Predictions and betting guide, best bets

On Tuesday evening, we got our first look at the projected field for the new and expanded College Football Playoff. Though it featured a couple surprises - why is undefeated Indiana ranked two spots lower than Penn State? - most of the teams you would expect to be in the field were represented.

Opponents of the move to a larger field argued that it would devalue regular season games. While that may have seemed true earlier in the fall, now that we approach the final weeks of the regular season, there are considerably more games with playoff implications. With this in mind, I’ve focused my attention on these critical, must-watch games for my bets this week.

But first, what about Virginia?

Virginia’s Week 11 Preview

  • Virginia at Pittsburgh -7, Under 57
Pittsburgh’s only realistic path to making the College Football Playoff is by winning the ACC Championship. Those odds took a significant hit last week with a blowout loss at Southern Methodist. It was the first time all season that the Panthers looked overmatched.

After struggling on offense in 2023, Pat Narduzzi brought in Kade Bell from Western Carolina as his offensive coordinator. As the architect of one of the FCS’ best offenses during his time in Cullowhee, Bell has turned Pittsburgh into an offensive juggernaut and allowed quarterback Eli Holstein to shine as one of the country’s best freshmen. The Panthers rank 10th in the FBS in points per game (38.9) and 24th in total offense (444.8 yards per game).

The defense has been solid as well, particularly against the run. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in rushing yards allowed per game (102.2) and success rate on rushing downs (35.3%). Virginia will have its work cut out for it when trying to gain yards on the ground and may have to air it out to keep up with Pitt on the scoreboard.

The biggest question in this game is whether the offensive line can give Anthony Colandrea enough time to make the necessary passes. The bye week should provide an opportunity to get healthy and improve upon the dreadful 10 sacks allowed against North Carolina. Colandrea, perhaps because of a lack of time in the pocket, has struggled during the Cavaliers’ three-game losing streak. He has been sacked 16 times over the last three games and ranks 93rd among all FBS quarterbacks with QBR on the season.

Here's a question I have been thinking about since the UNC loss: What does Virginia do especially well? There have been great individual performances throughout the season, but it is tough to find any facet of the game where the Cavaliers excel relative to their competition. To accentuate this point, UVA ranks 95th in the FBS in net points per drive accounting for both offensive and defensive performance. Pittsburgh ranks 12th. That is too big of a gap to expect the Cavaliers to overcome especially when playing on the road. Panthers win 34-17.

Week 11 Best Bets

  • Record last week: 4-1; Season record: 25-28-1
Alabama -2.5 at LSU (-110): For the first time in 25 years, this game will be played without Les Miles or Nick Saban on the sidelines. It likely represents a must-win game for both teams to stay in the playoff hunt. Despite the electric and challenging environment that Tiger Stadium provides, I think Alabama has a statistical edge.

LSU has relied heavily on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s arm to propel the offense because the ground game has struggled. In recent weeks, the weight of expectations on Nussmeier has shown through. He’s thrown 7 interceptions in his last four games, including 2 horrendous second half picks that completely flipped momentum of the matchup at Texas A&M. Thanks to a dynamic pass rush and a shutdown secondary, Alabama has one of the best defenses in college football. The Crimson Tide rank first in success rate on designed dropbacks and have the 9th best stop rate in the FBS.

Compare that to the Tigers’ defense, which is 96th in success rates on passing downs and 79th in allowing conversions on third downs. Alabama’s defense should carry the day, and quarterback Jalen Milroe should have one of his best performances of the season.

Miami -10 at Georgia Tech (-120): Miami should be plenty motivated for this one after inexplicably fumbling the game away last year in Coral Gables. Even though the Hurricanes have navigated several close calls this year, the exceptional play of quarterback Cameron Ward has been decisive. Ward, one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy, ranks first in QBR and has accounted for 32 touchdowns on the season. Miami is near the top of the list of every statistical offensive category, including points per game (1st), first downs gained (1st), third-down conversions (1st), and passing yards per game (3rd).

To hang around with Miami, you need an elite secondary. That is not Georgia Tech’s strength. The Yellow Jackets rank 105th in success rate on passing downs and allow an average of 11.3 yards per completion. Additionally, injuries have sidelined Georgia Tech’s two most important players - quarterback Haynes King and linebacker Kyle Efford - the last two weeks and neither are guaranteed to play on Saturday. I never like laying double digit points against a Brent Key-coached team, but I think the talent disparity warrants it in this case.

Michigan +14.5 at Indiana (-110): Even the most bullish fans of Indiana couldn’t have predicted this season. Curt Cignetti’s team has won all nine games by at least 2 touchdowns with the best point differential in the FBS. The Hoosiers have also covered in eight of their nine games and find themselves favored for the first time against Michigan since 1968. Given this momentum, it seems like a bad idea to pick a road team with offensive issues and poor quarterback play. Still, I’m going to take the points here and hope that Michigan’s defense can keep it close.

Though Michigan has taken a significant step back this year, this is a program that has beaten IU in 42 of the last 44 games. The Hoosiers have played a very favorable schedule this season (103rd in difficulty according to ESPN) with opponents having a 34-45 combined record. Eventually, Indiana has to play in a close game ... right?

Army -5 at North Texas (-110): Despite an 8-0 start to the season, Army finds itself as the 25th ranked team in the CFP standings. However, with an automatic bid available for the highest ranked “Group of Five” team, the Black Knights simply need to keep winning and hope that Boise State trips up in one of its remaining games.

Jeff Monken’s teams are always known for their run-heavy offense, but this is his most effective team since taking over at West Point. Army leads the nation with 340.1 rushing yards per game and averages 37.9 points per game. Quarterback Bryson Daily, who missed last week’s rivalry game against Air Force with an injury but may play this week, is tied for second in the country with 19 rushing touchdowns. He should find plenty of room to run against a Mean Green defense that ranks outside the top 100 in rushing defense.

North Texas does have one of the country’s most potent offenses, averaging 371.6 passing yards per game behind the arm of quarterback Chandler Morris. It figures to be a high-scoring game with an interesting contrast of offensive styles. However, Army has the better defense. UNT ranks near the bottom of the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 36.9 points per game. By contrast, Army has held five different opponents this season to 10 points or fewer. Ultimately, I think Daily and the Black Knights get the victory and continue their perfect season.

Utah +4 vs. BYU (-110): I previewed this game on the Preferred Walk-Ons Podcast earlier this week and declared it to be the “Smelly Line of the Year.” Compared to preseason expectations, Utah has been one of the most disappointing programs in the country outside of the greater Tallahassee area. The offense has struggled with and without quarterback Cameron Rising in the line-up. In the current four-game losing streak, Utah has averaged only 12.5 points per game and has 8 turnovers. With the season in the toilet and two inexperienced quarterbacks getting reps in practice, Kyle Whittingham must prepare his team for an undefeated BYU squad with the No. 9 ranking in the CFP standings.

And yet, somehow the Cougars are only 4-point favorites? It defies belief. When a line doesn’t make logical sense, I’m immediately drawn to it. Utah does have an elite defense that ranks 11th in success rate and 13th in stop rate. The Utes have also won four out of the last five in the series. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the most difficult places to play in the country; we’re about to find out if BYU is truly deserving of the playoff hype.

Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.