Virginia tackle Jahmeer Carter will wrap up his Scott Stadium career this weekend. ~ Photo by Kris Wright/TheSabre.com
After the long grind of summer workouts, preseason practices, and two months of regular season games, college football season enters its final weeks. For the Virginia football team, that means two games remain with the home finale against SMU on deck at Scott Stadium on Saturday at noon.
The Mustangs enter the matchup currently ranked No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff standings. They’ve reached 9-1 with the season’s only loss coming to BYU, who sits at No. 14 in those playoff rankings. In the ACC, SMU owns wins against Florida State, Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Boston College.
So what does the matchup look like for Virginia and Southern Methodist? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.
3 Players To Watch
SMU Running Back Brashard Smith (5'10", 196), No. 1: Smith is one of just seven Football Bowl Subdivision players with 1,000+ yards rushing and 200+ yards receiving. He cleared the 1K plateau last week against Boston College. He enters this game with 1,026 rushing yards, 203 receiving yards, and 243 kickoff return yards. He has 12 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns.
SMU Defensive End Elijah Roberts (6'4, 295), No. 5: A graduate student, Roberts has put together back-to-back strong seasons for the Mustangs. He started 14 games in 2023 and posted 10 sacks on the season. While that number has dropped to 3 sacks this season, he’s still getting near the quarterback. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks sixth in the FBS with 46 total pressures, including 36 QB hurries (that part alone ranks No. 3 nationally).
Virginia safety Jonas Sanker (6’1”, 210), No. 20: The senior has picked up the ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors four times this season, the first UVA defender to receive an ACC weekly honor four times in one season. That includes the last two weeks when he posted 18 tackles with 4 tackles for loss, an interception, a fumble recovery, and a blocked field goal in games against Pitt and Notre Dame. For the season, Sanker has 82 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 interception.
3 Trends To Know
Mustangs Currently Riding 9-Game Road Winning Streak: SMU hasn’t lost a road game in more than a year. Starting with a win at East Carolina on Oct. 12, 2023, the program has ripped off nine straight road victories. This season, those wins came at Nevada (29-24), Louisville (34-27), Stanford (40-10), and Duke (28-27 in OT). Three of those games came down to one score.
UVA Has 4 Red Zone Touchdowns In Last 2 Games: Virginia scored a pair of touchdowns inside the red zone against both Pitt and Notre Dame, all coming from runs (1, 3, 18, and 2 yards respectively). That means the Hoos have scored a TD in 4 of their last 5 red zone possessions. That’s the good news. The bad news: UVA still ranks 131st nationally in red zone touchdown percentage for the season and last (134th) in that same stat in home games only.
Virginia Has Scored A Fourth Quarter Touchdown In 7 of 9 FBS Games This Season: The Cavaliers scored their only two touchdowns in the fourth quarter last week at Notre Dame. That added to a trend this season as the Hoos have at least one fourth quarter touchdown in 7 FBS games for 2024. UVA has outscored its opponents 84-46 in the fourth quarter this season.
3 Virginia Predictions
Tony Muskett (6’2”, 213) Starts At Quarterback, Posts Big Day: After Anthony Colandrea threw 3 interceptions at Notre Dame, Tony Muskett ran the offense in the second half and led the team to 2 touchdowns. Muskett has been steady in limited backup duty this season with 367 yards on 26-40 passing (65.0%) with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. While coach Tony Elliott said Tuesday that Colandrea would start if the game was that day, I think the Hoos make the switch Saturday. Either way, SMU ranks 109th nationally in pass defense so UVA’s QBs will have some opportunities.
Chico Bennett Jr. (6’4”, 256) Posts 2 Sacks: While Bennett has been unable to recapture his 2022 magic when he had 7 sacks over the last two seasons, I think Senior Day brings out a big performance. Bennett has 1 sack this season, way back against Wake Forest, but he’ll get 2 Saturday as a Scott Stadium swan song. It won’t be easy - the Mustangs have allowed just 11 sacks, which ranks second in the ACC.
Malachi Fields (6’4”, 220) Adds A Touchdown: With 4 catches for 81 yards against the Irish, Fields entered the top 10 in career receiving yards (1,787) and top 15 in career receptions (123) at UVA. He enters this game with 49 catches for 746 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. Only one of those scores came at home (against Boston College), but he’ll get back to the Scott Stadium end zone this week.
3 Keys To The Game
Steady With The Run: SMU’s defense has been stingy against the run this season, ranking No. 6 nationally and No. 1 in the ACC by allowing just 99.00 rushing yards per game. The Mustangs don’t necessarily blow things up in the backfield all the time, though. With 59 tackles for loss, they’re tied for 57th nationally in that category. Coach Elliott calls them ‘dirty runs’ but UVA will need to be steady in generating positive yards on the running plays called this weekend so the offense can stay close to on schedule in order to try to test the SMU pass defense.
Keep The Score Down: Southern Methodist has been really successful under Rhett Lashlee when hitting the 30-point mark. Over his three seasons in charge, the Mustangs have a 24-1 record when scoring at least 30 points - that includes 22 straight games. The Virginia defense held both Pittsburgh and Notre Dame under their season scoring averages and the Hoos will likely need to do that again to win on Senior Day. SMU ranks No. 6 nationally at 39.9 points per game.
Turnovers: As always, this could be a key in any week, but after the Hoos committed 5 turnovers at Notre Dame to erase any hopes of an upset, it has to make the list this week. Plus, SMU is tied for No. 10 nationally with 20 takeaways this season. The Mustangs have forced a turnover in 18 of the last 20 games and they 5 in a win this season against TCU. They have a +70 edge in points off turnovers this season. With 17 lost turnovers this season, UVA is tied for 99th nationally in that stat.
3 Virginia Picks
Offensive Player Of The Game: Xavier Brown (5’9”, 196) comes through with 90+ yards combined for receiving and passing. Fellow running back Kobe Pace (5’10”, 215) chips in 35+ too.
Defensive Player Of The Game: Jahmeer Carter (6’2”, 309) closes out his time at Scott Stadium with 4+ tackles and 1 extra stat (sack, forced fumble, pass defended/batted down).
Winner: Throughout this season, Virginia has talked about being “different” than past years and finding a way to a better campaign. The Hoos have improved their win total from 2022 and 2023, but they say they want more than the 5 wins on the board. This is a chance to prove it, even if it is a tall order. Can they generate their own energy and motivation with Scott Stadium well below capacity these days? UVA finds a way, 30-27. (Season to date: 6-4)
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