Back-to-back winning weeks for this column has me feeling as jubilant as a Virginia student sitting on The Hill on a Friday night. Just like the Hoos on the gridiron, I’ll try for an encore performance with my picks this week.
The overall Week 6 schedule does not have as high a profile as last Saturday, but there are still plenty of intriguing conference games that could go either way. Before we explore some of the best plays for the weekend, let’s discuss UVA’s challenging road test in the Derby City.
Virginia’s Week 6 Preview
Virginia +7.5 at Louisville, Under 62.5
After Friday’s thrilling win over Florida State, Virginia returned to The Associated Press (AP) Top 25 poll for the first time since 2019. The party on the field in Scott Stadium was reminiscent of the 2005 upset over the No. 4 Seminoles.
Few remember what happened the following week with the ’05 Hoos. The Cavaliers went on the road and lost a mess of a game in Chapel Hill to UNC, 7-5. Can Tony Elliott’s squad avoid a similar fate traveling to Louisville this weekend?
Through its first four games, Jeff Brohm’s team has provided extended periods of listless, mediocre football offset by bursts of offensive brilliance. Last week against Pittsburgh, Louisville was down 17-0 at the end of the first quarter before a turnover-fueled rally resulted in a 7-point victory. The Cardinals also trailed 7-6 at halftime to James Madison before two fourth quarter touchdowns sealed the victory.
Louisville has an average offense overall - ranked 59th in the FBS with 409.2 yards per game - but has also generated 12 plays of 30 or more yards on the season. Stopping big plays must be a major focal point for Virginia’s defense this weekend, and it will be a difficult task given the talent Brohm has at his skill positions.
Coming into the season, Louisville figured to have a dominant running game led by Isaac Brown, Duke Watson, and Keyjuan Brown. While Isaac Brown has still been effective averaging 8.1 yards per carry, the group has dealt with injuries and not lived up to preseason expectations. The Cardinals rank 102nd in the FBS in rushing offense and run the ball only 42% of the time. In addition to the injuries, the primary reason for the move away from the ground game is the poor play from the offensive line. According to Max Chadwick of Pro Football Focus, Louisville’s offensive line ranks 121st with its run blocking grade on the season. For comparison, PFF has graded Virginia’s defense 27th overall and 24th in stopping the run.
The lack of sustained success on the ground has placed a heavier burden on transfer quarterback Miller Moss. He’s been mostly up to the challenge, completing 65.6% of his passes for 1,029 yards. Moss has developed a strong chemistry with wideouts Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy who have 23 and 22 receptions on the year, respectively. While those two have the most targets in the passing game, Louisville has spread the ball around to the full complement of its receiving corps. Eight different players average at least 11 yards per reception on the season. Moss has the arm talent to find open receivers when given time in the pocket. Virginia will need to find a way to generate more pressure from its pass rushers which has been a struggle at times this season.
If slowing Louisville’s home run potential is the biggest challenge for the Hoos on Saturday, a secondary concern is sustaining an effective passing game against one of the best coverage units in the conference. Louisville ranks first in the ACC and 15th nationally in passing yards allowed with 150.8 per game. The Cardinals are also tied for ninth in the country with 6 interceptions on the year.
Quarterback Chandler Morris has been brilliant for the Cavaliers this season, but he did make a few questionable decisions to throw into coverage last Friday, leading to three costly turnovers. As dangerous as UVA’s offense has looked this season, this battle between Morris’ arm and the Louisville secondary will be fascinating to watch.
In this same vein, you have to wonder how long Virginia’s depleted offensive line can hold up. Terry Heffernan has done a remarkable job of cobbling together a unit that has thrived despite injuries at every position. Given the lack of depth last season and the inability to protect the quarterback, it’s incredible that UVA has allowed only 3 sacks in 2025. With center Brady Wilson expected to miss another game due to injury, Heffernan again has his work cut out for him.
In the end, I see this as a coin-flip game where Louisville gets the edge from playing at home. In previous iterations of Virginia football, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the team lay an egg after a major step forward. This team feels different, and I have faith that Tony Elliott will have his athletes focused on the task at hand. The stakes have been raised now that UVA has shown it can compete against a quality opponent. It’s a massive opportunity to validate the results of the Florida State game and send a clear message to the ACC that the Hoos belong in the conference title discussion. I’m optimistic about the remainder of the season, but this is a truly difficult game. Cardinals 31, Cavaliers 30.
Week 6 Best Bets
- Season Record: 12-13; Last Week: 3-2
I expect a similarly low offensive output from Colorado State. Following a 20-3 loss to Washington State in which the Rams did not score in the final three frames, head coach Jay Norvell announced that he was relinquishing play-calling duties. It’s a move that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence with a team that has struggled mightily to move the ball. Colorado State ranks 129th in the FBS in points per game (15.25) and 101st in total offense (344.25 yards). Unlike Lewis, Norvell doesn’t have a defense that can keep games close. CSU averages only 1 sack per game (125th in the FBS), allows 169 rushing yards per game (105th), and thus far allows opponents to score in 100% of their red zone appearances.
This Friday night game won’t have the energy, spectacle, or offensive output of UVA-FSU, but it still might be worth your time from a betting perspective.
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Boston College (-110): Despite liking Pittsburgh here, I acknowledge there might be some stress as this game goes into the fourth quarter. Pat Narduzzi’s team has blown double-digit leads two games in a row, conceding 17 straight points to end the game against rival West Virginia and abandoning a 17-0 first quarter lead versus Louisville. Still, Boston College has the Panthers beat in this category. Bill O’Brien’s squad has blown double digit leads three times this season as well including last week at Cal. It could be a battle of who wants it least.
I still believe more in Pittsburgh than in BC. Quarterback Eli Holstein has experienced a little bit of a sophomore slump after a dynamic freshman campaign. He’s thrown the ball well, increasing his yards per attempt and yards per completion from a season ago. However, turnovers have been a significant problem with 5 interceptions through four games. After getting benched last week, I think Holstein bounces back against an Eagles secondary that has only 2 interceptions on the year and ranks 72nd in the FBS in defensive passing efficiency.
Boston College quarterback Dylan Lonergan also enters this game off his worst performance of the season, completing only 56.8% of his passes against California. O’Brien has had to rely more heavily on the passing attack this season the ground game has been ineffective at times. The Eagles managed only 56 rushing yards against Stanford and 67 yards in a double overtime game against Michigan State. I like Pittsburgh’s defense, anchored by the ACC’s leading tackler in linebacker Rasheem Biles, to keep Boston College under 100 rushing yards again.
The Panthers have won four of the last five games in this series played in Pittsburgh. On the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast, I gave this out as my ACC “Lock of the Week.” Thus far, I’m 5-0 on the season with my conference locks. It’s time to jump on the bandwagon!
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Iowa State (-110): This line opened between 3 and 3.5 at most sportsbooks in favor of the ranked Cyclones. Despite receiving a hefty majority of bets (74% according to DraftKings), the line has moved 5 points toward the Bearcats. Regular readers of this column will recognize this as reverse line movement, a signal that professional bettors are heavily invested on the opposite team from the public. I’m in alignment with the sharps after looking at both rosters.
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been one of the best in the country this season. He’s one of PFF’s top rated quarterbacks and he has the sixth-highest QBR among FBS starters. In addition to throwing 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception, Sorsby is the Bearcats’ leading rusher with 35 carries for 227 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s the primary reason Cincinnati has averaged 479.5 yards and 39.5 points per game, both measures ranking in the top 20 nationally. However, he owes an assist to his offensive line which has allowed only 1 sack on the season.
There’s reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball as well. Star defensive lineman Dontay Corleone has missed the last two games with an injury but should be available to wreak havoc on the Cyclones’ offensive line. Iowa State has allowed 8 sacks already this season and ranks 79th in rushing offense. The opening week win over Kansas State looks considerably less impressive given the Wildcats’ poor play in subsequent weeks, and close wins over Iowa and Arkansas State are not indicative of the 14th best team in the country. This game has major repercussions for the Big 12 title race, and I give Cincinnati the edge playing at home.
UConn -7 vs. Florida International (-125): Using the transitive property can get you in trouble when trying to pick college football games. It’s the same line of thinking that can convince you Old Dominion is a better football program than Georgia. Still, UConn and FIU have a common opponent in Delaware and played wildly different games.
The Huskies lost a high-scoring game in overtime to the Blue Hens on the road, while FIU lost by 22 points at home. Jim Mora’s team has just showed more on both sides of the ball this season. UConn played well at Syracuse and probably should have won the game. The Huskies went into Buffalo last week and beat one of the most experienced teams in the MAC. I think they get another victory here against a Panthers team that has not been able to consistently put points on the board.
FIU’s offense scores only 24 points per game (93rd in the FBS) and ranks 107th in total plays of 10 or more yards. Keyone Jenkins has more interceptions (3) than passing touchdowns (2) and a QBR that ranks 114th among starting FBS quarterbacks. The Panthers have lost nine straight on the road going back to October 2023, and I don’t expect them to break that streak at Pratt & Whitney Stadium.
Buffalo -9.5 vs. Eastern Michigan (-120): Speaking of Buffalo, the Bulls haven’t done a lot this season to deserve to be a two-score favorite in a conference game. Close home losses in back-to-back weeks against Troy and UConn have brought into question whether Pete Lembo’s team is a true contender in the MAC. Honestly, a narrow win against a terrible Kent State team might be a bigger red flag.
Still, I’m breaking out my muleta and riding with the Bulls this week simply because Eastern Michigan has one of the least talented teams in the country. The Eagles rank 134th in the FBS in total defense and last in the country against the run, allowing an astonishing 278.8 yards per game on the ground. Buffalo averages over 38 rushing attempts per game and should be able to exploit the porous front seven of EMU. Chris Creighton’s team has only one win in the record books, a 3-point win against Louisiana, and suffered a shocking Week 2 upset against FCS Long Island University.
This is the sixth meeting between Lembo and Creighton as coaches of MAC teams. Lembo has won four of the first five meetings and should have an advantage here as well.
Other leans: Miami -4.5 at FSU, Duke -3 at Cal, Texas -6.5 at Florida
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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