The Virginia football team continued its success after bye weeks in the Tony Elliott era with a 24-19 upset win at Pittsburgh last week. The Hoos don’t get the benefit of the extra preparation and rest for another ranked road test this week, though. They travel to Notre Dame on Saturday.
The Irish enter the matchup currently ranked No. 8 in the latest College Football Playoff standings. They’ve reeled off seven straight wins and most have not been particularly close - all but one have come by at least 18 points, including a 52-3 romp against Florida State last week. Notre Dame has won all four meetings in the series history with UVA.
So what does the matchup look like for Virginia and Notre Dame? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.
3 Players To Watch
Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts (6'0", 203), No. 0: One of the nation's best players in the secondary, Watts won the Nagurski Award in 2023 and was a unanimous All-American. He has 10 career interceptions, which is tied for 12th all-time for the Irish. That includes 3 interceptions this season. He has 34 tackles, 10 total passes defended, and a forced fumble this season as well. Notre Dame has only played one close game recently, a 31-24 win against Louisville, and Watts posted an interception along with the game-sealing pass breakup in that contest.
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (6'4, 216), No. 13: A transfer from Duke, Leonard is putting together a strong season with ND. He has posted 1,575 passing yards on 145-225 passing (64.4%) for 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. But he's also a big rushing threat with 96 carries for 609 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those rushing TDs rank 10th in the nation and are tied for third among all quarterbacks. His 67.7 rushing yards per game lead all Power 4 quarterbacks and at 6.34 yards per carry, he's 15th among all FBS level players.
Virginia running back Xavier Brown (5’9”, 196), No. 0: The junior logged a career-high 15 carries at Pittsburgh, marking just the second time in his career that he’s been in double digits (12 carries, 45 yards vs. Georgia Tech in 2022). He recorded 68 rushing yards and 1 touchdown against the Panthers alongside 2 catches for 28 yards and another score. If Brown’s touches are going up, will he continue to produce at a higher rate too?
3 Trends To Know
Virginia Owns 3 Road Wins With 2 More Chances: UVA has grabbed 3 road wins this season. The Hoos defeated Wake Forest 31-30 and Coastal Carolina 43-24 back in September to go with last week’s victory at Pittsburgh. The three road wins are the most by Virginia since 2011. The Cavaliers have two road games left - this week’s test at Notre Dame and the finale at Virginia Tech.
UVA’s Defense Taking Passes Away: Virginia has posted at least 1 Interception in 5 of its last 6 games. That stretch started at Coastal Carolina with a pick, while the UNC loss is the only contest without one of late. The Hoos made 2 interceptions against Boston College, 1 against Louisville, 1 against Clemson, and 2 against Pittsburgh during the stretch. While UVA is still -1 on the season in turnover margin, those recent interceptions have helped offset some of the offense’s own turnovers.
Love the end zone. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love has scored a rushing touchdown in all nine games this season. That's closing in on the school record of 11 straight games with a rushing TD. He also has a receiving touchdown this season.
3 Virginia Predictions
Kam Robinson (6’2”, 234) Posts 5+ tackles: While Robinson appears to be nursing some bumps and bruises, he’s been fairly consistent for the Hoos on defense. The linebacker has at least 5 tackles in 6 of 8 games this season. He had a string of three straight games with 8 tackles against BC, Louisville, and Clemson. Robinson finished with 6 tackles last week at Pittsburgh.
Andre Greene Jr. (6’2”, 202) Scores His First UVA Touchdown: Greene, a transfer from North Carolina, has started to gain some traction in the offense recently. He has at least 1 catch in 4 of the last 5 games, including 3 receptions for a new career-high 30 yards at Pittsburgh. Greene has 9 catches for 74 yards on the season with all of that production coming since Oct. 1.
Daniel Sparks (6’6”, 214) Launches A 50+ Yard Punt: Entering the Notre Dame game, Sparks ranks 29th nationally with a 44.15 average on punts this season. He helps his average with some long kicks. He’s had at least one 50+ yard punt in every game this season - Richmond (56), Wake Forest (59), Maryland (53), Coastal Carolina (60), Boston College (62), Louisville (56), Clemson (53), North Carolina (60), and Pittsburgh (66).
3 Keys To The Game
Counter Notre Dame’s Pass Defense: The Irish enter this contest ranked No. 2 nationally in pass defense at 148.6 pass yards allowed per game, No. 16 nationally (tie) with 12 interceptions, and No. 18 nationally (tie) in sacks per game with 2.89. That’s a tall order for a Virginia offense that’s allowed 16 sacks the last two outings and for quarterback Anthony Colandrea who has had fewer than 160 passing yards in 4 of his last 6 games. That means UVA needs a plan to counter some of that tough defense - move the pocket, mix the pass types and zones, and make sure to run the ball well to create better passing situations.
Defense Holds In Red Zone: For Virginia to try to pull off a second road upset in a row, the defense is going to have to play well again after holding Pitt to half of its season scoring average last week. That probably means coming up with some drives where the defense holds Notre Dame to a field goal try instead of a touchdown. The challenge: the Irish rank No. 8 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage this season, scoring TDs on 78.79% of their possessions in that area of the field.
Make A Changing Play: The Hoos have 5 wins this season. At Wake, a key fumble recovery sealed the win. Against BC, a fumble return for touchdown helped get to victory lane. At Pittsburgh, Jonas Sanker blocked a field goal and made an interception to set up a third quarter rally. UVA will likely need a game-changing play to have any chances of winning this week.
3 Virginia Picks
Offensive Player Of The Game: Receiver Malachi Fields (6’4”, 220) has been trending to lower reception totals of late (3 or fewer catches in 3 straight games), but he bounces back this week with 5+ catches and at least 60 yards.
Defensive Player Of The Game: While safety Jonas Sanker (6’1”, 210) could always be the pick in this slot week to week, let’s go with defensive end Kam Butler (6’3”, 256). The senior posts 4+ tackles and at least 1 QB sack.
Winner: When you sift through stats for this game, it’s easy to see why Notre Dame is a heavy favorite. It’s much harder to find a path to winning for Virginia. Irish 49, Hoos 20. (Season to date: 5-4)
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