Rivalries are the lifeblood of college football. Rivalry games cement legacies, make or break coaching regimes, and drive recruiting battles. Because fans place such an outsized emphasis on the results of these games, the failure of an entire season can be offset with a single victory. Similarly, even the most successful campaign can be soured by an end-of-season loss to a familiar foe.
Along with the beginning of March Madness, this is my favorite sports weekend of the year. Even as a long-suffering Virginia fan who has not witnessed much rivalry success in his lifetime, I love the infectious passion that fans bring to these games. Sports betting provides an opportunity to lean into the collective emotion of a fanbase you otherwise wouldn’t otherwise care about. Even the smallest bet can turn you into a rabid partisan for the Egg Bowl, the Iron Bowl, or The Game. So, embrace the pageantry, history, and, yes, hatred of rivalry weekend by placing a few bets on the games of your choosing, and enjoy the end of the college football regular season.
Virginia’s Week 14 Preview
- Virginia at VPISU -7, Under 48.5
Brent Pry team’s greatest strength this season has been its ferocious pass rush. Led by Antwaun Powell-Ryland (second in the FBS in sacks), Virginia Tech has 31 defensive sacks on the year. Protecting the quarterback has not been Virginia’s strength this season; only Hawai'i has allowed more sacks than the Cavaliers’ offensive line this year. These sacks have cost Virginia’s offense 279 yards and put the Hoos behind schedule when trying to convert first downs. Des Kitchings’ offense ranks 119th in the country on third down conversion rate and 102nd in overall success rate. Slowing down the Hokies’ pass rush will be a tall order especially considering the nagging injuries that have plagued the offensive line throughout the season.
If there is any reason for optimism among the Virginia fan base, it comes from the injury concerns out of Blacksburg at quarterback. Regular starter Kyron Drones did not play last week against Duke, and backup Collin Schlee was knocked out of the game. Though third-string quarterback Pop Watson played well in relief in Durham, he has only two career appearances and 25 passing attempts. While quarterback play is a major question mark for the Hokies, the ground game has continued to improve as the season has progressed. Despite being hampered by lingering injuries, Bhayshul Tuten has rushed for 1,035 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season. Virginia’s top priority on defense must be keeping Tuten in check and forcing whoever plays quarterback to win the game through the air.
If you step away from your feelings and approach this game logically, there’s little reason for optimism for Virginia fans. The history for the last quarter century has been one-sided, the offense is sputtering, and there are injuries at key positions on both sides of the ball. Virginia Tech has a more impactful defense, better rushing attack, and will be playing at home. If I was a neutral observer, I would bet heavily on the Hokies. Maybe Virginia can keep it close in a low-scoring game, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the offense right now. A 5-7 season with another loss to Tech will be difficult for Hoos’ fans to stomach, but that’s a conversation for another day. Hokies win 27-10.
Week 14 Best Bets
- Record last week: 3-1-1; Season record: 35-32-2
South Carolina +3 at Clemson (-110): Though Clemson has won eight of the last nine meetings of the “Palmetto Bowl”, South Carolina enters this game as one of the nation’s hottest teams. Winners of five straight games, Shane Beamer’s club has excelled all season at causing havoc in opposing backfields. The Gamecocks’ defense has racked up 39 sacks on the season (3rd in the FBS) and ranks 8th nationally on EPA per dropback. However, South Carolina has improved on offense as well as the season has progressed, thanks in large part to the development of quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Over the last three games, Sellers has 10 passing touchdowns and has completed over 75% of his passes, averaging 11.66 yards per attempt.
While I don’t want to fall into the trap of recency bias, I was concerned watching Clemson’s defense surrender a season-high 288 rushing yards to the Citadel last weekend. The three ACC games that preceded this win were not inspiring from an offensive output either, averaging only 22 points in a home loss to Louisville and two narrow road victories at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. This is the first time in more than a decade that both teams are ranked entering the game, and there is the outside possibility that the winner can sneak into the College Football Playoff if other teams are upset. I’ll be cranking Darude and hoping that the Gamecocks can orchestrate an upset victory.
Tennessee -11 at Vanderbilt (-110): Traveling to Nashville has been considerably more perilous for teams this season than in the recent past. Just ask Alabama, who will likely be left out of the CFP because of an early October stunning defeat to the ‘Dores. Quarterback Diego Paiva is one of the most fun players to watch in college football, a powder keg of emotion capable of playing up (or down) to any opponent. Still, if you had told me before the season that Tennessee would only lay 11 points in their season finale, I would have placed a massive futures bet.
Josh Heupel is known for his fast-paced offensive style, but this year’s team has a more smashmouth quality to it on both sides of the ball. The Volunteers have the ninth ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 227.5 yards on the ground per game. Highly touted freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has steadily improved throughout the season and has not thrown an interception in five games. However, it has been the defense that has propelled Tennessee to the brink of a College Football Playoff bid. The Vols’ defense has the best success rate on all defensive plays and ranks sixth in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per game (98.8). Though this game will be played at FirstBank Stadium, you should expect to see a healthy dose of orange in attendance. I expect Tennessee to keep Paiva at bay and secure their spot in the playoff.
Louisville -3.5 at Kentucky (-110): Louisville will look to break a five-game winning streak from their hated rivals in Lexington. It has been a weird second half of the season for the Cardinals with narrow losses to Miami and Stanford (what?), an improbable come-from-behind win at Boston College, and two strong wins against Clemson and Pittsburgh. Despite the uneven results, the offense has remained consistently good. Louisville ranks 17th in the FBS averaging 36.2 points per game and has not scored fewer than 24 points in any game this season. Playing in his sixth season of college football, quarterback Tyler Shough is playing the best football of his career, already amassing more than 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns.
Kentucky has not played consistent offense all season. After throwing interceptions in five straight games and starting the Texas matchup with only three completions in the first half, quarterback Brock Vandagriff was benched in favor of true freshman Cutter Boley. Though Boley showed promise against the Longhorns, winning a rivalry game is a lot to ask of a freshman in his first career start. The Wildcats have not been particularly skilled on defense either with the 110th ranked defensive success rate and a front seven that allows an average of 144 rushing yards per game. Despite a surprising victory over Mississippi and a close call against Georgia, I have a hard time seeing Kentucky keep up on the scoreboard with Louisville.
Duke -4 at Wake Forest (-110): This rivalry game may not have the national appeal of the others played on Saturday, but these Tobacco Road schools have a storied history that dates back to 1893. These teams have met 101 previous times, but this might be the worst defense Wake Forest brings into the game. The Demon Deacons rank 133rd in overall defensive success rate and last in the FBS with success rate on dropback situations. Only Kent State has surrendered more first downs to opposing offenses than Wake Forest has on the season. Dave Clawson’s program has lost three straight games and has not beaten an FBS program by more than four points all year.
Meanwhile, Manny Diaz has put together a surprising eight-win campaign in his first season in Durham. Diaz is known for defensive prowess, and this year’s Duke team is no different. The Blue Devils’ front seven ranks fifth in the FBS with 36 sacks on the season. The offense has been effective as well, especially in the passing game. Quarterback Maalik Murphy just broke Duke’s single-season passing touchdown record and has thrown 11 touchdown passes in his last four games. Considering the state of Wake Forest’s secondary, Murphy should have a second Thanksgiving feast on Saturday.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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