We have made it through the first full month of the college football season. Last weekend was one of the season’s best, with an Alabama-Georgia clash for the ages, a major upset in Oxford, and a chaotic and controversial ending to the Virginia Tech-Miami game. On paper, this Saturday looks like the weakest slate of games of the entire season. However, when sports betting, even the biggest blowout can generate spine-tingling excitement.
One mistake that new sports bettors make is placing too much emphasis on favorites and point total overs. Betting the over is certainly an understandable mistake; it’s more fun to root for points being scored than for teams to be forced to punt. Though bettors are more likely to back higher rated teams, lines have been carefully calculated to come out to even results for favorites and underdogs over the course of a season.
Despite my knowledge of these trends, I see value in several game totals and favorites this weekend. First, though, let’s look at the Virginia football team’s game with Boston College.
Virginia’s Week 6 Preview
- Boston College +1 at Virginia, Under 53.5
Virginia fans must be lamenting having to wait an extra week to play Boston College. With star quarterback Thomas Castellanos sidelined with an injury, Bill O’Brien’s squad barely squeaked out a home win against Western Kentucky. The Eagles’ offense didn’t look the same with back-up quarterback Grayson James at the helm. Despite leading the team to a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter, James completed only 19 of 32 passes and finished with a QBR of 53. After practicing on Tuesday, it does appear that Castellanos will be available this week, which should bolster Boston College’s offensive efficiency. Still, it will be a storyline to watch for the rest of the week.
Both teams have offenses that are capable but uneven. Where I give Boston College an advantage is on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles’ run defense ranks 27th nationally, allowing only 101.4 yards per game, and ranks 24th in points allowed per game. The play of defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku is a huge reason for BC’s success in shutting down opposing offenses. He ranks first in the FBS with 8 sacks and is third nationally with 9.5 tackles for a loss.
Though Virginia’s defense looks better than it did a season ago, the Cavaliers have still allowed opponents to pass for an average of 269.5 yards each game (118th in the FBS). To have success during the ACC schedule, UVA needs to drastically cut back on the number of explosive plays it gives up each game.
This should be a competitive game for the Hoos, similar to last year’s 27-24 loss in Chestnut Hill. Ultimately, I give the edge to Boston College. Virginia has only beaten the Eagles once in eight matchups and I think that trend continues this weekend. Eagles win 28-20.
College Football Predcitions & Best Bets
- Record last week: 1-5; Season record: 9-19 (Editor’s Note: Last week was just a few points away from being a winner. Sports betting is fickle!)
Given all the good vibes surrounding this program, you would not expect Duke to be more than a touchdown underdog against a 3-2 Georgia Tech team. I think sportsbooks have the same skepticism that I do about the Blue Devils’ quality of opposition and underlying metrics. The offense has been inconsistent, ranking 15th in the conference in rushing yards per game and 10th in passing yards.
Coming off a bye week, Brent Key’s squad should be refreshed and prepared for this game. Quarterback Haynes King leads the conference in completion percentage (73.9%) and is also the leading rusher on the team. Behind King’s dual-threat abilities, the Yellow Jackets average 439 offensive yards per game and rank 31st in the FBS in passing. However, I think the Georgia Tech run defense will be the deciding factor in this game. This unit has allowed only 90.2 yards on the ground this season. If Murphy is forced to be a pocket passer, I really like Tech’s chances of covering.
Coastal Carolina -5 vs. Old Dominion (-110): Speaking of teams playing with extra rest, Coastal Carolina has had 2 weeks to shake off a poor performance against Virginia. Though the Chanticleers are known for their ground game, they could only muster 82 yards on the ground against the Cavaliers. Even with the rushing struggles, Coastal managed to throw for 302 yards on only 16 completions. I think they bounce back this week and return to the team that averages 209.2 rushing yards per game.
It should help that they are facing a team in Old Dominion that ranks outside the top 100 in rushing defense, allowing 185.5 yards per game. Though the Monarchs have demonstrated pluckiness in close losses to East Carolina and South Carolina, there isn’t anything this team does particularly well. Even in last Saturday’s win at Bowling Green, Old Dominion was outgained and completed only 12 passes in the game. Starting quarterback Grant Wilson left with an injury and his status this week is unknown. ODU likes to play in a lot of close games, but I think that Coastal Carolina playing at home will win by a touchdown.
Navy at Air Force over 35 (-110): Over the last two decades, there has been no better system play in college sports than betting on the under in games between service academies. Since 2005, Commander-in-Chief's Trophy matchups have gone under the point total in 45 out of 57 games. This statistic includes 15 of the last 19 meetings between Air Force and Navy. However, I am going to be contrarian and pick the over for Saturday’s matchup in Colorado Springs.
Under Brian Newberry, Navy’s offense has incorporated more “spread option” looks and has shown a greater willingness to throw the ball. Quarterback Blake Horvath leads the nation in QBR and is the only passer this season to have thrown 2 touchdowns of longer than 70 yards in the same game. The Midshipmen average 46 points per game and all 4 games have gone over the expected points total. Even though Air Force has a mediocre offense, I think the strength of Navy’s offense will do the heavy lifting here.
Indiana at Northwestern over 41.5 (-110): This is another game where I’m putting my faith in a high-octane road team to continue putting up points against a middling opponent. Only 4 FBS teams made it to October winning all their games by double-digits: Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, and Indiana. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke leads the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play and ranks third in QBR. Behind Rourke’s arm, the Hoosiers have the 18th rated passing attack, averaging 302.4 passing yards per game. Only Mississippi averages more passing yards per attempt than Indiana, which has scored at least 31 points in every game this season.
Northwestern is a defense-first team that has certainly had its share of offensive struggles this season. Still, if the Wildcats can manage to score 13 points - the team’s average output against FBS teams this season - Indiana should be able to take care of the rest.
Toledo -6 vs. Miami (Ohio) (-110): You wouldn’t know it from their current records, but both of these teams entered the season with the expectation to compete for a MAC title. Of the two programs, Toledo has shown the most promise. The Rockets have an above average defense, allowing only 94.7 yards (23rd in the FBS) and 19 points per game. The 24-point win in Starkville in Week 3 was impressive, even if you concede that Mississippi State is the weakest of the SEC teams. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of being one of the best passers in the conference. With 11 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions to his name, Gleason has propelled a Toledo offense that averages more than 37 points per game.
By contrast, Miami has been a model of consistency this year (derogatory). The RedHawks have not demonstrated any offensive competence to date. Averaging 85.5 yards per game on the ground (121st in the FBS) and 12 points per game (132nd in the FBS) is not a winning formula. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and ranks 114th in QBR. There really isn’t much to like about Miami. Coming off a bye week, I expect Toledo to win this game comfortably.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
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