When Virginia and NC State lock horns this Saturday in Raleigh, it will come with a little bit of history. This marks the first time since 1948 the teams will play as non-conference opponents.
That sort of odd twist comes during the age of super-sized conferences where teams that share a league don’t always play one another. This is NCSU coach Dave Doeren’s 13th season in Raleigh, for example, and this will mark just his fourth matchup against Virginia. And the teams agreed to it vs. it being assigned by the ACC, their shared home since 1954.
Doeren told local media that he likes playing teams that are more regional in focus and this game is a good fit. UVA and NCSU square off at noon on ESPN2.
Non-conference or not, Virginia has treated its preparation as if that label didn’t exist. The Hoos know they have a tough matchup against the Wolfpack, who have reached bowl eligibility 10 times in Doeren’s first 12 seasons. Plus, even if the UVA program hasn’t seen NC State much, the coaches have. Virginia coach Tony Elliott faced off against the Pack yearly in the ACC’s old Atlantic Division and Cavalier offensive coordinator Des Kitchings was on Doeren’s staff for seven seasons.
Elliott’s first look at NCSU this week showed the same characteristics he’s used to seeing.
“They’re very similar to what they’ve always been in the trenches,” Elliott said. “They’re big up front, athletic linebackers can run, and then they got athletes in the secondary. So it’s a typical NC State team. It fits coach [Dave] Doeren’s identity and how they approach it. He’s a defensive guy and he wants to wants to win up front with the defensive line, be physical, and then offensively, you know, he wants an offense that can that can line up, put their hand in the dirt, and come after you. So that’s what you see out of them. Some really, really good skill guys too that can make you, that force you to defend the field vertically and horizontally.”
Both teams opened with wins last week and oddsmakers currently show little difference between the two 1-0 teams. The spread has hovered around NC State as a 3-point favorite for much of the week. That means the teams and outside observers both expect a tight contest this week. What will make the difference for the win column? Here are some trends, keys, and picks to know.
3 Trends To Know
1. Brady Wilson’s UVA Debut Matched His UAB Success. Virginia brought in offensive lineman Brady Wilson for its center position during the offseason. It liked his play at UAB over the last three seasons as a regular starter. During his time with the Blazers, Wilson allowed only 1 sack in the Pro Football Focus data and he logged pass blocking grades in the 80’s 12 times from 2022-2024. That included the final three games of 2024. An 82.5 pass blocking grade against Coastal Carolina gave him an 82.5 or better in 6 of his last 8 games.
2. NC State Can Be Stingy Against The Run. Coach Elliott noted the physical style NC State brings to the table defensively. That showed up with its run defense in the season opener. The Wolfpack allowed only 30 total rushing yards against East Carolina. That marked the 54th time in Doeren’s 153 games at NCSU that the defense held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing. That’s 35% of the time or 1 out of 3 games.
The stout run defense in the opener pushed State back toward its success from 2022 and 2023. In those two seasons, the Pack ranked 11th (2022, 100.69 rushing yards per game allowed) and 25th (2023, 116.46 rushing yards per game) nationally against the run. After slipping to 79th (2024, 157.00 rushing yards per game) nationally last season, Doeren and Wolfpack fans hope the first game of 2025 is a sign of things to come.
3. Virginia Special Teams Updating ‘Last Time’ Categories Of Late. In the 4-7 win against Coastal Carolina in the season opener, the Cavaliers got some big contributions from the special teams units. Cam Ross made a splash with a 100-yard kickoff return for touchdown that matched the school record, while Caleb Hardy blocked a punt. Both replaced plays from 2019 on ‘the last time Virginia ...’ list. Over the last five games, UVA has blocked a field goal, blocked a punt, and returned a kickoff for touchdown.
3 Keys To The Game
1. Who has the better pass defense? As alluded to above, Wilson and the Cavaliers did not allow a sack in week one. That helped quarterback Chandler Morris settle in and he ended up with 264 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19-27 passing. NC State, meanwhile, allowed 383 yards passing in its 24-17 win against East Carolina. The Pirates completed 68.9% (31-45) of their passes at 8.5 yards per attempt. The Wolfpack had 1 sack and 0 INTs. If Virginia can protect Morris, can he exploit similar gaps in the State D? Or will the NCSU group tune up that part of its defense this week?
On the flipside, the Pack allowed 1 sack on the way to a 300-yard passing day of their own. CJ Bailey completed 24 of 34 passes for 318 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. That included 9.4 yards per attempt. UVA’s pass defense was up to the Air Raid challenge posed by Coastal Carolina in Week 1, making MJ Morris uncomfortable to the tune of 20-36 passing for 163 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT. That’s a big jump forward from 2024 when the Hoos finished 121st nationally in pass defense by allowing 263.1 yards per game. Can the Cavaliers continue the improvement in Week 2? Or if UVA can’t pressure Bailey enough, will he be able to rip off big plays with some talented receivers?
2. Red zone repeat. One of the big storylines for Virginia in its opener was the ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. The Wahoos had 4 touchdowns on 6 red zone trips, a TD percentage of 66.7%. For a team that averaged just 1.6 red zone touchdowns per game in 2024 with a 43.18% TD percentage, it was a welcomed development. UVA put a lot of emphasis on that part of the game in the offseason, making it a day one install in both the spring and fall, Coach Elliott said. The Cavaliers need that added work to keep paying off.
On the opposite side, NC State allowed 1 touchdown on 3 red zone trips against ECU. The Pack allowed just a 54.0% TD rate last season as well so the defense will challenge the Hoos in this area.
3. Finish in the fourth. On cruise control last week, Virginia still won the fourth quarter 6-0 in a big 48-7 win against Coastal Carolina. That built on last season’s trend where UVA won the fourth quarter in 7 of 12 games on the way to outscoring opponents 97-66, a reversal from Elliott’s first two seasons.
On the other sideline, however, NC State had a similar success story last season. The Wolfpack outscored their opponents 155-85 in the fourth quarter in 2024, helping fuel four fourth quarter rallies where State overcame a third quarter deficit to win. The opposite happened in game one, though. East Carolina won the final quarter 10-0 and threatened to tie the game in the final minute before turning the ball over on downs at the State 10-yard line.
In a game that most expect to be close, that final quarter could play a big role.
3 Virginia Picks
1. Offensive Player of the Game: Trell Harris. Overshadowed a bit thanks to the big game from Cam Ross (7 catches, 124 yards, 1 TD), Harris had a strong outing too with 3 catches for 93 yards. The 6’0”, 200-pound receiver could find some openings if NC State’s defense struggles against the pass again this week.
2. Defensive Player of the Game: Fisher Camac. With Virginia rotating heavily on defense in the opener, figuring out who a standout might be each week could be tough. Still, Camac had a sneaky good game in his Cavalier debut. The 6’7”, 248-pound transfer was credited with 5 tackles and 0.5 sacks by UVA and 1 QB hurry by Pro Football Focus last week. Camac came on strong down the stretch last season for UNLV and and now has sacks in five of his last seven games. Camac also had 5 batted passes last season, something NC State’s Bailey has had some trouble with at times (10 batted passes against in his career).
3. Winner: Hoos 31, Wolfpack 27. NC State faced the closer test in Week 1 so that could be an edge if this game turns out to be as close as everyone expects. Still, Virginia is chasing a break-through year and seems to know this is a huge game on the schedule in that regard. Hoos squeak out a win.
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