While Virginia may be using its bye week to rest nagging injuries and prepare for the second half of the season, I have no such luxury as an amateur bettor.
Like UVA, I have performed well in recent weeks with the eyes of the college football nation upon me. I have spent hours scouring tape and crunching the numbers to find more potential winners to share with The Sabre readers. I hope that this preview gives you something to think about while you patiently wait for the Cavaliers’ return to the field.
Before sharing my best bets for the weekend, let’s take a closer look at UVA’s special season from a gambling perspective.
Virginia’s Mid-Season Touchbase
At the midway point in the season, the Cavaliers are 5-1 with their overall record and against the Vegas spread. The road game against NC State is the only contest the Hoos have failed to cover thus far. Virginia has the same record in hitting overs on the season, an unsurprising fact given how well the offense has played. Tony Elliott’s team ranks in the FBS Top 10 in points per game (43) and 13th in total offense (489.2 yards). Only Baylor has gained more first downs than UVA this season.
If you bet the over on Virginia’s season win total, you also have to be feeling pretty good right now. While many sportsbooks moved to 6.5 wins near the start of the season, many bettors were able to get the Hoos at 5.5 regular season wins throughout the summer. Considering how UVA has played this season and the remainder of the schedule, the over bet is looking like a smart long-term investment.
Kelley Ford’s Model gives Virginia a better than 99% chance of making it to at least 7 wins by the end of the regular season. Virginia projects to be a favorite in at least 5 of its 6 remaining games. Given the current trajectory, the Hoos will be a short underdog for the road trip to Durham in November. However, the models can change given injuries or upsets along the way.
Virginia fans have shouldered more than their share of heartbreak over the last two decades. For once, it’s nice to see that supporting the Hoos has paid off (in more ways than one).
Week 7 Best Bets
- Season Record: 16-14; Last Week: 4-1
Clay Helton’s Eagles don’t do much well on either side of the ball. Georgia Southern allows 37.4 points per game, one of the worst marks in the country. The Eagles’ defense gives up an average of 7.05 yards per play, while the offense only generates 5.43 yards per play. Additionally, Georgia Southern’s opponents have converted on third downs 46.6% of the time (125th in the FBS). The offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback JC French, yielding 7 sacks against JMU in the last game. There are simply too many questions about Helton’s team to back it with such a short number.
USC -2 vs. Michigan (-110): The Lincoln Riley tenure in Los Angeles has not resulted in a return to glory for USC over the last four seasons. He has struggled to beat ranked teams, especially on the road. However, Riley has once again assembled a dynamic offense led by one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the country. The Trojans have scored 30 or more points in 7 straight games, the longest streak in the FBS. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is a major reason for the team’s success, completing 70.5% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception. When Maiava passes the ball, USC averages nearly 11 yards per attempt. He leads the entire country in QBR and has achieved a quarterback rating of at least 145 in every game this season. USC trails only Texas Tech in terms of total offense, averaging 565 yards per game.
While Michigan has a stout run defense, its secondary has been middling. The Wolverines rank 59th in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has lived up to his 5-star high school ranking, but he has been let down by his receiving corps. Michigan receivers have 14 drops on the season, which equates to a drop rate of 10.9% (4th most in the FBS). Underwood has played considerably better in Ann Harbor than on the road, an unsurprising fact given his inexperience. In road games against Oklahoma and Nebraska, Underwood has completed only 21 of 46 passes (45.6%) for 247 yards.
While I am concerned about Michigan’s ability to run the football and USC’s inability to stop it, I’m hopeful that a sellout crowd can propel the Trojan’s to another stellar offensive performance and a victory.
SMU -18.5 vs. Stanford (-110): You may be worried about the size of this line given SMU’s inability to cover against the spread this season. I think the Ponies are due. Quarterback Kevin Jennings enters this contest fresh off his best performance of the season, completing 82.9% of his passes- including 16 straight at one point - against Syracuse with a career high 4 touchdowns. Rhett Lashlee’s team has dominated from the friendly confines of Gerald J. Ford Stadium, winning 16 of its last 18 home games while averaging 47.1 points.
Meanwhile, there isn’t a lot to like about Stanford this season. The Cardinal enter this game after narrowly beating San Jose State at home by a single point. Quarterback Ben Gulbranson ranks 117th in QBR in the FBS and the Stanford offense ranks similarly by scoring only 20.6 points per game. Through 5 games, the Cardinal have only gained 86 total first downs. I simply don’t see a way in which Stanford can keep up on the scoreboard.
The Mustangs have the longest active regular season conference winning streak in the country at 18 games. I think they add to that total with a blowout win this Saturday.
Alabama -3 at Missouri (-110): It’s tough to know how impressed to be with Missouri’s 5-0 start. Eli Drinkwitz’s team has looked great, but its most impressive victory might be a close home win against a depleted South Carolina. Quarterback Beau Pribula has led an efficient offense that has excelled on third downs (best in the FBS with a 61.6% conversion rate). However, the Tigers have not demonstrated the ability to consistently generate explosive plays. Only 6.5% of Missouri’s offensive plays have gained 20 or more yards. Against the Crimson Tide defense, I’m not sure you can expect to efficiently move the ball without any home run capability.
Alabama is the more known commodity and has been tested several times this season against quality opponents. After a poor opening week showing against Florida State, Kalen DeBoer’s team has righted the ship with wins at Georgia and against Vanderbilt. Quarterback Ty Simpson has inserted himself into the Heisman conversation with 13 touchdowns and only 1 interception while completing 70.3% of his passes. With 13.3 yards per completion and 9.4 yards per attempt, Simpson has demonstrated a knack at stretching defenses. It certainly helps when you have Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard to pass to. The return of running back Jam Miller from injury has also been a boon to the offense, both because of his playmaking ability and his competence with pass protection. Miller enters this contest after posting 136 rushing yards and a touchdown against Vanderbilt.
Alabama has won six straight in this series including a 34-0 blowout last year in Tuscaloosa. I expect this to be a competitive game, but ultimately, the experience of the Crimson Tide should win out.
NC State +23.5 at Notre Dame (-110): After an 0-2 start to the season, Marcus Freeman’s team has propelled itself back into the College Football Playoff discussion with impressive wins against Arkansas and Boise State. Quarterback CJ Carr has been great, completing 67.7% of his passes and ranking No. 7 in QBR. Running back Jeremiyah Love is finally playing up to his preseason Heisman buzz, scoring 5 touchdowns and gaining 317 yards in his last 3 games. However, the problem with Notre Dame this season hasn’t been on the offensive side of the ball. The Irish have allowed an average of 375 yards per game this season. Opposing quarterbacks have feasted against the Notre Dame secondary, gaining 6.6 yards per dropback (90th in the FBS) with a 19.8% explosive pass rate.
NC State quarterback CJ Bailey is talented enough to take advantage of this struggling secondary. He has completed nearly 75% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Running back Hollywood Smothers figures to play an important role in this game as well. Though the offensive line has struggled to block for Smothers throughout the season, he still has gained 10 or more yards on 20% of his carries and averages 4.7 yards after contact.
Dave Doeren’s defense has struggled all season, so I’m not suggesting that NC State has a realistic chance of winning the game. However, Doeren’s teams always seem to play better with their backs against the wall. I’m counting on the Wolfpack offense to keep this game within 2 touchdowns.
Other leans: Iowa State -3 at Colorado, Iowa -3 at Wisconsin, LSU -8.5 vs. South Carolina
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
2 Comments