College basketball season is winding down so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.

For my fellow UVA fans, I have Virginia as the sixth team out Friday. The NC State loss moved back to Q2 for now as the Wolfpack’s NET went back up to 135. An NCSU win over UNC this Saturday would help the Hoos immensely by securing that loss potentially as Q2 and hurting UNC, a bubble team ahead of the Hoos at the moment. Virginia is probably between the sixth and ninth team out right now depending on how you evaluate things.

Saturday is a Q3 game at home against FSU that the Hoos have to win but won’t move the needle for their bubble case. They finish up with a Q2 opportunity against Louisville to end the season that would add a quality win to the resume. I think the path to an at-large bid (beyond winning these two games) at the ACC Tournament is at least 1 quality win (top 100 NET) if not 2, which would most likely mean at minimum a trip the semifinals of the ACC Tournament if not the ACC Championship Game pending how opponents shake out. I would be surprised if a trip to the title game didn’t result in an at-large bid. A trip to the semis could as well, but it would be very dependent on bubble happenings around the country.

In any sense, a four-game winning streak is likely the minimum needed for Virginia to make it. The good news is that the Hoos are playing as well as anyone in the league right now so that is very conceivable.

In terms of the other projections:

  • No changes in the at-large teams in/out for Friday, but Oregon picked up a huge win Thursday night against UCLA and that moves them up to the second team out entering the next set of games. Indiana, Memphis, and BYU avoided bad losses so they keep their spots. Belmont was destroyed by Murray State last night and they probably will have to win the OVC Tournament to get in.

Here are some bubble games to watch this weekend:
  • San Jose State @ San Diego State - The Aztecs have solidified themselves recently and really just need to avoid bad losses to keep their spot. This would be one if they lose.
  • Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - Similar to SDSU, Notre Dame just needs to avoid bad losses and this would be one.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami - The Canes also need to avoid bad losses, this would not be one, so it isn’t critical for Miami ... but it is for Virginia Tech. The Hokies lack quality wins - 1 Q1, 3 Q2 - and have both a Q3 and Q4 loss. They need this one badly to add to their Q1 win total and keep their at-large chances on life support. A loss here may require an ACC Tournament title to get a bid.
  • Illinois @ Michigan - Michigan is in OK shape for now. The Wolverines also have 3 Q1 games left, which means they wont get a bad loss. However, their overall record is 15-11 and it is hard to see them getting in if their overall record is at .500 or a game or even two above. It would greatly behoove them to win at least 1 of their last 3.
  • Louisville @ Wake Forest - Wake’s loss to Clemson didn’t help. The overall resume is not terrible for the Deacs, but the one thing they cant afford is bad losses. Their last two games present those possibilities. Win the last two and the Deacs are probably safe.
  • Wichita State @ Memphis - This currently would be a Q3 loss, though a WSU win could move them into Q2 territory. Memphis has to avoid bad losses and may have to pick up one more quality win to keep a bubble spot.
  • Pepperdine @ BYU - This is a Q4 game in BYU’s last regular season game. The Cougars are in a perilous spot and have to avoid bad losses to have a chance. They may also have to find a way to pick up a quality win at the WCC Tournament to end up in the field.
  • VCU @ UMass - Landmine game for VCU. Have to win this and likely 2 of the final 3 plus avoid a bad loss in the A-10 Tournament at a minimum.
  • Indiana @ Minnesota - Although this would only be a Q2 loss, the Hoosiers are in a spot where they need to win to keep their spot. Winning 2 of their final 3 may be enough.
  • UNC @ NC State - The Heels resume is very vanilla, a loss here may be a Q2 loss as NC State is right on the edge of the Q2/Q3 line, but would be really tough on UNC’s at-large chances. With a Q3 game against Syracuse up next and an incredibly tough game @ Duke to end the year, this is almost a must win for UNC.
  • Wisconsin @ Rutgers - The Knights picked the wrong time to lose two in a row. They have an odd resume as it is and need to start a new winning streak. This would be a Q1 win and could put Rutgers back in the mock bracket come Monday. They really need to win this one or the next game @ Indiana.
  • Florida @ Georgia - Dangerous game for UF as Georgia has been tough at home at times. A loss would be catastrophic and a win is necessary to keep hope alive.
  • SMU @ Houston - A huge opportunity for SMU and the last shot at a quality win before the AAC tourney.
  • USC @ Oregon - A huge win for Oregon over UCLA, a win here and avoid a bad loss and Oregon may be in decent shape.
  • St. Bonaventure @ St. Josephs - Not going to help the Bonnies much to win but could kill at-large chances with a loss.
  • Dayton @ LaSalle - See above.

Here’s the bracket as of Friday, Feb. 25:
Seed Power Team
1 1 Gonzaga
1 2 Arizona
1 3 Auburn
1 4 Kansas
2 5 Baylor
2 6 Kentucky
2 7 Purdue
2 8 Duke
3 9 Texas Tech
3 10 Villanova
3 11 Wisconsin
3 12 Tennessee
4 13 Providence
4 14 UConn
4 15 Ohio St.
4 16 Texas
5 17 Illinois
5 18 UCLA
5 19 Southern California
5 20 Alabama
6 21 Arkansas
6 22 Saint Mary's (CA)
6 23 Houston
6 24 Iowa St.
7 25 LSU
7 26 Marquette
7 27 Colorado St.
7 28 Michigan St.
8 29 Murray St.
8 30 Boise St.
8 31 Xavier
8 32 Seton Hall
9 33 Iowa
9 34 Creighton
9 35 TCU
9 36 Wyoming
10 37 San Francisco
10 38 Davidson
10 39 San Diego St.
10 40 Notre Dame
11 41 Miami (FL)
11 42 Michigan
11 43 Memphis
11 44 Loyola Chicago
12a 45 Wake Forest
12a 46 VCU
12b 47 BYU
12b 48 Indiana
12 49 North Texas
12 50 Iona
13 51 South Dakota St.
13 52 New Mexico St.
13 53 Chattanooga
13 54 Toledo
14 55 Vermont
14 56 Texas St.
14 57 Yale
14 58 Montana St.
15 59 Jacksonville St.
15 60 Long Beach St.
15 61 Longwood
15 62 Colgate
16 63 Cleveland St.
16 64 Norfolk St.
16a 65 Texas Southern
16a 66 UNCW
16a 67 Nicholls
16a 68 Bryant

  • Last Four In: Indiana, BYU, VCU, Wake Forest
  • First Four Out: UNC, Oregon, Rutgers, Florida
  • Next Four Out: SMU, Virginia, St. Bonaventure, Dayton
  • Next Four Out: Belmont, South Carolina, UAB, Mississippi St.
  • Next Four Out: St. Louis, Virginia Tech, Kansas St., Oklahoma

Notes on my selection process:
  1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
  2. Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
  3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.