, he leads ACC running backs and is second to only Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King (14) overall in the conference. That's almost as much as UVA produced as a team in each of the past three years (2022/13, 2023/12, 2024/14). Taylor has helped UVA pile up 24 rushing touchdowns so far this season, which is currently tied for 10th nationally. Individually, Taylor has at least 1 rushing TD in 18 of his last 20 games.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Keep Claiborne In Check. While Taylor gets TDs on the board for UVA, Wake Forest running back Demond Claiborne visits the end zone frequently for his team as well. He has 8 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for 5th in the ACC) and 24 rushing touchdowns in his career (28 total touchdowns counting receptions, which is tied for 1st in Wake history). Claiborne has 106 carries for 639 yards in eight games this season; he ranks 4th in the ACC at 79.88 yards per game and 10th at 6.03 yards per carry. Last season, he posted 86 yards and 2 touchdowns against Virginia in a close 31-30 UVA win that required a fourth quarter rally.
UVA's run defense has been solid this season. Last week at California, the Cavaliers allowed just 8 rushing yards, their fewest in a game since 2020. For the season, Virginia has allowed 111.00 rushing yards per game to rank 26th nationally. Claiborne will be the latest back to test the run defense.
2. Finish Drives. Wake Forest has allowed 21.8 points per game this season to rank 41st nationally (tie). One key for the Deacs has been keeping opponents from scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Wake's defense has allowed a red zone touchdown percentage of 56.25%, which ranks 47th nationally (tie). Those numbers have slipped against ACC opponents by allowing 28.2 points per game and 62.50%. Virginia has not capped red zone possessions with touchdowns at a high rate, posting a red zone touchdown percentage of 61.36% to rank 81st nationally. Against ACC opponents, that drops to 59.26%. With UVA playing close games regularly the last six weeks, this is a stat that could be critical in the season's final three games.
3. Chandler Morris On Passing Downs. If Virginia is going to get to the red zone or produce points some other way, a lot of the offensive burden will fall to quarterback Chandler Morris. After a fast start to the season that saw Morris throw 10 passing touchdowns while completing 71.6% of his passes (111-155) in the first five games, he struggled for three straight games completing 59.3% (54-91) of his passes with only 2 touchdowns. He did get back on track a little bit at Cal last week at 66.7% (24-36), but still did not have a touchdown throw (a pass out to Eli Wood was ruled to be lateral and counted as a rushing touchdown).
Wake Forest has allowed just 56.3% completions by opponents this season to rank 21st nationally and has given up just 7 passing touchdowns to rank 13th. All 7 of those passing touchdowns came in the red zone, meaning that breaking off a long yardage scoring play through the air may be difficult. The pass defense has shown a little vulnerability on third down, allowing 60.0% completions to rank 97th and giving up 6 (of the 7 total) touchdowns to tie for 122nd on that down. With Morris taking the majority of the reps, UVA has completed 62.3% of its third down passes to tie for 33rd and passed for 3 TDs on that down to tie for 64th. Overall, UVA has converted 73 third downs into first downs this season, the most in the FBS.
Bottom line: Virginia needs Morris to play well.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Sage Ennis. The Cavalier tight end has 13 catches for 135 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. He could play a key role in breaking down the Demon Deacons' pass defense.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: James Jackson. An experienced linebacker, Jackson has quietly put together a solid season with 41 tackles. It will be a team effort to deal with Claiborne, but Jackson could be a key contributor.
3. Winner: Hoos 34, Deamon Deacons 24. Virginia has seven 9-win seasons in the history of the program (and one 10-win season) so this weekend is the first chance to push this season into rare territory. Obviously, the stakes are higher than just the win total right now between the ACC Championship Game race and beyond. The Hoos take the next step toward a magical season with another home win. Season to date: 7-2.
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