Our beloved Hoos open conference play this weekend, along with several other high-profile programs around the country. However, many schools still have work to do with their nonconference schedules. These games may not contribute to the conference championship race, but they do have implications for the College Football Playoff and bowl eligibility. Before most teams fully jump into conference play next week, I wanted to linger on the less familiar matchups on the Saturday slate this weekend.
But first, let’s discuss Virginia’s first ever ACC game against Stanford.
Virginia’s Week 4 Preview
Stanford +15.5 at Virginia, Under 49
Virginia fans can be forgiven for feeling uncomfortable as a heavy favorite against a conference opponent. It’s uncharted territory for a program that has not been viewed positively by Vegas in recent memory. Per Danny Neckel, this is Virginia’s largest spread against a Power 4 opponent since 2007, when the Hoos were favored by 18.5 against Duke. The Hoos failed to cover in that game but still managed to win. I’m expecting a similar result this Saturday at Scott Stadium.
There are clear reasons for optimism in Charlottesville on both sides of the ball. The Cavalier offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Offensive coordinator Des Kitchings, a target of fan ire for years, has had his best season as a play-caller for Virginia and clearly has support in the locker room. Through three games, the Hoos are averaging nearly 45 points per game and rank 8th nationally with 266.7 rushing yards per game.
The offensive line has yet to allow a sack this year, an amazing turnaround from a unit that was near the bottom of the FBS last season in giving up quarterback pressures. Following a game in which the offense totaled a school-record 700 yards from scrimmage against William & Mary, Virginia should be supremely confident entering ACC play.
The defense, which has been solid but inconsistent through three games, should be buttressed by the returns of safety Antonio Clary and linebacker Kam Robinson. Clary brings experience and athleticism to the Cavaliers’ secondary. He is the only player left on the roster who was on the 2019 team that went to the ACC Championship game. Robinson, who injured his collarbone in August, led the team in sacks per game in 2024 and was second in total tackles. As one of the most athletic players on the team, Robinson should improve a Virginia pass rush that has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks. The Hoos only have 4 sacks on the year, 3 of which came against the undersized Tribe last week.
The vibes in Palo Alto are less positive. Stanford fired head coach Troy Taylor in March, leading to a mass exodus of talent from the roster. Former NFL coach Frank Reich was installed as interim head coach to provide transitory leadership during the upheaval. The Cardinal’s play on the field has demonstrated this turbulent offseason. After a Week 0 loss to Hawai’i, Stanford managed only 3 points in a loss to BYU and had 161 total yards.
However, an upset victory at home against Boston College provided a blueprint for how Reich’s team hopes to win on the field. The primary objective is to run the ball down the field and take away decision-making responsibilities from quarterback Ben Gulbranson. With 213 total rushing yards and a big day from running back Micah Ford, Stanford was able to win the time of possession and average 6.8 yards per play. Gulbranson has been one of the worst Power 4 starting quarterbacks in the FBS this season, ranking 128th in QBR and averaging only 5.2 yards per completion. Expect the Cavaliers to load the box and force Gulbranson to try and win the game with his arm.
Stanford’s run defense has been effective this year, holding Boston College to only 56 rushing yards last Saturday and Hawai’i to 96 yards during Week 0. That should be an interesting strength vs. strength matchup with the success UVA has had on the ground this season. The Virginia offensive line will face its biggest test of the year against a front seven that averages 3 sacks per game and 5.3 tackles for a loss.
Virginia cannot be caught looking ahead to a blockbuster matchup against Florida State next Friday night. Stanford will attempt to muck up the game by playing keep away with the time of possession and forcing havoc in the backfield. It might be a messier game than Vegas has anticipated (or Virginia fans would hope for), but ultimately, I think the Cavaliers take care of business with superior talent. Cavaliers 30, Cardinal 17.
Week 4 Best Bets
- Season Record: 6-10; Last Week 1-4
After watching North Carolina give up countless explosive plays to TCU in the opener and miss 19 tackles, I’m not sure the Tar Heels can keep up with the UCF offense. Despite playing back-up quarterback Tayven Jackson for most of the first two games after an injury to starter Cam Fancher, the Knights have averaged 491 yards of total offense per game. Fancher has been cleared to practice this week and may be available, but if not, Jackson should have confidence after leading a UCF offense that gained 10 yards per play against North Carolina A&T. Coming off a bye week, Scott Frost should have his team focused and prepared to take on the one-dimensional Tar Heels.
Miami -7 vs. Florida (-120): With wins over Notre Dame and USF already, Miami has proven it is a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
Carson Beck may not have the NFL arm of Cam Ward, but he has played exceptional football to date. Depending on your sportsbook of choice, Beck has the best odds to win the Heisman Trophy. He ranks fourth in college football with an 89.9 QBR, has completed 79.3% of his passes, and is averaging nearly 10 yards per completion. Freshman receiver Malachi Toney has been a highlight machine and leads the team in receptions and yards. At his current pace, he is poised to have the best rookie season for a wideout in a Miami uniform since Ahmmon Richards in 2016.
The Hurricanes’ front seven has also been stout in stopping the run. Despite playing run-heavy Notre Dame and scrambling threat Byrum Brown of USF, Miami has allowed only 75 yards per game on the ground this year and 2.56 yards per carry. That could spell trouble for Florida which ranks 89th in rushing yards per game on the season. Gators head coach Billy Napier may be hesitant to rely too heavily on quarterback DJ Lagway, though, after he threw 5 interceptions against LSU last Saturday. Despite his preseason hype, Lagway has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and ranks 87th in the FBS on yards per passing attempt.
Direct comparisons can sometimes get you into trouble in college football, but USF provides a helpful barometer since Florida and Miami played the Bulls on successive weeks. The Gators were upset at home 18-16, while the Hurricanes ran them out of Hard Rock Stadium by 37 points. This is a game Miami won confidently in Gainesville last year 41-17. If we get another result like that this Saturday, it may be the last game Napier coaches at Florida.
UTSA -4 at Colorado State (-120): The Roadrunners bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Texas State in Week 2 with a dominant win over Incarnate Word last week. Jeff Traylor’s offense, particularly the run game, has been effective all season. UTSA averages 36 points per game and 217.3 yards per game on the ground. This is a team that played well in a loss in College Station in Week 1, matching Texas A&M’s offensive output in first downs with only 26 fewer yards. I expect another strong offensive showing against a Colorado State team that returned only two defensive starters from a season ago.
Through two games, the Jay Norvell’s team has not impressed at all, allowing 509 total yards to Washington in the opener and narrowly defeating FCS Northern Colorado at home by only 4 points. Behind the shaky play of quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, the Rams rank 113th in the FBS in passing yards per game and are averaging a meager 5.44 yards per attempt. I simply do not believe Colorado State has the offense to keep up with UTSA.
UNLV -2.5 at Miami (OH) (-110): Dan Mullen has received some internet buzz for the open Virginia Tech job. He’s certainly impressed during his first year in Las Vegas. Behind the rejuvenated play of former UVA quarterback Anthony Colandrea, the Rebels are 3-0 to start the year and are a serious threat to win the Mountain West Conference.
Colandrea has assumed full-time control of the offense after a season-ending injury to Alex Orji. He’s done all the good things you remember from his time in Charlottesville - creating explosive plays with his arms and legs - without the costly turnovers that derailed the 2024 Cavaliers’ season. After completing only 61.9% of his passes at UVA last year, Colandrea has improved that number to 75.4% and only thrown 1 interception compared to 6 touchdowns. He’s also added 175 yards rushing on 30 carries, making Mullen’s offense difficult to gameplan against.
This pick is more in support of UNLV than a knock against the RedHawks. After being cannon fodder to Wisconsin and Rutgers in the first two weeks, it’s hard to know how Miami will respond in its first home game of the season. Still, the Rebels have played well recently in non-conference games, finishing 26-7 against the spread since 2017. I’ll lay the short number and hope that Colandrea keeps up his stellar play.
UTEP -5 vs. UL Monroe (-110): Coaches frequently like to say there’s no such thing as a “good loss.” I think the Miners’ performance in Austin last week qualifies, though.
Despite entering the game as a 40+ point underdog, UTEP bottled up preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning, forcing 10 straight incompletions and holding the Longhorns to a meager 4.2 yards per play. Quarterback Malachi Nelson, a former 5-star recruit who played stints at USC and Boise State, threw for nearly twice as many passing yards as Manning. After playing competitive road games against Utah State and Texas, the Miners should be battle-tested for a game against Sun Belt bottom-feeder, Louisiana Monroe.
It’s tough to know what to expect from a Warhawks team that has played two games on the extremes of the talent spectrum. After a sleepy victory over St. Francis in Week 1, UL-Monroe was dismantled 73-0 by an angry Alabama team in Week 2. Still, I think there are plenty of reasons for concern. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has completed only 54.1% of his passes and is averaging only 3.3 yards per completion. His QBR rating of 7.4 ranks 135th in the country. Bryant Vincent’s program has made a bowl game just once since moving up from the FCS ranks in 1994 and has a seven-game losing streak against FBS opponents. I expect another difficult road trip to El Paso this weekend.
Other leans: Boise State -9.5 at Air Force, Memphis +7.5 vs. Arkansas, Georgia Tech -23.5 vs. Temple
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!