This Saturday marks the 130th meeting of the Oldest Rivalry in the South, the annual meeting between Virginia and North Carolina. The series, which started on Oct. 22, 1892, will be tied with Georgia-Auburn as the second most played rivalry in the FBS (only behind Minnesota-Wisconsin).
For Virginia, it’s a critical matchup that goes beyond fan bragging rights and recruiting battles. The Cavaliers need a win to stay undefeated in the ACC title chase and cannot afford a slip up against a team that is winless in the conference.
When betting, there can be a tendency to overvalue the effect the rivalry will have on the game. Often, bettors will assume that the game will be closer than it otherwise would be because the underdog has extra motivation to perform well. While there are certainly examples of this happening in college football, I try to avoid this type of thinking and just stick to the results on the field. College football is chaotic all the time, so I tend to stay true to the numbers and block out the intangibles.
Before we get into the other games this week, including an analysis of a rivalry in the Sunflower State, let’s preview Virginia’s game against its southern neighbors.
Virginia’s Week 9 Preview
Virginia -10.5 at North Carolina, Under 52
The Cavaliers’ magical season continued with a come-from-behind victory over Washington State on Saturday. It was the program’s first win over a Pac-12 school and the first safety to win an FBS game in more than three years.
Despite the excitement surrounding the football team, it’s fair to wonder whether the Virginia offense is regressing to the mean after starting the season so effectively. The Hoos have had mediocre offensive performances in back-to-back games and failed to score 30 points for the first time all season against a middling Cougars defense.
I remain very concerned about the long-term health of the Virginia offensive line. Center Brady Wilson is expected to play, and David Wohlabaugh Jr. should be available to provide needed depth. Still, the line feels like it has been held together by duct tape as the season progresses, and it has impacted the ability to run the football. After generating 211 yards on the ground against Florida State, Virginia managed only 88 rushing yards against Louisville and 122 against Washington State. Even with all its bruises, the offensive line has done a commendable job in keeping Chandler Morris upright. Even though Morris faced pressure on 8 dropback snaps, he was not sacked. It was the fourth time this season that Virginia’s offensive line pitched a shutout in the sacks department.
The erosion of the offensive line may catch up with the Hoos at some point this season, but I don’t think it will be this weekend in Chapel Hill. North Carolina’s defense under coordinator Steve Belichick has struggled to generate any type of sustained pressure. The Tar Heels have only 8 sacks on the year and rank 93rd in the FBS in tackles for a loss. In giving opposing quarterbacks so much time in the pocket, UNC has been a sieve with passing defense. Carolina ranks 97th in the FBS allowing 240.8 yards per game through the air. Morris has not connected with Virginia receivers down the field much in recent games, but this is the perfect opportunity to rectify that situation.
North Carolina’s bigger problem is with its offense, which has been one of the worst in the FBS. UNC scores just 18.7 points per game (122nd in FBS) and generates only 267.7 yards per game (131st in FBS). Quarterback Gio Lopez, who has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, ranks 129th in QBR and leads an aerial attack that ranks 123rd in passing efficiency. The rushing game isn’t much better, averaging just 105.2 yards per game. It’s quite simply one of the worst offenses in college football and certainly the poorest to emerge from Chapel Hill in some time.
UNC comes into this game after playing its best game of the season, losing at California on a late goal line fumble. It wouldn’t be shocking if we see a similarly scrappy performance from the Heels this Saturday. Virginia is certainly accustomed to playing in close games at this point. However, from an analytical perspective, the Cavaliers are clearly the better team and should win this game by 2 touchdowns. I’m hoping the close call against Wazzu snaps the team back into focus with big goals still to play for down the stretch. Cavaliers 30, Tar Heels 17
Week 9 Best Bets
- Season Record: 21-17-2; Last Week: 3-2
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Cal’s freshman sensation, started the year off with a bang but has struggled as coaches get more tape on him. After throwing 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in his first 3 games, JKS has tossed 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games. He now stands at 113th in the FBS at QBR, with four straight performances under 50, a mark that is generally considered average.
Virginia Tech has struggled this season, but the Hokies should have a rest and preparation advantage coming off a bye. The Golden Bears were fortunate to defeat North Carolina at home last week, needing a late goal line fumble to secure a narrow 3-point victory. Now they must travel across three time zones and face an ACC team desperate to keep its postseason hopes alive.
When you look at the records of these teams, it’s surprising Virginia Tech would be favored. Something is fishy here, and I’m going to run to the smell.
SMU -3 at Wake Forest (-110): I’ll admit that I have been surprised by Wake Forest’s play under first year head coach Jake Dickert. After escaping an upset bid from Kennesaw State in Week 1, I wrote off the Demon Deacons and would not have predicted their impressive play in October. After nearly upsetting Georgia Tech, Wake has won games in Blacksburg and Corvalis and enters this contest rested from a bye week.
Running back Demond Claiborne has been great when healthy, averaging 7.8 yards per carry and scoring rushing touchdowns in his last 5 games. Still, I think there is a limit to what Wake Forest can accomplish with quarterback Robby Ashford under center. He ranks 109th in QBR and has twice as many interceptions (4) as passing touchdowns (2) on the year. The Demon Deacons rank 118th in success rate on designed passing plays. That figures to be a problem against an SMU team that is great at pressuring the quarterback, averaging 3.3 sacks and nearly 7 tackles for a loss per game.
After a slow start to the season, Rhett Lashlee’s squad is looking more like the 2024 team that barnstormed its way into the College Football Playoff. The Ponies enter this contest after a strong performance at Clemson where the Tigers were held to 35 rushing yards. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has already thrown for 1,948 passing yards and is tied for 8th in the country with 17 touchdown passes. Wake Forest has a strong secondary, but I like the speed and physicality at SMU’s skill positions more.
The Mustangs have the nation’s longest winning streak of regular season conference games with 20. I think they add to that number in Winston-Salem and keep their ACC Championship Game hopes alive.
Iowa State -3 vs. BYU (-110): Brigham Young was one of my preseason leans for a team that was destined to overachieve its regular season win total. However, I didn’t expect the Cougars to already hit the mark after 7 games. Kalani Sitake has maximized the talent on his roster and received excellent play from his freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
Still, Bachmeier’s youth has been more noticeable in his last 2 games. In Arizona, he completed only 41.4% of his passes and threw 2 interceptions. During the Holy War rivalry game against Utah, he completed 59.1% of his passes and took 2 sacks. Bachmeier cannot afford a third mediocre passing game, as Iowa State is a top 25 team in EPA per rushing attempt on defense.
Given BYU’s elite rushing attack, it’s surprising to me that this line opened in favor of the Cyclones, a team that has dropped 2 games in a row. Still, I’m going to put my faith in Matt Campbell, especially with his team getting an extra week to prepare for this game. Running back Carson Hansen and placekicker Kyle Konrardy are expected to return after missing the Colorado game. I think Iowa State is a better team than how they have been playing, and BYU is lucky to still be undefeated with 3 one-score victories in the last 4 games. The Cougars’ luck runs out in Ames this weekend.
Nebraska -6.5 vs. Northwestern (-125): You would be forgiven for fading the Cornhuskers after a ghastly performance in Minneapolis on Friday night. However, I’m using the humbling loss as a “buy low” opportunity against a Northwestern team that has won 4 straight games.
Despite a poor offensive showing against Minnesota, Nebraska has been solid on both sides of the ball this season. Dylan Raiola has thrown for 1,768 yards and 16 touchdowns on the year. The Huskers average 291.1 passing yards per game (17th in the FBS) and have a 48.4% success rate on quarterback dropbacks (7th in the FBS). The biggest problem has been pass protection and Raiola’s tendency to hang onto the ball too long to make something happen down the field. The Nebraska QB has been sacked a staggering 25 times this season. This should be less of a concern against a Northwestern front seven that ranks 98th in the FBS in sacks per game and has one of the nation’s worst missed tackle rates (14.8%).
On the other side of the ball, I expect Nebraska’s secondary to shut down the Wildcats’ pedestrian offense. The Huskers allow fewer than 20 points per game and are first in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (123). Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone has reached 200 passing yards only twice this season, has thrown 7 interceptions, and averages a meager 6.5 yards per attempt. It will be tough sledding for the Wildcats to move the ball down the field without any semblance of a passing game.
Playing in Lincoln is always challenging, and I expect a bounce-back performance from Matt Rhule’s program.
Kansas -2.5 vs. Kansas State (-110): If you’re a Virginia fan struggling with the fact that your team has been dominated by its primary rival for two decades, have I got the team for you! Kansas has lost 16 straight in the Sunflower Showdown, the longest streak in the series’ history. The Jayhawks have won only 4 games against Kansas State since 1993, but I like their chances this week.
The Wildcats were my preseason pick to win the Big 12, but they have underwhelmed and been plagued with significant injuries. Running back Dylan Edwards, one of the best playmakers in the conference, is likely to miss the game after reaggravating an injury earlier this month. His absence will exacerbate Kansas State’s biggest offensive issue: the inability to run the football. The Wildcats rank 126th in the FBS in offensive success rate on designed runs.
On the other side of the ball, the team’s best pass rusher, defensive end Tobi Osunsanmi, was just ruled out for the season. This should allow Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels to have more time to continue his stellar play. Daniels has 18 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions on the year, and has completed nearly 70% of his throws, the high watermark of his career. Because of his ability to run or throw, Daniels is a difficult quarterback to prepare for. Among Kansas’ rushing attempts, Daniels is the ball carrier approximately a quarter of the time. Kansas State ranks 130th in the FBS in yards allowed before making initial contact.
This should be a fun rivalry game to watch at the same time as UVA-UNC. I think Kansas finally breaks the streak in Lawrence.
Other leans: Missouri-Vanderbilt Over 52, Memphis +4.5 vs. South Florida, New Mexico -3 vs. Utah State
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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