On Tuesday night, we got our first look at the College Football Playoff rankings. As exciting as it was to see Virginia listed in the initial bracket, the rankings provided a bleak outlook for the ACC getting multiple teams in the CFP.
With Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Miami all outside the Top 12, ACC teams will need some help from other conferences to get a second team in the tournament.
For this reason, my picks this week are focused on teams in playoff contention.
There is also more work to be done for the Hoos to get into the conference championship game. Let’s preview a difficult home matchup for the Cavaliers before exploring a few other games UVA fans should keep an eye on this weekend.
Virginia’s Week 11 Preview
Virginia -6.5 vs. Wake Forest, Under 48
On Saturday, Virginia will look for its first win against Wake Forest in Charlottesville since 2007. Under first-year head coach Jake Dickert, the Demon Deacons have demonstrated the full range of outcomes the game of football provides. Wake has won ugly (10-9 vs. Kennesaw State) and in dominant fashion (39-14 over Oregon State). They also nearly pulled off a major upset against Georgia Tech and were dominated by Florida State a week ago. With so much week-to-week variation, Wake Forest is a difficult program to predict.
Aside from a poor performance last week against the Seminoles, the Demon Deacons have been propelled by a stalwart defense all season. Wake Forest ranks 9th nationally in defensive success rate and 7th in dropback situations, according to Parker Fleming. Dickert’s team excels in getting opposing offenses behind schedule by generating havoc in the backfield. Wake averages 7.4 tackles for a loss per game, allowing a talented secondary to thrive in obvious passing situations. Virginia’s offensive line, a major question mark over the last month, will face a stiff test from a unit that allows only 133.9 yards per game on the ground and 3.53 yards per carry.
The offense is an entirely different story. Averaging just over 24 points per game, Wake Forest has struggled all season to build and sustain scoring drives. The Deacs convert only 36.7% on third downs (96th in the FBS) and 67.9% in the red zone (134th). Inconsistent play from quarterback Robby Ashford is part of the story. The senior play-caller has only 3 passing touchdowns on the season and has battled through a thumb injury the last few weeks. Ashford was benched against FSU in favor of sophomore Deshawn Purdie. It would not be surprising to see both quarterbacks play this weekend at Scott Stadium.
Regardless of who is under center, stopping the run should be the primary focus of John Rudzinski’s defense. Demond Claiborne, who has worked through injuries this season as well, is one of the best running backs in the ACC in space. While he gained only 27 yards on 14 carries against the Seminoles, he also had two sizable runs taken away because of offensive penalties. After holding California to only 8 rushing yards, UVA will need another strong performance from its defensive front in this matchup.
If the game is close going into the fourth quarter, Virginia should have an advantage. In addition to UVA having plenty of experience playing nail-biting games, Wake Forest ranks 133rd nationally in points scored in the fourth quarter (2.9).
Given how inconsistent Virginia’s offense has looked over the past month, I envision a defensive battle where field position becomes critically important. Forcing the opposing offense to start on a long field has been a strength for the Hoos this season. The Cavalier defense ranks 12th in the FBS in opponents starting field position. If Chandler Morris and the UVA offense can avoid turnovers, I like Virginia’s chances to win another grind-it-out game.Cavaliers 24, Demon Deacons 16.
Week 11 Best Bets
- Season Record: 25-23-2; Last Week: 2-3 (lost one game by a half-point in overtime and another because of this Brutal.)
Oregon should be able to take care of the rest. Dan Lanning’s squad ranks fifth in scoring offense with 41.2 points per game and has scored at least 20 points in every game this season. Quarterback Dante Moore should be healthy following a bye week and ready to add to his 1,772 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. The Ducks also have the best rushing attack in the country in expected points added (EPA), averaging 237 yards per game on the ground and 6.26 yards per carry.
Keep an eye on the weather for Iowa City. Rain and wind are expected, which could move the total even lower. Oregon has already won twice in miserable conditions this season and Iowa would rather run the ball anyway.
Vanderbilt -6.5 vs. Auburn (-110): The Commadores sit two spots below the Cavaliers in the CFP standings after a close loss in Austin on Saturday. With wins already over Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina, and a road game against Tennessee to close the season, Vanderbilt is still in the mix for an at-large bid. Quarterback Diego Pavia has inserted himself into the Heisman conversation, accounting for 2,564 yards and 24 touchdowns this season while completing 69.2% of his passes. His tough running and ability to manipulate defenses with RPOs has allowed Vanderbilt to be one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 7.17 yards per play.
Picking Auburn here is a bet that firing head coach Hugh Freeze will instantly fix the problems that have plagued the Tigers this season. Despite the reputation as a quarterback guru, Freeze struggled to get consistent production from Jackson Arnold throughout the season. Arnold, a highly touted transfer from Oklahoma, has only 6 passing touchdowns on the season with the nation’s 84th ranked QBR. His replacement last weekend, Ashton Daniels, completed only 13 of 28 passes for 108 yards in a 10-3 loss to Kentucky. Both quarterbacks hold on to the ball too long, but they also have faced an unending barrage in the pocket. Auburn ranks last in the FBS in sacks allowed per game (4.11).
Maybe we will see a bounce-back performance from the Tigers on the road this week, but I would rather invest in the team with the efficient offense and more to play for.
Texas A&M -7 at Missouri (-110): Missouri is a good football team with a strong defense. Unfortunately, the Tigers will be without quarterback Beau Pribula who dislocated an ankle against Vanderbilt two weeks ago. This means that Missouri will have to start freshman Matt Zollers, who started the year as the third-string quarterback, against one of the best defenses in the country.
It didn’t take long for Mike Elko to create an imposing defense in College Station. The Aggies have the fourth most sacks in the FBS and are the nation’s best team at getting off the field on third downs (22.2%). That would be difficult for any quarterback to face, but it will be doubly so for Zollers making his first career start.
Texas A&M is also talented on offense, averaging 37.8 points per game. Quarterback Marcel Reed, currently with the fourth best odds to win the Heisman Trophy, has accounted for 2,321 yards and 23 touchdowns. Surrounded by talented receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, Reed’s offense has generated 137 plays of 10 or more yards on the season.
There’s too much firepower on both sides of the ball for the Aggies in this one. I don’t think Zoller and the Tigers can reasonably keep up.
Memphis -5 vs. Tulane (-110): Memphis is currently the last team in the CFP Rankings as the Group of 5 representative. Ryan Silverfield’s team has been an analytics darling all season, save for one inexplicable loss at UAB. The Tigers are above average in most statistical categories but are especially talented running the ball. Quarterback Brendon Lewis leads the team in carries (109) and touchdowns (8), and enters this contest fresh off his best performance of the season at Rice last week. Lewis’ ability to run and pass effectively is a major reason Memphis has succeeded in finishing drives. On 39 trips to the red zone, the Tigers have scored 38 times with 32 touchdowns.
Lewis should find room to run against a Tulane front seven that has struggled against the run and athletic quarterbacks. The Green Wave rank 88th in rushing yards allowed after initial contact and 119th in EPA on designed quarterback runs. With an opportunity to make a case to the CFP committee last week at the Alamodome, Tulane had 4 turnovers and surrendered 523 yards to UTSA in a 22-point loss.
Though it won’t get as much national attention as it deserves, this is one of the most important games of the day for the CFP. I like Memphis to stay unbeaten at home and keep pace with Navy atop the American standings.
Coastal Carolina -7 vs. Georgia State (-125): Ok, this one doesn’t have CFP implications. Still, Coastal deserves credit for turning around its season after a rough start. The key has been an improved running game. During the recent three-game winning streak, the Chanticleers have averaged 37 points and 245 rushing yards per game. Coastal also averages 2.52 yards before contact on designed runs, a sign of how well the offensive line has coalesced after getting manhandled by Virginia in Week 1.
Georgia State is unlikely to provide much resistance at the line of scrimmage. The Panthers rank 132nd in defensive success rate on running plays and allow an average of 205 rushing yards per game. The defensive line is similarly ineffective in passing situations with only 9 sacks on the year. Georgia State has yet to defeat an FBS opponent this season, and with games against Marshall, Troy, and Old Dominion to come, it’s unlikely to happen.
Other leans: Florida -3 at Kentucky, UNLV -5 at Colorado State, UCF ML vs. Houston
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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