The past week in college basketball was not kind to teams ranked in the top 25 as 16 teams lost at least one game. That, of course, impacts positioning for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. This week’s bracketology projections provide context for where teams are late in the season as of 1 p.m. on Monday, Feb. 27.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 6th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board.

For Sabre fans, it was not a good week for the Wahoos as the poor play caught up to them. I have UVA as my top No. 5 seed Monday morning down from the last No. 2 seed as of last Wednesday. Virginia's metrics have taken a dive with its NET down to 28 after it was 15 early last week, and the Kenpom number is now down to 38 after it was at 14 I think earlier in the week.

However, I think the committee places more importance on the NET and the average of the results (KPI/SOR) and predictive (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin) metrics then just one metric. For the Hoos, the average of the results based metrics is 16.5. That is the 16th highest which would correlate with the last 4 seed and No. 16 on the S Curve. The predictive based metric average isn’t as friendly with an average of 33.3, which would be 32nd and correspond with the last 8 seed. Now from my experience, as the committee has used these metrics more and more, I think they tend to place more emphasis on the results based metrics since that is a more objective measure of how a team actually did versus its schedule with the predictive metrics perhaps giving some more clarity on how good a team has played in those games and possibly on how high a ceiling it has.

For Virginia, I think you can say the Hoos are likely on the 4/5 line right now. The Clemson game this week represents a Q2 opportunity so a win there while taking care of business against Louisville would solidify UVA on the 4/5 line and I would guess they would likely be a 4 seed in my bracket heading into the ACC Tournament. Win the tournament and moving back to the 3 line is possible though not guaranteed.

If UVA loses to Clemson but beats Louisville, my guess is they are on the 5/6 line maybe more a 6 heading into the ACC Tournament. Lose both and UVA may tumble down to the 7-9 seed line heading to the ACC Tournament. Needless to say, it’s a big week for the Hoos.

Here is the full bracketology breakdown.

Seed Power Team
1 1 Houston*
1 2 Kansas*
1 3 Alabama*
1 4 Purdue*
2 5 UCLA*
2 6 Texas
2 7 Arizona
2 8 Baylor
3 9 Kansas St.
3 10 Gonzaga
3 11 Marquette*
3 12 UConn
4 13 Tennessee
4 14 Xavier
4 15 Virginia*
4 16 Indiana
5 17 Miami (FL)
5 18 Saint Mary's (CA)*
5 19 Duke
5 20 Texas A&M
6 21 San Diego St.*
6 22 Northwestern
6 23 Iowa St.
6 24 TCU
7 25 Kentucky
7 26 Creighton
7 27 Michigan St.
7 28 Missouri
8 29 Iowa
8 30 Maryland
8 31 Arkansas
8 32 Illinois
9 33 Memphis
9 34 Auburn
9 35 West Virginia
9 36 Southern California
10 37 Boise St.
10 38 NC State
10 39 Fla. Atlantic*
10 40 Providence
11 41 Penn St.
11 42 Pittsburgh
11a 43 Wisconsin
11a 44 Nevada
11b 45 Utah St.
11b 46 Rutgers
12 47 Col. of Charleston*
12 48 VCU*
12 49 Drake+
12 50 Oral Roberts*
13 51 Utah Valley*
13 52 Toledo*
13 53 Yale*
13 54 Louisiana*
14 55 Iona*
14 56 Furman*
14 57 Kennesaw St.+
14 58 UC Irvine*
15 59 Vermont*
15 60 Colgate*
15 61 Montana St.*
15 62 UNC Asheveille+
16 63 Youngstown St.*
16 64 Grambling*
16a 65 Texas A&M CC*
16a 66 Howard*
16a 67 SE Missouri+
16a 68 Fairleigh Dickinson+
  • Last Four In: Oklahoma St., Arizona St., WVU, Auburn
  • First Four Out: Wisconsin, UNC, Michigan, Clemson
  • Next Four Out: Penn St., Oregon, Utah St., New Mexico
  • Comment: The bottom of the bracket is becoming more and more convoluted and difficult to sift through. As of this minute, I considered 13 teams for the last 6 spots and ended up placing Mississippi State, Boise State, Auburn, West Virginia, Arizona State, and Oklahoma State in the field and left Wisconsin, UNC, Michigan, Clemson, Penn State, and Oregon out. However, this could change and will depend on how these teams finish the season.
  • Comment: The last 1 seed was between Purdue and UCLA. That could go either way as well depending on how they finish the season. The top 3 spots could be jumbled in any way and I would be fine with it. They all 3 have legitimate arguments to be the overall 1 seed.
Notes on my selection process:
  1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
  2. Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
  3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.