Thanks to everyone for following along with my personal college football betting journey on The Sabre. After a slow start to the season, I finished strong with a 39-33-2 record on my weekly best selections.
When the vig is evenly distributed at -110, you need a 52.4% winning percentage to make money. Excluding the two “pushes” (ties), I had a 54.2% hit rate. That’s pretty good for a random dude who doesn’t have access to complicated statistical algorithms! The gold standard for “sharp” bettors is 55%, so I’m pleased with my individual game results.
The best gamblers are reflective people, willing to examine what worked, and learn from past mistakes. With that in mind, let’s review some of my early season win total bets and Heisman predictions evaluate what went right (and wrong) this season.
Virginia Season Review
Here is how I finished my season preview for Virginia:
“If forced to choose, I predict UVA will beat the 4.5-win total and get to 5-7. For that to happen, the Hoos will need to have a fast start to the year. The first five games of the schedule (Richmond, at Wake Forest, Maryland, at Coastal Carolina, Boston College) all are winnable games. However, road games at Clemson, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech seem out of reach for this team, and Virginia will be heavy underdogs in home contests versus Louisville and SMU. Even with moderate improvement, it is very difficult to imagine this program returning to a bowl game in 2024.”
Unfortunately, I was dead on with this prediction. Virginia did show some nominal improvement on both sides of the ball but struggled mightily down the stretch against tough competition. The Cavaliers’ offense finished outside the Top 100 in points scored per game (22.7) and 96th in points allowed (28.75). That’s not really a formula for success.
With a significant number of players graduating and the winter transfer portal opening on Dec. 9, UVA fans should prepare for a complete roster overhaul between now and August.
Season Win Total Review
Win Total Overs: 4-1
- Winners: 4 (SMU, Colorado, New Mexico, UCLA)
- Losers: 1 (Oklahoma State)
Win Total Unders: 4-1
- Winners: 4 (Louisville, Auburn, Arizona, Texas A&M)
- Losers: 1 (Syracuse)
I’ve written this column for four years and every season has been successful with win total bets. It really is the best bang for your buck when betting on college football. There will always be surprises; few experts predicted the meteoric rise of Indiana or Arizona State or the incomprehensible collapse of Florida State. Still, models such as KFord Ratings and SP+ are getting increasingly sophisticated and provide real value to the betting public. Something to keep in mind as next season approaches!
College Football Playoff Review
I placed three bets on College Football Playoff participants (and non-participants):
- Alabama to make the CFP (-125)
- Mississippi to miss the CFP (+105)
- Utah to make the CFP (+210)
My Utah prediction was a betting underdog, but I did not expect the Utes to flame out as spectacularly as they did this season. Considering the injuries that took place throughout the roster - Utah was down to its fifth string quarterback at the end of the year - it’s a minor miracle Kyle Whittingham was able to keep his team competitive.
With one week left in the season, I’m cautiously optimistic that my SEC predictions will cash out. Alabama was a clear winner of the committee’s most recent rankings, slotting in at No. 11 despite having three losses on the year. If SMU defeats Clemson in the ACC Championship, the Crimson Tide are almost certainly headed to the playoffs. Even if the Tigers pull the upset, Alabama likely has the inside track among the “bubble” teams. Betting markets seem to agree, currently showing an implied probability of nearly 80% that the Tide advance to the postseason.
Mississippi currently sits in the 13th spot in the rankings behind Alabama and Miami. Unless the committee makes a major reversal and listens to Lane Kiffin’s pleading, the Rebels will narrowly miss the College Football Playoffs.
Heisman Contenders
The Heisman Trophy winner is notoriously difficult to predict; Marcus Mariota was the last preseason favorite to win the award back in 2014. My preseason selections, Dillon Gabriel, Jalen Milroe, and Jalon Daniels, will fall short of winning college football’s greatest honor because of the ascendance of Colorado’s Travis Hunter. With an implied probability of 99%, Vegas sportsbooks have determined that this race is Hunter’s to lose.
For the record, if I was a Heisman voter, I would choose Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. He has been an unstoppable force this season and is the primary reason the Broncos are poised to earn a bid to the College Football Playoff. Jeanty assembled one of the most productive rushing seasons in the history of college football while facing seven or eight players in the defensive box on every snap. Even if you take away yards before contact, Jeanty’s 1,695 post-contact rushing yards would still lead the nation. He finished with more rushing yards than 105 FBS teams (including Virginia).
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
Comments
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!