Predictions and betting guide, best bets Despite being one month into the college football season, there is a lot still left to learn. With conference play picking up in full force this weekend, we should learn important information about which teams are true contenders, and which have been coasting on easy out-of-conference competition.

There are four games between ranked opponents, including monster matchups in University Park and Athens. Additionally, there are 10 games involving ranked teams that have spreads within a touchdown. It will be a fascinating weekend of statement opportunities for the best college football programs in the country.

Before delving into Saturday’s most high-profile games, let’s preview another “statement game” taking place in Charlottesville on Friday night.

Virginia’s Week 5 Preview

Florida State -7 at Virginia, Over 60

Even the most optimistic supporters of these two programs could not have guessed preseason that Friday night’s game would involve two top 5 offenses in college football. Florida State’s offense leads the nation in both total yards (628.7) and points per game (58), while Virginia averages 564.5 yards and 45.5 points per game.

While the two schools run different offensive schemes, the output has been similar thus far. Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos leads the ACC in QBR and ranks third in the FBS. Not to be outdone, UVA’s Chandler Morris enters this game after posting the best QBR performance ever for a Virginia quarterback in Saturday’s win over Stanford. Florida State has five different ball carriers with more than 100 rushing yards on the season. The Cavaliers do as well. The offensive lines have allowed a total of 3 sacks on the season, 2 from Florida State and 1 from Virginia (though Tony Elliott blamed Morris for not throwing the ball away and running out of bounds).

Suffice it to say, both offenses have a lot of talent and there will be points scored. The most pressing question is whether either defense can get stops.

Florida State’s stats can be difficult to parse because of the schedule. Easy victories against East Texas A&M and Kent State certainly inflate the numbers. In fact, the Seminoles enter this game after back-to-back 700+ yard performances, the first team to accomplish that feat since 2015. Still, a two-touchdown win over Alabama in Week 1 demonstrates the overall talent Mike Norvell has on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide were held to only 87 rushing yards in Tallahassee and 4.7 yards per play.

Against the vaunted SEC defensive front, Florida State racked up 230 yards on the ground. Run defense has been a strength at times for Virginia this season, holding Stanford to 35 yards on 31 carries, and limiting all opponents to just more than 100 rushing yards per game. However, the NC State game showed vulnerabilities in the Cavaliers’ front line when facing more physical offensive linemen. In that game, running back Hollywood Smothers and quarterback CJ Bailey were both effective in getting to the second level of the defense. The Hoos will be helped by the return of linebacker Kam Robinson, who led the team in tackles last week and recovered a fumble. Still, keeping Florida State from generating explosive rushing plays will be a major challenge for Virginia.

I also think Florida State has the edge in the secondary. For two straight weeks, Virginia has allowed big throws down the field. William & Mary completed a 79-yard touchdown on a broken coverage and had another wide-open receiver drop a pass in the end zone. Stanford Bryce Farrell got behind the Cavaliers’ secondary twice last week, catching a 60-yard pass and a 68-yard touchdown. On the season, Virginia ranks 73rd in passing yards allowed and has allowed opponents to average 12.36 yards per competition. Because of Florida State’s rushing attack, I think the Cavaliers will again stack the defensive box and leave their corners and safeties on islands in single coverage. It will give Castellanos opportunities to make throws down the field.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles’ secondary ranks 28th in the FBS allowing under 170 yards per game through the air. FSU’s defense also averages an interception per game. Despite the influx of transfer talent that has helped Virginia’s secondary from a season ago, Florida State has the better pass defense.

Virginia has held the Jefferson-Eppes Trophy since 2019, the last meeting between these two teams. Many things have changed for both programs since that game was played in Charlottesville. This is probably the most hyped game of the Tony Elliott era, and a win would fundamentally change the trajectory of what is possible this season for UVA. Still, I think there’s too much of a talent discrepancy on the field to expect the Hoos to win the game. I hope the environment at Scott Stadium and the good vibes from the 1995 throwback uniforms are enough to prove me wrong. Seminoles 38, Cavaliers 24

Week 4 Best Bets

  • Season Record: 9-11 (last week 3-2)
Alabama +3.5 at Georgia (-110): Since taking over in Athens, Kirby Smart has run roughshod through the SEC against everyone but Alabama. Smart has a 1-6 record against the Crimson Tide with his only win coming in the 2022 National Championship. While still a talented team capable of making the College Football Playoff, Georgia has not been nearly as dominant compared to preseason expectations, going 0-3 against the spread on the year. In their only game against a Power 4 opponent, the Bulldogs allowed Tennessee to gain 496 total yards and 7.1 yards per play. If not for a prayer of a pass from Gunner Stockton on fourth down, the Bulldogs would have lost in Knoxville.

Meanwhile, Alabama has been an afterthought following their opening week loss to Florida State. As I said earlier, I think Florida State is immensely talented, and at the end of the season, it may not be seen as a “bad loss” because of the Seminoles’ overall record. Since the road trip to Tallahassee, the Crimson Tide dominated Louisiana-Monroe 73-0 and stifled Wisconsin 38-14. Quarterback Ty Simpson has completed 71.9% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on the year and seems to have shaken off a poor initial showing as the starter. Star running back Jam Miller returns for this game, which should be a boon to the ground game and help with pass protection.

I expect this to be one of the best games of the day. Winning in Athens is never easy, as Georgia the nation’s longest home winning streak at 33 games. Still, I have Alabama as a slight favorite, so I’ll take the points here.

Penn State -3 vs. Oregon (-120): The betting public has hitched its fortune to Oregon in this game. At the time of this writing, 62% of bets and 66% of the handle in DraftKings were on the Ducks to cover in Happy Valley. It makes sense given how dominant Dan Lanning’s team has looked out of the gate.

Through four games, Oregon has beaten teams by an average of 41.5 points. Quarterback Dante Moore has played himself into Heisman consideration, completing 74.7% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception. His offensive line has also kept him upright, allowing only 1 sack on the year (tied with Virginia for second in the FBS).

Still, Oregon looked considerably less sharp in its only road trip of the season, a 20-point win at lowly Northwestern. Beaver Stadium, where Penn State has won 7 of its last 8 “White Out” games, is a completely different beast. The Nittany Lions have not been tested against a formidable opponent this season but have taken care of business all the same. James Franklin’s team has allowed only 17 total points through three games and the front seven has averaged 3 sacks per game. Despite quarterback Drew Allar’s pedestrian play to start the season, he has an NFL-caliber arm and has 32 career starts. After leading his team to the College Football Playoff last season, he will not be intimidated by a game of this magnitude.

According to VSiN, since 2017, home teams are 202-98 when the game features two ranked teams and 176-116-8 against the spread (60.3%). I think the fans in Happy Valley provide a major lift to Penn State in this game.

Mississippi -1.5 vs. LSU (-110): When LSU defeated Clemson in Week 1, it appeared to be a major statement to the college football world that the Bayou Bengals were a National Championship contender. After watching Clemson struggle to beat Troy and lose to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, it might be fair to ask why Brian Kelly’s team didn’t win by more in the opener. I think the Tigers are very talented, but subsequent performances have not been particularly impressive. LSU managed only 23 points against Louisiana Tech, and if not for 5 interceptions from DJ Lagway, the Tigers would have lost to a beleaguered Florida team at home.

Mississippi is battle-tested, already starting the season 2-0 in the conference with wins at Kentucky and versus Arkansas. Last week’s win over Tulane was the most impressive victory, as the Rebels won by 35 and held quarterback Jake Retzlaff to 56 passing yards. Lane Kiffin’s offenses are always elite, and this season is no different. Mississippi averages nearly 45 points per game and ranks 9th in the FBS with 543.2 yards per game. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has played well in relief of the injured Austin Simmons and has demonstrated the ability to make big plays with his arm and legs. However, Simmons is expected to be available if the Rebels need him.

Playing at home has been a decisive factor in this series as of late, with home teams covering the spread in 11 of the last 12 games. Oxford’s atmosphere should be electric in another tightly contested and high-scoring game. Like Kiffin, I also think the over will hit in this game (54 points).

Washington +8.5 vs. Ohio State (-110): Both teams will put impressive streaks on the line in this game. Washington has won 22 straight at home, assembling a 13-8-1 record against the spread during those matchups. On the other hand, Ohio State has won 21 in a row following a bye week. Additionally, Ryan Day is 48-0 against Big Ten opponents who aren’t Oregon or Michigan.

I’m not sure if the Huskies have quite enough to upset the Buckeyes, but I think they keep it close in front of a sold-out crowd at Husky Stadium. Helped by an easy schedule, Washington ranks second in the FBS in points per game (55.7) and 10th in total yards per game (536). Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. has been sensational in his sophomore season. His 93.6 QBR ranks second in the country, and he has accounted for 998 total yards through three games.

Ohio State has already proven it has an exceptional defense, holding offensive guru Steve Sarkisian to only 7 points in the opening week. However, this is quarterback Julian Sayin’s first true road game. He’s thrown 3 interceptions the last two weeks against Grambling and Ohio. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to struggle in one of the most difficult environments in all of college football.

Notre Dame -4 at Arkansas (-115): The Fighting Irish were mocked for starting the year 0-2, but those two games were incredibly difficult. A 3-point loss at No. 2 Miami and a 1-point home defeat against No. 9 Texas A&M are nothing to scoff at.

Marcus Freeman’s offense has outpaced the defense in terms of production. Notre Dame averages 40 points per game on offense but has allowed opponents to score 32.67 points per game (117th in the FBS). Arkansas and the Bobby Petrino-led offense should provide another challenge this week. The Razorbacks average 552 yards per game and quarterback Taylen Green has the No. 4 QBR in the country.

Still, I think Notre Dame comes away with the victory here. For one, Freeman’s teams have played well away from South Bend. Over the last six seasons, the Irish are 30-10 against the spread in neutral or road games. Additionally, Arkansas enters this game after inexplicably giving away the game to Memphis last week. After blowing an 18-point lead, the Razorbacks had the ball in field goal range to win but fumbled on an unnecessary run play. It’s the kind of demoralizing loss that can tank a season.

This should be a fun, back-and-forth game with a lot of scoring, but ultimately, I think Notre Dame comes away with the victory.

Other leans: Indiana at Iowa Over 48.5, BYU -6.5 at Colorado, Duke -5.5 at Syracuse

Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.