When the Virginia football team travels to North Carolina this Saturday, it will do so with a ranking beside its name for the first time in 20 years in this series. The last time UVA carried a ranking into this game was 2005.
Virginia is ranked No. 16 in The Associated Press poll, its highest spot since 2007, but the Hoos have not won a game while ranked 16th or better since 2004. That's the latest 'noise' that Cavalier coach Tony Elliott wants his team to ignore. Forget North Carolina's struggles in a 2-4 start. What Elliott sees is the most recent game on tape, a near win against 5-2 California before falling 21-18.
Elliott wants his team to lock in on the "South’s Oldest Rivalry" and the challenge ahead.
"They're improving, and they're playing at home. And I think that their coaching staff and the players got a ton of pride. So the biggest thing for us where we can't, it's so hard to do but you got to block out the noise and you can't listen to what people say. You can't look at records, you can't look at stats, you got to evaluate the film. And the film says, based off of last week what I saw on tape, that this is a football team that's getting better ... . They've improved each week, they've been able to stop the run. So you better trust your eyes. And that's what's hard for, especially for young people, is to really trust their eyes when they got the phone and everybody talking about all this other stuff. And it gets them distracted and you got a football team [on the other side] and they want to win. ... So that's where we gotta hopefully be able to lean on our experience and our time together as a program to see can we get off to a fast start and try not to let them, gain that confidence that I'm seeing build on the film when I watch them versus Cal."
Elliott pulled out one key factor in there. North Carolina's run defense is ranked 36th nationally by allowing just 119.17 yards per game. That's on 3.44 yards per carry, which is ranked 32nd nationally. The Tar Heels have allowed just 7 rushing touchdowns.
UVA's ability to run the football played a big part of this season's fast start on offense. Virginia had scored 46 or more points in 4 of its first 5 games. It had multiple rushing touchdowns in 4 of those 5 games as well, while rushing for 150+ yards in every outing. Since October arrived, however, UVA has rushed for 210 total yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 games. While those were both wins, 30-27 in overtime at Louisville and 22-20 at home against Washington State, those were also the lowest scoring outputs of the season.
Whether its holding effort a little bit longer, getting some players like center Brady Wilson back on the offensive line after an injury absence, or slightly retooling things in the plan, Elliott believes his team can recapture the offensive success from earlier in the season.
"Hopefully getting Brady [Wilson] back is going to kind of calm us down a little bit up front," Elliott said. "But yes, now we're getting everybody's best effort. So it's a little bit different. It's not like you're sneaking up on people. Now everybody knows what this group is capable of. And so then we have to accept the challenge, which I got full confidence in this group that they will. And it's also good sometimes for you to have to kind of go back to the drawing board just a little bit to get refocused and recenter – not saying that they weren't but it's a great opportunity because offensive football is very rhythmic, right? And then it’s also about being explosive. ... I thought the guys were playing hard, but we just, you know, we need to do better, a little bit more to capture those inches, which is a good challenge for us to see how these guys respond."
Check out more trends, keys, and picks for more on the Hoos vs. Tar Heels.
3 Trends To Know
1. Ja'Son Prevard Interceptions. Virginia defensive back Ja'Son Prevard picked off a pass against Washington State that set up a key score as the Hoos rallied to win. Prevard has 3 interceptions this season, all 3 coming during the last 2 games at home. He's the first Hoo with at least 3 INTs in a season since 2021 when Joey Blount and Anthony Johnson had 3 each. Prevard's picks have helped UVA climb to 14th nationally (tie) in turnover margin at +6 on the season.
2. 100-Yard Club. The Cavaliers have six different players that have contributed a 100+ yards in a single game this season. For the running backs, J'Mari Taylor, Harrison Waylee, and Noah Vaughn each crossed that plateau. Taylor posted 150 at NC State, while Waylee and Vaughn tallied 151 and 101, respectively, against William & Mary. In the receiving room, Cam Ross, Trell Harris, and Jahmal Edrine all are in the club. Ross had 7 catches for 124 yards against Coastal Carolina. Harris made 4 catches for 145 yards against Stanford. Edrine went for 102 yards on 5 catches against Wash State. Those six players have combined for 21 touchdowns this season.
3. Daniel Sparks Punts. UVA punter Daniel Sparks now has 16 punts of more than 60 yards, the most in program history. That included a 65-yard punt against Washington State last week to set a new season high. Sparks averaged 53.0 yards per attempt on 6 punts against WSU with 3 downed inside the 20-yard line. For the season, Sparks has 10 kicks for 502 yards at 50.2 yards per punt; he has 6 50+ yard kicks this season with 5 punts downed inside the 20. Sparks does not have enough attempts to qualify, but his average would lead the nation. "Sparky, man, he kicked the heck out of the ball," Elliott said.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Make Carolina Earn Any Points. The Cavaliers have allowed 25 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, which ranks 109th (tie) nationally. That includes 4 games this season where the opponent came up with a big scoring play through the air. NC State scored on a 27-yard pass, while William & Mary (79), Stanford (68), and Washington State (32) each scored from 30+ yards away. The Tar Heels aren't a team that has been explosive on offense yet - they have just 12 total 20+ yard plays so far this season, which ranks last nationally. Their 10 pass plays of 20+ yards ranks 133rd (tie). UVA needs to avoid UNC finding big plays this week. Make the Carolina offense drive the field if its going to score.
2. Get Chandler Morris Comfortable. Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has put up some strong numbers as the starter. He has completed 145 of 211 passes for 1,607 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions to go with 33 carries for 191 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Dealing with lingering issues in his non-throwing shoulder, Morris has not been as sharp the last two games with his lowest completion rates of the season (19-31, 63.0%, 149 yards at Lousiville and 15-25, 60.0%, 179 yards vs. WSU).
North Carolina's pass defense can be vulnerable this season as the Heels enter this game ranked 97th nationally by allowing 240.8 yards per game through the air. They've allowed a 67.3% completion rate, which ranks 122nd, as well. UVA should look for ways to get Morris comfortable early and try to keep the pocket clean for him to try to take advantage of the opportunities.
3. Win Turnover Battle. Virginia has a lot of advantages on paper in this game when it comes to season-long statistics. One thing that can erase pre-game advantages, though, is turnovers. As noted above, UVA has done well with turnover margin so far this season and it needs to keep it clean on offense again this week to lower UNC's upset chances. On the flipside, North Carolina has at least 1 turnover in 4 of its 6 games this season. The offense lost 3 fumbles last week at California, including one at the goal line in the final 4 minutes on a play that would have given the Heels the lead. The Cavaliers have at least 1 takeaway in 5 of 7 games this season, all wins.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Trell Harris. Virginia's receivers have taken turns with big games this season. Look for Trell Harris to be a big factor Saturday.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Devin Neal. The Cavalier safety posted his second double-digit tackle game of the season last week and he's closing in on 200 career tackles. He needs 11 to reach that milestone.
3. Winner: Hoos 34, Tar Heels 24. Virginia already hit bowl eligibility and a noon kickoff could invite a sleepy start or overall sluggish effort if the Hoos are satisified with that. I don't think they are. Season to date: 5-2.
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