Tony Elliott entered the 2025 season with a career record of 11-23 at Virginia. One of the factors in that slow start had been the program’s play at Scott Stadium. The Hoos won only 6 games at home over three years.
Each year went the same too. 2-4, 2-4, 2-4. Multiple, times this offseason Elliott pointed to that fact as one of the main targets for improvement. The start of the 2025 season has delivered so far as UVA already matched the win totals of the first three years thanks to a 2-0 start at Scott Stadium. Virginia still has five home games remaining too.
The Hoos get a chance at win No. 3 in Charlottesville this weekend when Stanford comes to town for the first time ever. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. as the two teams meet in an ACC matchup. Virginia has won 11 of its last 15 games at night at Scott Stadium, but the last home win at night against an ACC opponent came in 2021. UVA has also won five of the last six games against first-time opponents.
“They got some things that challenge you in all three phases that we got to be prepared for,” Virginia coach Tony Elliott said. “So I’m excited to see how our guys respond to Stanford, a team that we haven't played before. I'm excited too, because it's the first time that Virginia and Stanford have played, first time that I've played against Stanford. And Coach [Frank Reich] is a very accomplished football coach, very, very good at what he does, done it at the highest level. You can see some of the pro influence on what they do offensively, so it's going to be a fun challenge.“
Check out the trends, keys, and picks for Week 4.
3 Trends To Know
1. Opening drives. Virginia has scored on its first drive of the half in four of six opportunities this season. For the first half, UVA posted touchdowns against NC State and William & Mary but missed a field goal against Coastal Carolina. For the second half, the Hoos got touchdowns against the Chanticleers and Tribe but punted against the Wolfpack.
That’s already matched the start of the second half when compared to 2024. Last season, the Cavaliers scored on their first drive after halftime just twice in 12 games. For first halves, they scored four times on their first drive in 12 games. That means Virginia just needs to score just twice on half-opening drives to match last season’s total with nine games (18 opportunities) to go.
2. Cazeem Moore pressures quarterbacks. Elon transfer Cazeem Moore has opened his Virginia career with 4 QB hurries in three games per Pro Football Focus. He had 2 against both Coastal Carolina and William & Mary. With those two games now on the list, Moore has multiple quarterback hurries in 13 of his last 15 games. Last season at Elon, he had 9 games with multiple hurries and finished with 26 for the season. With the Phoenix, he also tallied 6 sacks so the consistent pressure paid off. Moore is looking for his first sack as a Hoo.
3. Noah Josey has started 31 straight games. Left guard Noah Josey has been a regular offensive lineman for the Hoos, starting every game of 2023 and 2024 and now the first three of 2025. Josey currently leads UVA in the Pro Football Focus pass blocking grades with an 87.9 on the season. He has not allowed a pressure on 88 opponent attempts. That’s part of the overall effort by the O-Line, which has not allowed a sack yet this season. Stanford enters the game with 9 sacks in three games.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Virginia rush offense vs. Stanford rush defense. Through three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 44.7 points per game and a lot of the offense’s success has come on the ground. UVA has posted 266.67 rushing yards per game, good enough for No. 8 nationally, with 12 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for No. 3 nationally. Coach Elliott and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings philosophically have wanted to run the ball consistently to help create a more explosive offense overall, so this start has been good for that vision.
On the flipside, Stanford is tied for No. 40 nationally in run defense at 103.00 yards allowed per game. The Cardinal have given up 3 rushing touchdowns (tied for No. 48) and 3.51 yards per carry (No. 56).
If UVA keeps the running game going, that could be a key part of the eventual outcome.
2. Pass defense breakdowns. Both teams enter this game having shown some problems defending big pass plays at time. Virginia has given up 10 passing plays of 20+ yards (tied for No. 91 nationally), including a 79-yard touchdown pass to William & Mary last week. Stanford has given up 11 passing plays of 20+ yards (tied for No. 112), including a 49-yard touchdown pass to Boston College last week. Of the two offenses, UVA has been more likely to create its own big pass plays with 11 20+ yard receptions (tied for No. 36), while Stanford has 6 (tied for No. 101). If either defense has a lot of problems allowing big pass plays in this one, it could be something that swings the game. Note, the Cardinal did have a 69-yard touchdown completion last week in a win.
3. Turnovers. As always, this could be a key for any week but Stanford has scored 53 total points this season with 5 touchdowns. Of those 5 TDs, 2 have come from the defense on turnovers - Wilfredo Aybar scored on a strip sack fumble recovery against Hawaii and Collin Wright returned an interception for a score against Boston College. In its only win that came against BC, Stanford forced three turnovers and the offense scored after all three. In other words, the Cardinal offense seems to need help generating points so far this season.
On the other side, UVA has only 2 turnovers with a pair of interceptions. That’s led to a 0.33 positive turnover margin since the defense has 3 takeaways for the season to date. Stanford has 4 turnovers with 3 interceptions from its offense.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Jahmal Edrine. Edrine and quarterback Chandler Morris found a little rhythm late against NC State and Stanford’s defense can be vulnerable to big pass plays. Edrine could be the next player to have a big day for this offense. The Virginia receiver has 11 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown this season.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Mitchell Melton. UVA’s edge defender has 10 tackles and leads the team with 2.5 tackles for loss. He seems to be getting closer to sacks as he settles in and could add to that category this week.
3. Winner: Virginia 41, Stanford 20. The oddsmakers made UVA a big favorite in this matchup, which is strange territory of late for Cavalier football fans. Still, Virginia looks like the better team so far this season and will have a chance for another big winning margin at home. Season to date: 2-1
1 Comment