It’s been over seven months since we last got to see meaningful college football games, but starting Thursday night, you can binge all the football you can handle for five straight days. Week 1 has it all: heavyweight matchups with College Football Playoff implications, tricky Power 4 teams facing challenging Group of 5 opponents, and intriguing out-of-conference games that could set the tone for the season.
It is always difficult to make predictions in the opening week of the season. I expect 2025 to be even more chaotic given the number of players who changed programs via the transfer portal. For this reason, I always recommend moderation when placing bets in Week 1. There’s nothing worse than losing a significant portion of your gambling budget before the calendar even reaches September.
Fortunately, Vegas is also working with limited information when setting their lines, so there are opportunities to find value if you know where to look. Here’s my best attempt at sifting through the preseason noise to find early season winners.
Let’s start by examining the Cavaliers’ home opener.
Virginia Week 1 Preview
Coastal Carolina +12 at UVA, Under 58 Total Points
The line for this game has bounced around between 10.5 and 12 points over the last few days as bettors have made competing wagers on how this game will go. Considering the new faces on both teams, I understand Vegas’ indecisiveness.
Between the transfer portal and high school recruiting, Virginia has 54 new players on the roster while Coastal Carolina will debut 57 newcomers on Saturday. This poses a challenge for both coaching staffs and pundits in predicting what to expect.
If nothing else, the game should look different than last year’s 43-24 Cavaliers’ win in Myrtle Beach. Fans should expect a more open and dangerous Chanticleers offense with Drew Hollingshead calling plays. An “Air Raid” specialist from the Mike Leach coaching tree, Hollingshead will look for quarterback MJ Morris to get the ball out quickly to his receivers in space. Morris, formerly of NC State and Maryland, has immense athleticism, but has struggled at times with decision-making. Whether Hollingshead’s style of play can unlock Morris’ potential remains to be seen, but on Saturday it will provide Virginia’s rebuilt secondary with a significant challenge. Virginia defensive coordinator John Rudzinski mentioned in his media availability this week that he wants to get lots of different cornerbacks in the game. This may be a necessity to keep players fresh after running around in coverage.
I’m less sold on the Coastal defense. Head coach Tim Beck returns only three starters from a defense that struggled to stop opposing offenses and allowed more than 31 points per game. Virginia racked up 384 yards on the ground during last season’s matchup. CCU’s season average was only 186 yards per game, which ranked 108th in the FBS. Perhaps an infusion of talent and new coordinator will turn around the Chants’ defense, but this should be a great opportunity for the Hoos to put points up on the scoreboard.
Both teams may experience early sloppiness with so much roster turnover, but I think Virginia’s experience eventually wins out. Of the 22 players listed at the top of the Cavaliers’ depth chart released this week, 18 are either seniors or graduate transfers. There may be some nervy moments in Scott Stadium, but I believe the Hoos will ultimately prevail. Hoos 31, Chants 24.
College Football Predictions & Best Bets - Week 1
Boise State -5 at South Florida (-110): Why wait until Saturday to get the party started? Running back Ashton Jeanty (rightly) received most of the attention for Boise State’s 12-2 season last fall. Those shoes will be impossible to fill, but the Broncos bring a ton of experience back from their College Football Playoff team. 10 of 11 players who started on the offensive line are back, as is quarterback Maddux Madsen who threw for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns. The defense also returns seven starters from a unit that allowed only 3.8 yards per carry and 122.3 yards per game (31st in the FBS).
USF returns a lot as well, but the program starts from a shallower talent pool. The Bulls’ defense ranked 127th in passing yards and 81st in rushing yards allowed. Quarterback Byrum Brown was spectacular in 2023 but missed most of last season with an injury. USF is 2-18 straight up in its last 20 games as a home underdog. I expect this to be a high-scoring game that starts off close before Boise’s superior talent wins the day. Sportsbooks have given the Broncos the best odds to make the College Football Playoff among the Group of 5 teams. I think they make a strong opening case with a road victory against a likely bowl team.
Tulane -5.5 vs. Northwestern (-110): When quarterback Darian Mensah left New Orleans for Duke, it left third-year head coach Jon Sumrall with a massive question mark at the most important position in the game. Sumrall’s response to being raided was to go out and grab four quality quarterbacks in the portal, including BYU’s Jake Retzlaff and Ball State’s Kadin Semonza. All in all, Tulane has 60 new players on the roster, which should make it difficult for Northwestern to effectively prepare for this game.
Whoever the quarterback is, Sumrall puts a premium on pass protection. The Green Wave’s offensive line only allowed 18 sacks last year through 14 games.
We know that the Wildcats will start SMU transfer Preston Stone at quarterback. But it will take a herculean effort to improve Northwestern’s offense given the depths it reached last season. Averaging only 17.8 points per game (128th in the nation), David Braun’s program won only one road game all year. I don’t like their chances traveling to face a Group of 5 team looking to get on the College Football Playoff committee’s radar.
Tennessee -14 vs. Syracuse (-110): Fran Brown did an excellent job of using the transfer portal to build a competitive roster in his first year in upstate New York. Though Brown’s recruiting abilities make him a coach who can thrive in this new era of college football, it’s likely his team takes a step back this season.
Few players were as integral to their team’s success in 2024 as quarterback Kyle McCord. He threw for 466 more yards than Cam Ward, the top pick in the NFL Draft. Unfortunately for the Orange, McCord is gone along with nine other starters on offense. Still, I find Syracuse’s defense more concerning. This unit allowed over five yards per play on the ground last year and now must face Josh Heupel’s high-octane offense. Tennessee had the No. 9 rushing offense last year, while averaging 35.7 points per game, despite playing in the difficult SEC.
Though this game is being played in “neutral” Atlanta, it will feel like an indoor version of Neyland Stadium with all the Vols supporters. I think this game is a blowout and will only add to the negative narratives surrounding the ACC.
Oregon State -2 vs. California (-110): As I mentioned last week, I’m down on Cal this season given all the Bears lost on offense. It will be incredibly difficult to quickly replace the precise quarterback play of Fernando Mendoza, the explosive playmaking of running back Jadyn Ott, and the sure hands of tight end Jack Endries. True freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will get the start at quarterback and try to drown out the rowdy folks of Corvallis. That’s a tough situation to give a young athlete.
On the other sidelines, Oregon State will start Duke transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy, who is no stranger to ACC competition. He has the luxury of playing with the two most talented skill players on the 2024 Beavers’ roster in 1,000-yard rusher Anthony Hankerson and wide receiver Trent Walker. This should be an entertaining #PAC12AfterDark reunion, but I will give the short number with the Beavers playing at home.
TCU -3 at North Carolina (-110): Much has been written and said this offseason about North Carolina, so let me start with TCU. Sonny Dykes is a proven winner who led the Horned Frogs to a 9-4 record last season. He returns 13 starters, including quarterback Josh Hoover who threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year and completed 67% of his passes. TCU was No. 6 in passing yards and averaged 32.5 points per contest. The defense improved as the season went on, allowing 13 or fewer points in three of the last four games.
Meanwhile, North Carolina’s defense was a disaster, particularly in the secondary, allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt and conceding nearly 30 points per game. While the Tar Heels’ offense should be pretty good, I still see the defense as a major concern. In my expert opinion, this line is reduced because of Bill Belichick’s name recognition. Given the talent on the two rosters, this line would be closer to a touchdown if UNC had anyone else patrolling the sidelines. Despite Belichick’s legacy as a brilliant tactician in the NFL, he has no history of success at the college level. Take the Horned Frogs and enjoy rooting against the Tar Heels to end your holiday weekend.
Other leans: Ohio +15.5 at Rutgers, Nebraska -6 vs. Cincinnati, UTSA +24.5 at Texas A&M, USC -35 vs. Missouri State
Futures Bets: Conference Championships
I covered some of my season bets last week, but here are a few more to consider before games start in earnest.
Clemson to win the ACC Championship (+105): The conventional wisdom is that Clemson had a “down year” in 2024 with regular season losses to Louisville and South Carolina. Many people forget that the Tigers still won the ACC Championship. Most fan bases would divest themselves of limbs to have this count as a disappointing campaign.
Dabo Swinney has mostly eschewed the transfer portal, focusing on bringing in highly rated high school players who fit his system and developing them over time. This approach should pay off this season as Clemson returns more production (229 combined starts) than any team in the country. Quarterback Cade Klubnik returns for his third season (more on him later) with three of his top four receiving targets from 2024. The defense should make significant strides as well under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. The front seven should be the most disruptive in the league, anchored by tackle Peter Woods and end T.J. Parker.
Despite tough road trips to Atlanta and Louisville and a home game against SMU, Clemson should be favored in every game on the regular season slate. This is a legitimate National Championship contender and easily the class of the ACC. It’s a boring and chalky play, but still a value at plus money.
Toledo to make MAC Championship Game (-110): Speaking of returning production, Toledo brings back the highest percentage of any MAC school following an 8-5 season. Jason Candle also supplemented the roster by bringing in more starts from the transfer portal than anyone else in the conference.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason returns for his second season as the full-time starter after accounting for 31 total touchdowns for the Rockets last fall. The running game, which only managed 3.4 yards per carry last season, should be greatly improved with the arrival of Chip Trayanum from Kentucky. The defense has been consistently solid for years under coordinator Vince Kehres. Under his leadership, the Rockets have four straight seasons of allowing 5.0 yards per play or fewer.
Ohio and Buffalo should provide challenges to winning the conference, but I think Toledo has a great chance to at least make the title game. Outside of this weekend’s game at Kentucky, the Rockets could be favored in every game on the schedule for the remainder of the season. Exempting the shortened pandemic season, Candle has led his team to bowl eligibility every year. MACtion is known for chaos, but Toledo is as consistent as it gets.
Texas Tech to win the Big 12 Championship (+600): I already went on the record about Kansas State’s chances to win college football’s most wide-open conference. Those odds took a serious hit with a Week 0 loss to Iowa State in Ireland. The Red Raiders are my preferred back-up option to win the Big 12, especially at 6-to-1 odds. Texas Tech went on a spending spree to bring in top talent, landing 247’s second ranked (and second most expensive) portal class. On paper, this is easily Joey McGuire’s most talented team.
Going back to the days of Mike Leach, the offense has been strong in Lubbock. Last season was no different as Texas Tech finished fourth in the nation in points per game (36.4) and ran nearly 80 offensive plays per game. The issue was the defense, which finished outside the FBS top 100 in yards allowed per play. I expect a major upgrade on that side of the ball given the influx of talent and starting experience on the roster. Three difficult road trips to Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State will determine if the NIL experiment was successful.
Heisman Hopefuls
Entering the season, Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. This is a logical choice for Vegas given his pedigree and name-recognition; lots of public bettors will want to jump on the Manning bandwagon. It also helps that he is the leader of the top ranked team in the country, and most of the time, the Heisman is awarded to quarterbacks on contending teams.
However, I don’t like his value at only +500. A preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy has not won the award since Marcus Mariota in 2014. Instead of Manning, I recommend these players who have more value and potential payoff.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson Quarterback (+900): Klubnik has the second-best odds to win the award at most sportsbooks, but unlike Manning, he already has a demonstrated track record. Last season, he threw for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions. By comparison, Jayden Daniels’ threw for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions during his 2023 campaign to win the trophy. As the season progressed, offensive coordinator Garrett Riley increasingly used Klubnik on designed runs as well. He had double-digit carries in six of the last seven Tigers’ games. Clemson has the best odds to win its conference of any of the Power 4 schools and will almost certainly be in the College Football Playoff discussion. With marginal improvement in his third season working with Riley, Klubnik should be in the discussion at season’s end.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Wide Receiver (+1200): Non-quarterbacks have an uphill battle to garner attention from Heisman voters. That shouldn’t be a problem for Smith who is widely regarded to be the top wideout in the country and will be a top 10 NFL Draft pick whenever he decides to leave Columbus. During his freshman campaign, Smith caught 76 passes for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns. With Emeka Egbuka now playing on Sundays, Smith should get even more targets in the Ohio State offense. Smith finished fourth in the country in receiving yards, outgaining Heisman winner Travis Hunter. A better target might be Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, who won the award in 2021 with 1,641 receiving yards on 105 receptions. Those numbers are well within Smith’s range if he shows moderate improvement in his sophomore campaign.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M Quarterback (+4000): Even though Reed was not the full-time starter for Mike Elko to start the season, he won the job going away by season’s end. He is one of the most electric and dangerous quarterbacks in the country and can make big plays off-script. Even without a full season under center, Reed accumulated 547 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Those numbers should go up with more reps this season and with the support of one of the best offensive lines in the country. Reed still has room for growth as a passer, but he completed 61.3% of his passes and ranked 22nd in QBR. With transfer wideouts KC Conception and Mario Craver supplementing the skill positions, Reed will have a lot of big play options when in the pocket. Heisman voters love players capable of making highlight reel plays, and Reed certainly can manufacture “wow moments” whenever he touches the ball. With games against Notre Dame, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, and Texas, Reed will have plenty of eyes on him all season.
Enjoy the opening weekend of college football and happy betting!
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and contributor to The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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