Predictions and betting guide, best bets

At the halfway point in the season, it feels like the race for the National Championship is more open than it has ever been.

With the possible exception of Texas, every team at the top of the rankings has looked vulnerable at times this season. Expected contenders like Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia all find themselves with critical high-profile games this weekend to avoid getting a second loss before the end of October. Emergent dark horses like Indiana and BYU have difficult tests to keep their undefeated streaks alive.

Given the stakes, it should be a fascinating Saturday of college football with results that reverberate throughout the remainder of the season. Let’s take a look at the Virginia-Clemson game and then the college football best bets for Week 8.

Virginia’s Week 8 Preview

  • Virginia +21 at Clemson, Over 57.5
After letting a very winnable game against Louisville slip away, Virginia now faces its toughest game of the season. The college football world laughed at Dabo Swinney and his refusal to use the transfer portal following an opening week blowout loss to Georgia. However, since that humiliating defeat, few teams in the country have looked as dominant as Clemson. Since Week 2, the Tigers have scored nearly 49 points per game with an average margin of victory of 29.4 points.

Offensive coordinator Garrett Riley has the Clemson offensive humming right now, in large part because of how balanced it is. Excluding defensive penalties, of the 135 first downs gained by the Tigers’ offense, 64 have come on the ground and 71 through the air. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has finally lived up to his 5-star recruiting ranking. Klubnik has a 17-2 touchdown to interception ratio, a QBR that ranks fifth in the FBS, and 4 rushing touchdowns as well. Running back Phil Mafah is one of the most talented backs in the conference, gaining more than 100 yards in four of six games this year while averaging 6.9 yards per carry.

It seems unlikely that Virginia will be able to completely subdue the nation’s 10th ranked offense in yards gained. It may require a “bend but don’t break” approach that concedes yardage, but ultimately holds Clemson to field goals rather than explosive touchdowns.

The competitiveness of this game will come down to whether the Des Kitchings offense can also put points on the board. Clemson has an ordinary defense that allows an average of 348.3 yards per game. Between Virginia’s 260.2 passing yards per game and the improved running game in recent weeks, I think there will be opportunities to move the ball. However, red zone efficiency has been a major problem for UVA this season. In 27 trips inside the red zone, the Cavaliers have only scored 11 touchdowns and rank 103rd nationally in scoring percentage. The inability to effectively convert on these opportunities has cost Virginia two games already this season and would be catastrophic in a contest against a superior offense.

Ultimately, I think Clemson has too much firepower for UVA to keep up. Still, I think the Hoos can keep it respectable compared to the Vegas line. Given Swinney’s respect and admiration for what Tony Elliott accomplished during his time in Death Valley, I’m hoping he won’t be anxious to run up the score. Tigers win 40-20.

Week 8 Best Bets

  • Record last week: 1-4; Season record: 15-23
Alabama at Tennessee Under 57 Total Points (-110): In recent years, “The Third Saturday in October” rivalry between these SEC schools has produced offensive fireworks. Seven of the last eight matchups have produced at least 50 total points. However, I expect this year’s game to be relatively low scoring given the caliber of the defenses involved.

Tennessee has the nation’s third best stop rate and the fourth best scoring defense, allowing only 0.83 points per drive and 10.7 points per game. On the other sideline, Alabama ranks seventh in overall defensive success rate and second in success rate on dropback situations. The Volunteers’ offense has struggled in recent weeks, averaging only 20.7 points over the last three games against defenses inferior to the Crimson Tide’s. I think this game will look more like a classic SEC game and I will be surprised if either team gets into the 30s.

Miami -5 at Louisville (-110): It’s likely that this pick is influenced by the recency bias of having watched Louisville play my team last week. Still, the Cardinals were lucky to get out of Charlottesville with a win. UVA outgained Louisville, and if not for poor red zone execution, a disastrous punt, and questionable officiating, the Cavaliers would have handed their ACC “rivals” a second consecutive loss.

Jeff Brohm’s offense is heavily reliant on big chunk plays and tends to stagnate when it can’t generate them. Though the Cardinals have a strong run defense, in passing situations, the defense allows successful plays on nearly 45% of dropbacks (107th in the FBS).

You know who is good in dropback situations? Miami quarterback Cam Ward, one of the leading contenders for the Heisman Trophy. Ward leads the nation in passing yards per game (369.8) and ranks third in QBR. His top wideout, Xavier Restrepo, has more receiving yards than anyone in the conference. Averaging nearly 48 points per game, the Hurricanes have the top scoring offense in the country and should be bolstered by the return of star left tackle Jalen Rivers from injury this week. Coming off a bye week, Miami has too much firepower and will add to its 5-2 all-time record in Derby City.

Nebraska +7 at Indiana (-120): The surprising emergence of Indiana as a 6-0 team is one of the best stories in college football. Curt Cignetti’s team has been dominant, winning every game by at least 14 points and averaging 47.5 points per game (2nd in the FBS). However, none of Indiana’s games have been against quality opponents; a home win against Maryland might be the Hoosiers' most impressive victory. A home win against Nebraska would solidify their status as a true Big 10 contender.

The Cornhuskers have started the season 5-1 with the only loss coming in overtime to a ranked Illinois squad. A talented defensive front should challenge Indiana’s up-tempo offense. Nebraska ranks 12th in net points allowed per drive and is particularly skilled in limiting opposing rushing attacks. Matt Rhule’s team is in the top 25 in first downs allowed, rushing yards allowed, and interceptions forced. Nebraska has played in a lot of one-score games in recent years with limited success. I expect this to be another close one, so I will take the points.

LSU -2.5 at Arkansas (-110): The short line of this game represents the circumstances of this game more than the talent level of the two teams. LSU is in a classic letdown spot after a dramatic home victory over Mississippi in overtime. Arkansas is coming off a bye after upsetting Tennessee in Fayetteville on Oct. 5.

While I do see this as a close game, I think the Tigers have a significant advantage. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has played well in his first season as the full-time starter in Baton Rouge. With a 3-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio and the 13th ranked QBR in the FBS, Nussmeier has thrown for at least 300 yards in five of six games this season. I expect the Razorbacks to struggle against football’s sixth ranked passing attack. Arkansas’ secondary has been susceptible to allowing big plays this season, conceding 11.83 yards per completion and 215 yards per game. Opposing teams have a 42.3% success rate on passing downs against Arkansas, which ranks 85th overall. This should be a high scoring game and Taylen Green is capable of making big plays, but I believe that LSU ultimately has more weapons. It’s a game Brian Kelly and the Tigers must win if they want to remain in the CFP picture.

Oregon State +7 vs. UNLV (-110): If UNLV is going to remain a serious contender for the Group of Five slot in the College Football Playoff, it will need to win out. The next two weeks are most challenging with a road trip to Corvallis this weekend and then a home matchup against Boise State next Friday.

While the Rebels offense has remained potent despite the highly publicized redshirting of starting quarterback Matthew Sluka, I have serious concerns about the defense. After conceding 492 yards to Syracuse in an overtime loss, UNLV allowed 584 yards to Utah State the following week. Quarterback Spencer Petras, known for his ineffectual play at Iowa, threw for 461 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Aggies.

Oregon State should be able to move the ball in this game as well. The Beavers have the nation’s No. 6 rushing offense, averaging 256 yards on the ground per game. Anthony Hankerson has been one of the most productive tailbacks in the country, scoring 12 touchdowns and rushing for 639 yards this season. He also averages over 3 yards per carry after initial contact. If Oregon State can avoid the turnovers that cost it last week’s game against Nevada, the Beavers should be able to keep this one close or win outright.

Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.