We have a fascinating slate of games this weekend, with a combination of bitter rivalries, critical conference battles, and unusual out-of-conference matchups. I suspect we will see a chaotic weekend with several high-profile upsets. Hopefully, that chaos stays out of Charlottesville.
Like Virginia’s football program, I am hoping to keep my winning ways going. Even with a couple unlucky pushes last week, this column has delivered a winning record three consecutive weeks.
Before I share my favorite selections for Saturday, let’s examine UVA’s first ever meeting against a Pac-12 foe.
Virginia’s Week 8 Preview
Washington State +17 at Virginia, Over 56.5
Coming into this past weekend, I would have felt pretty confident in Virginia’s ability to cover three scores against lowly Washington State. The Hoos would be rested and prepared coming out of a bye week, and the Cougars would be reeling from a blowout loss against Lane Kiffin’s explosive offense.
That’s not how things turned out. Washington State nearly pulled off one of the most shocking upsets of the college football season, losing by only three in Oxford while winning the time of possession. Hopefully, it’s a result that grabbed the attention of the Virginia locker room.
The overall metrics on Jimmy Rogers’ team aren’t particularly impressive, but the trajectory of the season has significantly changed since making a change at quarterback. Zevi Eckhaus, a former Bryant Bulldog playing his fifth season of collegiate football, has dramatically improved the Cougars’ offense. Eckhaus ranks 23rd in the FBS in QBR and has completed 68.9% of his passes with only 2 interceptions. His arm will test the UVA secondary, a unit that has allowed 587 passing yards the last two games.
Washington State has needed more production out of the passing game because its rushing attack has not been particularly effective. The Cougars rank 111th in success rate on rushing plays and average only 86 rushing yards per game (131st in the FBS). Running back Kirby Voorhees just had his more productive game of the season against a talented Rebels front seven, averaging 8.8 yards per carry. However, consistent running production is not a strength for Wazzu and the Cavaliers defensive line should have an advantage in the trenches.
The biggest question mark for UVA entering the bye week was the health of its offensive line. While injuries are still a concern for this unit, the Cavaliers should be in better shape with the return of tackle McKale Boley and the improving health of center Brady Wilson. This should provide a boon to the Virginia’s rushing offense. Despite gaining only 88 rushing yards against Louisville, UVA has averaged 217.5 yards on the ground this season. Facing a Washington State defensive front that concedes over 156 rushing yards per game, Virginia should find openings for explosive runs.
Taking the whole season into consideration, I don’t think Washington State has the defense to keep the explosive Cavaliers’ offense out of the end zone. UVA has scored at least 30 points in every game this season, and I see no reason why that trend wouldn’t continue. Still, I think Washington State hangs around for at least a half based on the arm of Eckhaus. I think the Hoos win but don’t cover the big number. Cavaliers 37, Cougars 23
Week 8 Best Bets
- Season Record: 18-15-2; Last Week: 2-1-2
Brian Kelly’s offense has not looked inspiring this season. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, a preseason Heisman favorite, has struggled at times to connect with receivers down the field, averaging just 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The ground game has looked even worse, with LSU averaging just 115 rushing yards per game (113th in the FBS). Still, the Tigers have managed to win games against Clemson, Florida, and South Carolina because of an elite defense. LSU boasts the fourth best stop rate in the country, forcing turnovers or punts on 80% of opponents’ offensive possessions. Similarly, the defense ranks eighth in the country in net points allowed per drive (0.81).
As talented as the Vanderbilt offense is with Diego Pavia under center, this is the most challenging defense the Commodores will play this season. After racking up video game numbers through the first four games on the schedule, Pavia struggled against Alabama, finishing the game with a 60% completion percentage and averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt. Nashville has become a more difficult place to play under Clark Lea, but you can still expect a lot of purple and gold in the seats of FirstBank Stadium. I’ll take the road dogs here to get a statement victory, keeping the Tigers in the SEC title race.
Oklahoma -5.5 at South Carolina (-110): Staying in the SEC, I’m backing another road team because of its elite defensive unit. Oklahoma is one of two teams in the country that averages single digits in points allowed per game.
The Sooners rank first in total defense, conceding only 211.2 yards per game and 3.75 yards per play. Even in last week’s disappointing rivalry loss to Texas, Brent Venables team bottled up the Longhorns for most of the game, holding Arch Manning’s squad to only 15 first downs. The issue was on offense, where quarterback John Mateer was forced to do too much after returning from hand surgery. Now a full participant in practice, I expect Mateer to bounce back and play more like the Heisman frontrunner who started the season as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks.
Despite the buzz surrounding LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina’s offense has struggled to consistently move the ball. Vanderbilt, Missouri, and LSU all had success against the Gamecocks by stacking the box and keeping Sellers from finding open rushing lanes. As a result, USC ranks 132nd in rushing success rate and 112th in rushing yards per game. Those numbers are not going to cut it against a Venables-coached team with the best defensive success rate versus the run.
This should be a low-scoring game with Oklahoma dominating the line of scrimmage and the time of possession.
Washington +6 at Michigan (-110): For the second week in a row, I’m fading Big Blue. The Wolverines have demonstrated the ability to run the ball effectively this season, but could not keep the sticks moving against Southern Cal. With Michigan bottled up on the ground, Bryce Underwood was forced to throw in more obvious passing downs. He completed only 15 of 24 passes and threw 2 interceptions. Now Michigan must face an even better run defense and a dynamic offense that can score points in droves.
Washington has the nation’s seventh ranked run defense, allowing under 83 yards per game on the ground. Led by quarterback Demond Williams Jr., the Huskies score nearly 40 points per game and rank 11th in offensive success rate. Williams enters this game after setting the school record for total yards, accounting for 538 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns against Rutgers. He ranks fifth in QBR and has only 1 interception on the season.
Jedd Fisch’s squad has demonstrated an ability to win on the road already this season, notching victories in Pullman and College Park. I think Washington keeps it close in the Big House and possibly sneaks out with a close win.
James Madison -1 vs. Old Dominion (-110): This figures to be another close iteration of the “Royal Rivalry,” a contest that James Madison has won the last three years. There are a lot of similarities between these programs this season. Both schools have top 15 rushing attacks. Similarly, ODU and JMU rank 11th and 12th in the FBS, respectively, in rushing plays of 10 or more yards.
However, James Madison has the superior defense. The Dukes have the fourth best success rate on all defensive plays and allow only 74 yards per game on the ground (3rd in the FBS). JMU’s defense has allowed only 10 explosive rushing plays on the entire season, while ODU has given up 32 plays of 10 or more yards.
Bob Chesney has enjoyed a lot of success at Bridgeforth Stadium, winning 8 of 9 home games during his tenure in Harrisonburg. I think the Dukes stay unbeaten in the Sun Belt with another home win on Saturday.
Connecticut ML at Boston College (-110): On The Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast, we do weekly previews of every ACC football game. We also give out a “lock of the week” for the betting angle we feel strongest about. I am putting my 7-0 locks record on the line with Jim Mora and the Huskies.
UConn is coming off a bye and has played better than Boston College throughout the season. Seventh year quarterback Joe Fagnano has proven to be an effective game manager, tossing 11 touchdowns and no interceptions on the season. Even if the Huskies aren’t the most exciting offensive team, they rarely turn it over. Connecticut ranks fifth in the FBS with a +7 turnover margin.
UConn has also shown it can win against FBS competition, something Boston College has yet to do this season. The Eagles are bad on both sides of the ball, allowing 33.2 points per game (126th in the FBS) while gaining only 85 rushing yards per contest (133rd in the FBS). BC has one of the least explosive rushing attacks in the country with an FBS worst 8 rushes of 10 or more yards.
The hot seat gets warmer by the day for Bill O’Brien in Chestnut Hill, and there’s a lot of pressure for Boston College to win this game. However, I think the wrong team is favored in this game based on the numbers.
Other leans: Utah -3 at BYU, Florida State at Stanford Over 53, Air Force -4 vs. Wyoming
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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