Virginia Football Vs. Clemson: 3 Players, Trends, Predictions, Keys, And Picks

For the first time this season, the Virginia football team stumbled against an ACC opponent as Louisville took a 24-20 win out of Charlottesville. Now the Hoos must try to bounce back from that loss as the second half of the schedule begins with UVA at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the ACC.

It’s not an ideal bounce-back spot, though. Virginia must travel to Clemson on Saturday for a noon game against the current leader in the league standings. The Tigers are one of four teams still unbeaten in ACC play along with Miami, Pittsburgh, and SMU. They’ve also won 7 of the last 9 ACC Championships. Oh, Clemson also owns a 40-8-1 all-time advantage in the series.

Of course, UVA coach Tony Elliott is familiar with that tradition. He played at Clemson and spent 11 years there on the coaching staff before accepting the head coach job at Virginia. This marks the first trip back and the first meeting between the teams since he made that move so the head-to-head matchup with mentor Dabo Swinney has drawn a lot of attention during the week.

Elliott downplayed that angle, saying other than a little pregame pleasantries, this is about two teams battling it out.

“There’s so much that goes into preparing for a game that’s really all I’ve been focused on,” Elliott said. “And then I’ve also been mindful, too, that I did not want this game to be about me. And I told the players that this ain’t about me. This is about you guys going down there and playing your best game. And my job is to is to prepare you.”

So what does the matchup look like for Virginia and Clemson? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.

3 Players To Watch

Clemson running back Phil Mafah (6’1”, 230), No. 7: The graduate student came into the season with more than 1,700 career yards and 20 touchdowns and he’s only added to the total since. With 604 rushing yards, Mafah is on pace for his best season to date and he’s got 4 touchdowns on the books too. Mafah has 100+ rushing yards in 4 of 6 games this season. Given that Louisville’s Isaac Brown just ripped off 146 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns, this feels like another big test for the Virginia defense, particularly without safety Antonio Clary as he is likely out again this week with a knee injury.

Clemson linebacker Barrett Carter (6’1”, 230), No. 0: A 2022 All-American and an All-ACC selection last season, Carter has been a mainstay for the Clemson defense in recent seasons. He causes problems for opponents as a tackle machine (186 and counting, including 35 this year), a threat to make plays in the backfield (28 tackles for loss with 12 sacks in his career), and as someone capable of forcing turnovers (3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles in his career). In last season’s Gator Bowl win against Kentucky, for example, he had 5 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, and half a sack. He has a sack in three straight games.

Virginia guard Noah Josey (6’5”, 318), No. 77: One of UVA’s most experienced offensive linemen, Josey put together a solid first half of the season. In addition to being the ACC Offensive Lineman of the Week (9/23), he has posted his best overall offense grade in the Pro Football Focus data so far. He’s currently No. 31 in pass blocking in the ACC among linemen too. Given that Clemson’s monster defensive line has a lot of interior power in Payton Page (6’4”, 310), DeMonte Capehart (6’5”, 315), Peter Woods (6’3”, 315), and others, Josey and company have a big challenge this week.

3 Trends To Know

Double-Digit Victories: Given the world of conference realignment, divisions at one point, and all of that, these two teams don’t meet as often as in the past. This is the first matchup since 2020 and only the third regular season game since 2010. The Tigers have won five straight in the series and all have come by double digits. That includes three straight lopsided wins: 59-10 in 2013, 62-17 in the 2019 ACC Championship Game, and 41-23 in 2020 when UVA scored in the final two minutes to make the score look a little nicer. Clemson is a 21-point favorite in he early betting lines.

Clemson Can Be Explosive: The Tigers have scored 28 points in a single quarter in 3 of their last 5 games. That includes last week against Wake Forest. They’ve put up 17+ in seven different quarters and 10+ in 12 different quarters this season. Part of that success comes from big scoring plays as the offense has 13 touchdowns this season of 25 yards or more. That’s almost three times as many as UVA, which has 5.

Virginia Starts Slow Against Power 4 Teams So Far: In four games against power conference teams this season (Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, and Louisville), Virginia has scored 13 points combined in the first quarter. That includes three games with either a field goal (Wake and Maryland) or a goose egg (BC) in the first 15 minutes. In the last two ACC games against the Cards and Eagles, both at home, UVA went into halftime with 7 or fewer points on the board. Do that against Clemson and the game might already be over on the scoreboard.

3 Virginia Predictions

UVA holds Clemson under 500 yards of offense: Clemson has put up 500+ yards in back-to-back games. The last time the Tigers hit that mark in three straight contests came in 2019 (8 straight). The Cavaliers currently rank 91st nationally in total defense by allowing 383.8 yards per game so this might be a tough number to reach, but I think UVA reins in a little bit of the yardage in this game.

Kobe Pace scores a touchdown: Pace posted 71 carries for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns through the first six games. He has just 1 TD against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents so far, but that came in South Carolina against Coastal Carolina. I think he gets in the end zone in the state again this week.

Someone other than Jonas Sanker leads the teams in tackles: Jonas Sanker picked up ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors in consecutive weeks. Against Louisville, he led the Hoos with 11 tackles. That came in part because he moved into Antonio Clary’s safety spot so he might put up big numbers again, but I think someone else tops the tackles list this week.

3 Keys To The Game

Try to pressure Cade Klubnik: Klubnik (6’2”, 210) comes into this game with some strong numbers - 1,528 passing yards on 123-184 passing (66.8%) with 17 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He’s climbing the record books at Clemson each week as he adds to those totals. He’s clearly someone that can be productive and the offensive line does a good job of giving him time. The Tigers, after all, have allowed only 6 sacks in 6 games to rank 14th (tie) nationally. UVA doesn’t seem likely to get home for sacks (tied for 63rd nationally with 12 so far), but it does need to at least try to get some pressure in Klubnik’s direction. Otherwise, it might be a game where he puts up some really big numbers.

Stick with the run: This feels like a game where Virginia needs to keep Clemson’s offense off the field as much as possible. That means putting together some drives where you stay on schedule and move the chains (and hopefully score some points). That likely means getting some of what Coach Elliott calls ‘dirty runs,’ meaning the unremarkable 3- to 4-yard carries. The good news: the Clemson run defense currently ranks in the middle of the pack nationally (65th, 140.33 yards per game allowed). The bad news: if you take the two games so far in October, the Tigers vault up to No. 6 (54.5 yards per game allowed). Still, Virginia probably needs to stay the course with this to at least some degree.

Keep up the turnovers trend: Virginia has not committed a turnover in three straight games, while forcing some on defense at the same time. It may be hard to win the turnover battle this week - Clemson has just 3 turnovers all season - but UVA needs to keep taking care of the ball to have a chance in this one. The Tigers are tied for 12th nationally with 12 takeaways this season and they’ve won the turnover margin category in 11 of the last 12 games.

3 Virginia Picks

Offensive Player Of The Game: Tyler Neville continues to play well and is up to 12 catches for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. That includes 7 catches last week. I think he makes it back-to-back games with 5+ catches and 45+ yards this week.

Defensive Player Of The Game: Jonas Sanker seems like the safest pick here on a defense where he and Kam Robinson seem to make the most eye-catching plays. I’ll guess he posts 7+ tackles with at least 2 HAVOC stats such as a sack, tackle for loss, pass breakup, or interception.

Winner: Clemson clearly has had the edge in this series and looks like one of the contenders in the ACC again this season. The Hoos will struggle to keep up. Tigers win 44-19. (Season to date: 4-2)

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