One of the most difficult things to determine as a sports bettor is how to weight homefield advantage. Young and inexperienced teams can absolutely become shellshocked by raucous environments. Given the increased roster turnover that has taken place in programs throughout the country, I have leaned heavily on home teams early in the season, anticipating that road teams would struggle with communication and execution in the opening weeks.
However, it’s also important not to overvalue a team just because they don’t have to travel. Ask any Hokies fan and they will rave about the hostile environment that Lane Stadium provides. However, it’s also true that Virginia Tech has not won a non-conference home game against a Power 4 opponent since 2009. As guest Noah Fleischman said on the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast this week, talent usually wins out in college football. Now that teams have played a couple games, we can make more informed decisions about where those talent discrepancies exist.
My picks this week feature games where the road team is the favorite. Despite the disadvantage of playing away from home, I think there is an opportunity for value. But first, let’s examine a home game as Virginia returns to Scott Stadium for a game against a familiar opponent.
Virginia’s Week 3 Preview
Vegas has not yet released a line for this game because it is an FBS/FCS matchup (expect it to be available Friday in most places). When sportsbooks do put forward a line, it will be heavily tilted toward the Hoos. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects this as a 40-12 game, while Kelley Ford gives the Cavaliers a 96% chance of winning. Being this heavy of a favorite is an unfamiliar place for most Virginia fans, but it makes sense given the roster construction of both programs.
Mike London has not enjoyed his three return trips to Charlottesville as head coach of William & Mary. London came closest to scoring an upset victory in the last meeting between these schools in 2023. The Tribe jumped out to a 13-3 lead before the Cavaliers answered with 24 straight points to put the game away. London’s team already has experience playing in close contests this season. After losing in Week 1 to Furman on a late field goal, William & Mary managed to squeak out a one-point win against Maine last Saturday. If the Tribe are involved in a third straight nail-biter, it will be very concerning to Virginia fans.
Over his seven seasons in Williamsburg, London has consistently built formidable defenses. This year is no different, as the Tribe have the 15th-ranked defense in the FCS by allowing only 280 yards per game. This unit is led by linebacker Luke Banbury, recently named the FCS Nation Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against Maine, who already has 30 tackles on the season. In addition to pressuring the quarterback and chasing down ball-carriers, Banbury is talented in coverage as well. His pass breakup led to the interception that put the game away last Saturday.
Despite early season injuries, Virginia’s offensive line has held up well. After giving up 47 sacks in 2024, the Cavaliers have yet to allow a sack this season. Amazingly, it’s the first time since 2014 that UVA has not conceded a sack in back-to-back games. Ensuring Chandler Morris stays upright and has time to throw against Banbury and the Tribe’s front seven is critical.
On the other side of the ball, Virginia’s defense will need to keep quarterback Tyler Hughes in check. The dual-threat play-caller is the team’s leading rusher with 25 carries on the season, along with 337 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. After allowing NC State quarterback CJ Bailey to have success on the ground, both on scripted runs and scrambling out of the pocket, John Rudzinski’s unit will need to greatly improve its lane discipline and tackling. If the defense can keep Hughes in the pocket and force him to be a more traditional passer, it will be difficult for William & Mary to score consistently.
Virginia has the superior talent and should win the game comfortably assuming there isn’t an emotional letdown after the close loss to NC State. The biggest key to this game will be avoiding costly turnovers. William & Mary’s last victory in Charlottesville came in 2009 when UVA coughed the ball up seven times. London’s team has forced a turnover in 12 consecutive games going back to last season. Virginia’s offense has managed to avoid these pivotal plays thus far (with one notable exception). If the Cavaliers protect the ball and avoid giving the Tribe a short field, it should be an easy victory. Cavaliers 38, Tribe 13
Week 3 Best Bets
- Season Record: 5-5
However, Dabo Swinney always seems to bring the best out of his team when he’s counted out. The defense is still one of the strongest in the ACC, allowing only 3 touchdowns thus far and forcing 5 turnovers. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King sat last week with a nagging lower body injury. Though he is practicing this week and will likely play, I don’t think the Yellow Jackets offense can be effective as against Clemson if King is not sufficiently mobile. After racking up huge chunk plays against Colorado and Gardner-Webb, I expect this Saturday to be tough sledding.
Brent Key is 6-1 against ranked ACC opponents during his tenure and the Yellow Jackets have won six straight at home. Still, I’m willing to go against these trends because Clemson is at such a discount. I still believe in the Tigers’ returning production and think they will ultimately make the ACC title game.
Pittsburgh -6.5 at West Virginia (-120): Few rivalries are as contentious as the Backyard Brawl and I expect Morgantown to be electric before kickoff. While I try to avoid overreacting to singular, recent data points, I’m having a tough time overlooking West Virginia’s poor performance in Athens last Saturday. Ohio outgained the Mountaineers by 179 yards en route to a 17-10 win. Rich Rodriguez’s offense looked hapless and could not sustain drives, managing only 72 rushing yards, 4.5 yards per play, and under 20 minutes of total possession.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 53 points per game. Quarterback Eli Holstein has been stellar in his second year at the helm, leading the ACC in passing efficiency (199.99) and touchdowns (8). He’s the first Pitt quarterback since 2003 to open a season with two games of 4 passing touchdowns each. Running back Desmond Reid has once again proven to be one of the most dynamic and versatile athletes in the conference, gaining 141 all-purpose yards on Saturday against Central Michigan.
The Panthers’ defense has been solid as well, allowing only 212.5 yards of total offense per game and 38.5 rushing yards. Yes, Pittsburgh has yet to play a Power 4 opponent this season. Still, Pat Narduzzi should have his team fully prepared for this heated rivalry and the atmosphere at Milan Puskar Stadium.
Appalachian State -2 at Southern Mississippi (-110): A 20-13 victory over Lindenwood likely left the hometown supporters in Boone wanting. Despite amassing 503 yards of offense, penalties, turnovers, and red zone inefficiency kept the game closer than expected. Still, there were reasons for optimism following this game.
The opposing Lions finished with negative rushing yards and were held to 3 of 17 on third down conversions. The Appalachian State offense has been explosive to start the season, ranking 9th in the FBS in passing yards and 12th in total offense. Quarterback AJ Swann has already thrown for 661 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season and has demonstrated the ability to stretch the field with his arm. Similarly, Arkansas transfer running back Rashod Dubinion has 305 rushing yards on 47 carries.
While Southern Mississippi has improved its defense from a season ago, the program still has a way to go to be formidable. The Golden Eagles allowed opposing offenses to gain 117.2 yards and 9.8 points per quarter last season. In two games, Charles Huff’s defense has allowed 188 and 191 rushing yards to Mississippi State and Jackson State, respectively. While the offense has talent and should be able to put some points on the board, I don’t think the Southern Miss defense can get enough stops to keep up with the high-octane Mountaineers.
Appalachian State has a 9-2 record in Sun Belt conference openers. I think they add another one to the record books on Saturday in Hattiesburg.
Memphis -3.5 at Troy (-110): This line has moved toward Troy in part because of the scare the Trojans put into Clemson last week. Despite an impressive first half, Troy was outscored 24-0 in the second half and quarterback Will “Goose” Crowder threw 3 interceptions in the game. Through two games, Gerad Parker’s team has shown flashes of brilliance as well as stretches of middling play. Given Memphis’ offensive prowess, I don’t think Troy can afford to be so uneven.
Ryan Silverfield has prioritized the ground game this season for Memphis, piling up an average of 219 rushing yards per game on 6 yards per carry. This approach has propelled the offense to 41.5 points per game and opened up the passing game for sixth year quarterback Brendon Lewis. With the 20th ranked QBR in the FBS, Lewis has completed 79.2% of his passes and rushed for 7.8 yards per carry. Memphis won this game 38-17 last season at home. While I expect it to be closer in Alabama this Saturday, I still think the Tigers win comfortably.
Air Force -4 at Utah State (-110): Former UVA head coach Bronco Mendenhall has performed better than expected in his first year in Logan. Despite having the lowest percentage of returning production in the Mountain West, Mendenhall’s team defeated UTEP in the opening game and scored 22 points against Texas A&M last week. After getting bruised by an SEC school, Utah State must now face an improved Air Force squad coming off an extra week of rest.
Troy Calhoun’s program finished with a 5-7 record last season but returns 129 starts of production. Air Force overpowered Bucknell in the opening week game, amassing 267 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per play. Late down execution was sharp (a must for triple option teams), as the Falcons converted on 6 of 9 third down attempts and one fourth down attempt as well. Even though there’s still much to learn about Calhoun’s program this season, I think the edge in experience will ultimately be decisive. If nothing else, this game should be a fascinating matchup between two of the winningest active coaches in college football.
Other leans: Georgia -3 at Tennessee, Mississippi -7 vs. Arkansas, Miami -17 vs. South Florida
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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