The opening weekend of the college football season was filled with high-profile matchups and intriguing coaching debuts. Even if certain games didn’t live up to the hype (looking at you, Bill Belichick), it was an entertaining way to start the season. Week 2 has considerably less pizzazz on paper, but it still features several critical non-conference games that will eventually impact bowl and playoff contention.
It is often said that “familiarity breeds contempt.” With my picks this week, I’ve focused on non-conference games where the teams, players, or fans have an interesting history. As always, let’s start with Virginia who is playing a very familiar opponent in a non-ACC game.
Virginia Week 2 Preview
NC State -2.5 vs. UVA, Under 54 Total Points
While UVA played as well as can be expected in its opening game, NC State’s Week 1 victory over East Carolina was a bit of a mixed bag. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, the Wolfpack needed a fourth down stop in the final minute deep in their own territory to secure the win. The game highlighted everything dangerous about Dave Doeren’s team as well as how it could be exploited.
The Wolfpack defense was disruptive, but also porous. NC State forced 9 tackles for loss and provided consistent pressure on Pirates’ quarterback Katin Houser. However, the back end of the defense also allowed 10 explosive plays, including a touchdown where coverage was blown immediately following a sack. The front seven kept the ECU ground game in check all day, limiting the Pirates to only 30 rushing yards. However, the secondary allowed 383 passing yards against an offensive unit with significant turnover and question marks entering the season.
The offense under first year offensive coordinator Kurt Roper was similarly messy. Quarterback CJ Bailey, who Tony Elliott compared to Lamar Jackson earlier this week, was effective getting the ball out to his talented receiving corps. Bailey threw for 318 yards and a touchdown while completing 70.6% of his passes. He also added a rushing touchdown on a draw that highlighted his speed and physicality. However, after starting the game with 17 points in the first 19 minutes of the game, NC State stalled on several drives, missed two field goals, and played more conservatively in the second half. As someone who hosts a podcast with an NC State fanatic, I can tell you that the in-game inconsistency from Doeren’s teams is equal parts frustrating and baffling.
For Virginia, I think this game comes down to the play of its offensive line. Can the Cavaliers give quarterback Chandler Morris time to find openings behind the defense? While the Hoos gave up 0 sacks to the Chanticleers, NC State’s pass rush presents a more daunting challenge. After suffering several preseason injuries, the Cavaliers’ offensive line took another hit with an injury to right tackle Wallace Unamba, who is questionable for Saturday. However, when the line does give Morris opportunities to scan the field, dynamic playmakers like Cam Ross and Trell Harris can stretch the defense.
The vibes in Charlottesville have improved dramatically after a dominant opening win. Vegas has reacted, shrinking a preseason line that was closer to a touchdown in NC State’s favor. The line has inched under a field goal as a number of bettors have placed moneyline wagers on the Hoos. It’s a huge opportunity for the Cavaliers to make a statement and flip the narrative about what is possible this season. However, given Tony Elliott’s 5-10 record on the road, a difficult atmosphere at Carter-Finley Stadium where UVA has not won since 2012, and Virginia not being at full strength on either side of the ball, I have reservations about this game. I expect the game to be close, but I think there has been a Vegas overreaction to one data point. Wolfpack 28, Cavaliers 23
Week 2 Best Bets
- Season Record: 3-2
First, I liked what I saw from Dave Aranda’s offense. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns without any turnovers. The secondary was the weakest part of SMU’s defense last season, allowing nearly 225.8 passing yards per game. If East Texas A&M can throw for 244 passing yards against the Mustangs, then I expect Baylor to find lots of openings as well. I’m also concerned about SMU’s health and depth early in the season. The Ponies suffered a couple of critical injuries in their opener, losing leading returning receiver Jordan Hudson and starting linebacker Alex Kilgore.
The movement of this line is counterintuitive based on Week 1 results and SMU’s ranking. At DraftKings, despite 78% of the bets coming in on the home team, the line has shifted in Baylor’s direction. This is known in the gambling industry as “reverse line movement” and indicates that professional bettors are placing larger wagers on the opposite team as the betting public. “Sharps” aren’t always right of course, but I’m willing to take a chance here that the pros know something the rest of us don’t.
Kansas +7 at Missouri (-120): It’s been 14 years since the last edition of the “Border War.” Despite the pause in the series, it’s still the eighth-longest running rivalry in FBS history dating back to 1891 with 120 meetings. There is legitimate hatred between these schools and the fan bases, and I expect the game to be a close one.
Kansas has looked sharp out of the gate this season, winning comfortably against Fresno State and Wagner. Jalon Daniels, a dark horse Heisman candidate, is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. He has dramatically improved his passing this season, completing 80% of his passes for 7 touchdowns with only 1 interception.
Eli Drinkwitz started the season with two quarterbacks to evaluate, but the decision was made for him when Sam Horn was knocked out of the opener. Beau Pribula played well against Central Arkansas, but he lacks significant real game experience. Including last week, Pribula has only attempted 84 career passes. He is a talented runner with 104 college carries and a 6.1-yard average, but one of Kansas’ strengths this season has been its ability to defend the run. Through two games, the Jayhawks have only allowed 90 total yards on the ground.
One thing to watch if the game is close late: Missouri’s kicker, Blake Craig, tore his ACL last week and will miss the remainder of the season. Getting a full touchdown, I’ll take the points in what should be a feisty rivalry game.
Virginia Tech -1 vs. Vanderbilt (-110): When Virginia Tech lost last season in Nashville, it was a shocking and embarrassing opening week result. In retrospect, losing to a bowl-eligible Vanderbilt team that beat Alabama, Auburn, and Kentucky - and nearly upset Texas - shouldn’t have been surprising. Diego Pavia and the Commodores snuck up on a lot of teams last season with an offense that kept opposing defenses guessing. Pavia is gritty and tough to tackle, rushing 193 times last season and averaging 4.8 yards per carry in his career.
I think the Hokies’ defense will be more prepared in the rematch on Saturday. Virginia Tech successfully kept quarterback LaNorris Sellers in the pocket for most of Sunday afternoon’s game against South Carolina, holding the future first-round draft pick to only 25 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Hokies’ front seven was able to provide pressure throughout the game, getting Sellers for 4 sacks and providing 7 tackles for a loss. A special teams touchdown and untimely interceptions from quarterback Kyron Drones doomed what was otherwise an even game. Virginia Tech outgained the Gamecocks, won the time of possession by more than eight minutes, and converted twice as many third downs.
Brent Pry has an improbably poor record in one-score games during his tenure in Blacksburg (1-12). This figures to be a tight one as well. I’m betting on Lane Stadium providing a boost in a game that the Hokies, and Pry, desperately need.
North Carolina -13.5 at Charlotte (-110): There is no concept more fundamental in economics than “buy low, sell high.” I’m not sure North Carolina’s stock could be any lower after a disastrous opening game for the Bill Belichick era. The six-time Super Bowl champion coach never allowed 48 points in a game at any point in his illustrious career but managed to do it in his first collegiate game. As fun as it is to clown on a rival school, I’m going to buy the dip here in a get-right game.
Facing an Appalachian State team with lots of roster turnover and significant questions at quarterback, Charlotte managed little resistance in Week 1. The 49ers conceded 586 yards of total offense and 404 yards through the air. Assuming Belichick makes a switch at quarterback, Max Johnson should be able to carve up Charlotte’s secondary and provide the Tar Heels’ offense with a much-needed punch. Despite coming off the bench, Johnson finished the weekend with the highest QBR of all ACC quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 passes. By comparison, starter Gio Lopez finished last with a 1.9 and was responsible for more TCU touchdowns off turnovers than he could orchestrate from his own offense.
North Carolina’s defense will also benefit from not having to face a ground game as talented as what TCU brought to Chapel Hill. Charlotte managed only 76 rushing yards on 29 attempts against the Mountaineers on Friday. Former UNC quarterback Conner Harrell, now the starter in the Queen City, struggled as well, completing only 13 of 24 passes with a QBR of 21.5.
Jerry Richardson Stadium didn’t provide a homefield advantage for the 49ers last week, and it should be a pro-Carolina crowd on Saturday. As embarrassing as Monday night was for Belichick, the schedule should play to UNC’s favor the rest of September with games against Richmond and UCF looming.
Mississippi -10 at Kentucky (-110): I’m throwing in one conference game because I love the value. An inexplicable late September home loss to the Wildcats last season doomed Lane Kiffin’s College Football Playoff aspirations. There is no chance that the Rebels will be unprepared for this revenge game.
After finishing 2024 ranked second in yards per game and third in points per game, Mississippi picked up where it left off in its opener, scoring 63 points and gaining 695 yards against Georgia State. No team gained more yards this weekend than the Rebels.
Meanwhile, Kentucky played uninspired football in its opener, narrowly defeating Toledo. The Wildcats were outgained by the Rockets and managed only 85 yards passing. Averaging 4.6 yards per play is not a realistic path to defeating a Kiffin-coached offense.
Kiffin’s teams have a history of dropping random games at inopportune times, but that won’t happen this weekend. Kentucky simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.
Other leans: BYU -18 vs. Stanford, Fresno State +3 at Oregon State, Memphis -13.5 at Georgia State
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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