While there have been surprising results throughout the season, we have yet to see what the Shutdown Fullcast refers to as a “Blood Week.” This would be a weekend when chaos reigns and highly ranked teams suffer upsets. Week 10 seems like a prime candidate for mayhem as 10 AP Top 25 teams must travel to play unranked opponents.
Virginia, still undefeated in the ACC, is one of the ranked teams on notice this weekend. Let’s preview the Hoos’ trip to the Golden State before examining three other teams hoping to avoid an upset bid.
Virginia’s Week 10 Preview
Virginia -4 at California, Under 53
It hasn’t been pretty the last few weeks, but Virginia has found a way to win close games. With a 17-16 win in Chapel Hill, the Cavaliers became the ninth FBS school to win three overtime games in a single season. It’s a testament to the resilience of the program and how far Tony Elliott has brought UVA in his fourth season in Charlottesville. However, it’s also fair to wonder whether this current streak of good luck is sustainable.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Virginia this weekend. This is UVA’s first ever meeting with California, and traveling across the country and managing jet lag is difficult for any team. Injuries have ravaged the offensive line, previously a strength for Des Kitchings’ offense. After allowing only 5 sacks through the first seven games, the Cavaliers’ line conceded 6 sacks to North Carolina. The porous blocking up front has clearly impacted the play of quarterback Chandler Morris who is also playing hurt. His QBR of 14.6 against UNC is the third-worst performance as a starting quarterback of his career.
And yet Virginia has persevered, thanks to the improved play from its defense and opportunistic execution with the game on the line. The Hoos will again rely again on John Rudzinski’s unit to come away with a victory in Berkeley on Saturday afternoon.
California is a difficult team to project because it has produced wildly different outcomes this season. It’s a program that won a two-score game against Minnesota and followed it up with a 34-0 loss at San Diego State the next week. Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has at times looked like a future first-round NFL Draft pick. However, he also ranks 106th nationally in QBR and has thrown as many interceptions in the last three games as he has touchdown passes.
While we don’t know what version of Justin Wilcox’s offense we will see on Saturday, there are plenty of red flags on the defensive side of the ball. Virginia Tech ran roughshod through Cal’s defense last week, accumulating 357 yards on the ground despite having one of the worst offensive lines in the ACC. According to Write For California, the Golden Bears missed 22 tackles on 78 plays, the second-worst tackle rate of the Wilcox era (28.2%). The front seven has struggled against the run all season, allowing 3.6 yards after contact against opposing running backs (130th in the FBS). This is an area where Virginia has thrived, generating 3.56 yards after first contact (25th in the FBS).
While pass protection was a huge concern for the Hoos against UNC, it may not be as much of an issue this week. Cal ranks 75th in pressure rate in passing situations and has only 13 sacks on the season. Against the Hokies, Cal was only able to generate 7 pressures the entire game. The Golden Bears have also struggled with quarterbacks escaping the pocket, ranking 118th in scramble expected points added (EPA) according to Parker Fleming.
In short, the conditions are ripe for Virginia’s offense to have success on the ground and give Morris time to make plays. If Kitchings’ unit is stagnant again, it will be a very concerning sign for the remainder of the season.
Given everything we have seen over the last month, I expect this to be another agonizing watch for UVA fans. There’s been a lot of variability in the performances from both programs throughout the season, but ultimately, I think the best version of Virginia is better than the best version of California. Cavaliers 27, Golden Bears 21
Week 10 Best Bets
- Season Record: 23-20-2; Last Week 2-3
For Florida to keep it close, the Gators will have to rely on the arm of DJ Lagway. He has failed to make the leap many expected he would in his second year at the helm in Gainesville. Though he has undeniable athleticism and potential, his decision-making has been suspect in the pocket. He has as many interceptions as he does touchdown passes (9), and averages only 0.3 yards per rushing attempt.
It's been a tumultuous season for Florida, a program that has faced one of the most difficult schedules in the nation. Perhaps firing head coach Billy Napier will provide a spark coming out of the bye week, but I would much rather rely on the stability that Smart has built in Athens.
Nebraska +7 vs. USC (-125): Coming into the season, Matt Rhule had a problem losing close games. Before 2025, Rhule was 3-10 in one-score contests as the head coach of Nebraska. This year, the Cornhuskers have flipped the script, winning three of four close contests. Rhule’s squad has only lost once this season by double digits, and I think the Huskers have the talent to keep it close again this week.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola has improved his efficiency during his sophomore season, completing 72.8% of his passes for 1,909 yards and 17 touchdowns. His biggest stumbling block has been taking sacks after holding the ball too long. Despite facing pressure on only 27.3% of dropbacks (29th in the FBS), Raiola has been sacked 26 times. Even with these negative plays, the Cornhuskers have managed a success rate of 48% on quarterback dropbacks.
If Rhule is smart, he will lean more heavily on running back Emmett Johnson, the Big 10’s leader in all-purpose yards. In USC’s most recent game, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love torched the Trojans’ defense, carrying the ball 24 times for 228 yards. Lincoln Riley always constructs a juggernaut offense, but his teams are often undone by poor tackling and allowing explosive plays. Even though USC has improved its pass defense, the front seven has struggled to contain strong rushing teams. The Trojans’ defense has the 117th best success rate on designed runs and allows a miserable 2.65 yards per rush before contact (128th in the FBS).
If Riley wants to stay out of an already chaotic coaching carousel, he will need to perform better on the road. As USC’s coach, Riley is 0-12 in covering the spread as a favorite when playing games outside the state of California. I expect this to be a high-scoring game that could go either way.
NC State +6 vs. Georgia Tech (-110): Given how thoroughly the Pittsburgh Panthers destroyed the NC State last week, I expected this line to be in the double digits. Georgia Tech is undefeated after all, 8-0 for only the sixth time in its 133-year history playing football. When the line initially moved toward the Pack, I became even more intrigued.
Despite the Yellow Jackets’ impressive record, there are reasons to worry that regression is possible. According to Parker Fleming, Georgia Tech is one of four FBS teams that has managed three wins with a negative success rate (UVA is also one of these teams). This essentially means that the Jackets have won three games where the stats suggest they shouldn’t have. Injuries are starting to pile up for Brent Key’s team as well, particularly on defense. Starting cornerback Zachary Tobe went down in the Syracuse game, further testing the depth of a secondary that has had to manage the absence of Jy Gilmore and Ahmari Harvey.
This should set up NCSU quarterback CJ Bailey for another strong performance. The talented sophomore ranks 16th in the country in passing yards with 2,071. From the friendly confines of Carter-Finley Stadium, Bailey has completed 75.4% of his passes this season. The Wolfpack should also expect a strong performance from running back Hollywood Smothers, the ACC’s leading rusher averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Georgia Tech ranks 105th in allowing rushing yards after first contact, while NC State backs rank fourth in generating extra yards.
Dave Doeren has made a career out of winning big games when his team has been counted out. I think his team has a decent chance of pulling the upset against a vulnerable conference foe.
Washington State -3.5 at Oregon State (-110): My last two picks don’t fit the description of ranked teams going on the road. Still, there is plenty to play for in this battle for the Pac-12 Championship.
The Cougars could easily have two wins against ranked teams this season, losing by a field goal in Oxford and blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead to UVA due to inexplicable and costly mistakes. Impressively, Washington State did not follow those disappointing results with a letdown performance against Toledo last week in a 21-point thrashing. The offense has looked considerably better since Jimmy Rogers made the decision to go with Zevi Eckhaus at quarterback. A skilled runner, Eckhaus has kept Wazzu on schedule. As a result, Washington State is one of only three teams to have a perfect conversion rate in the red zone. I expect that trend to continue against a Beavers team that ranks 119th in red zone defense.
There really hasn’t been any reason for optimism this season in Corvallis. Head coach Trent Bray was fired after the team’s 0-7 start, the worst record to open a season for Oregon State since 1991. The defense has been abysmal at getting stops and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. OSU allows 32.75 points per game (119th in the FBS) and has only 8 sacks on the year.
The fans at Reser Stadium have already witnessed four home losses to FBS programs this season. Washington State should make it five.
Minnesota -3.5 vs. Michigan State (-110): Speaking of teams with no hope, Michigan State has officially lost the confidence of one of its most enthusiastic supporters. Former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is officially on the hot seat in only his second season in East Lansing.
With a struggling offensive line and the inconsistent play of quarterback Aidan Chiles, the Spartans have allowed 23 sacks through eight games. Chiles has started 20 games at Michigan State, but he may lose the starting spot this week to redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic, who has yet to start a collegiate game. Regardless of who is under center, he will have to manage an offensive line that concedes pressure on 36.5% of dropbacks.
The Gophers are middling in most offensive categories, but they should find opportunities to score against a reeling Spartans defense. Michigan State allows 32.5 points per game, ranks 117th in third down defense, and 125th in defensive passing efficiency. P.J. Fleck’s team has lost all three of its road trips but remains undefeated at home this season. I like the Gophers to “row the boat” to another victory in Minneapolis.
Other leans: Duke +4 at Clemson, Memphis -13.5 at Rice, Pittsburgh -14 at Stanford
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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