The calendar has reached the middle of February, so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.

For my fellow UVA fans, the Hoos lost a golden opportunity Monday to pick up a Q1 win. With how the bubble has played out this week, that would have probably put them in my first four out. Oh well, they still moved up to the 8th team out from the 10th team out on Monday. Despite the loss to VT, UVA did see a Q3 loss disappear for now as NC State moved into the top 135.

I rank UVA ahead of the Hokies because they have more quality wins than VT and have overall played a little tougher schedule. In fact, Virginia’s strength of record (SOR) is a little better at 66 vs VT’s 68. I still think if the Cavaliers can win their last 4 they will be in the field heading into the ACC Tournament. Avoid a bad loss there and they are likely in good shape. A split in the next 2 and 3-1 finish would have them on the 1st or 2nd line out heading into the ACC Tournament and likely in need of a trip to the semis to be in contention for a bid. Losing the next 2 and finishing 2-2 would likely require a trip to the ACC Championship Game to have any shot. Of course, this is all speculation and will depend on other teams as well.

In terms of the other projections:

  • The free for all for the last 1 seed is in full swing. For the moment Arizona is safely the third 1 seed, but Kansas, Purdue, Baylor, Kentucky, Villanova and Wisconsin are still in play. I expect this to change constantly through conference tournament week and Arizona has little to no room for error.
  • The bottom of the bracket is very interesting these days. I moved out West Virginia and Oklahoma and moved in two B1G teams Rutgers and Michigan. Rutgers is the hottest team in the country piling up big win after big win in the loaded Big Ten conference. Michigan moved back in after a big road win over fellow B1G bubble team Iowa. The Hawkeyes have great metrics (NET of 21, KenPom of 21, and a SOR at 44), but they have 0 Quad 1 wins and only 1 win over a likely at-large team (sinking Indiana). If Indiana continues their skid, they would have zero wins. Meanwhile the first 3 teams out are from the Big 12 (Kansas St., Oklahoma, and WVU). All three of these teams are about even with mediocre overall records (14-11 or 14-12) tough SOSs (from 4-7), similar NC SOS, similar totals in the quads and SORs. Oklahoma does have a better KenPom and NET by a significant margin. It will be interesting to see how this sorts out and the Big 12 tourney will be very competitive and bubble impacting.
  • I have 4 teams from the ACC in (Duke a 3 seed, Notre Dame and Miami 9 seeds, and Wake Forest a 10 seed). UNC is my 7th team out, UVA my 8th team out, and Virginia Tech my 12th team out. Wake is in decent shape right now but still has no wins over likely at-large teams. They have one more chance Saturday when Notre Dame comes to town. If they miss that chance, even though they should win their last 3 games, they will be in a precarious spot entering the ACC Tournament, and 1 bad loss away from seeing their resume sink. UNC’s loss to Pitt was disastrous but not a season killer yet. A Q1 win on the road in Blacksburg on Saturday would reverse the momentum. After that a potential Q2 opportunity awaits @ NC State if the Pack can stay in the top 135 (currently 132) and of course the Q1 chance at Duke to close the season. UNC probably needs to win 2 of these 3 and take care of business at home against Louisville and Syracuse to seriously be in the convo heading into the ACC Tournament. The Hokies beat Virginia on Monday night but it didn’t significantly help their resume since UVA was only a Q3 win at the moment. The lack of Q1 wins or wins over likely at-large teams hurt the Hokies who also have 2 Q3 losses. However, they are hot and have won 6 in a row. They have 2 Q2 opportunities left (UNC and @ Clemson) and a Q1 chance (@ Miami) before the ACC Tournament. The Miami road game is going to be huge for their chances as it will be for UVA this weekend.

    • Here’s the bracket as of Friday, Feb. 18:

    Seed Power Team
    1 1 Gonzaga
    1 2 Auburn
    1 3 Arizona
    1 4 Kansas
    2 5 Purdue
    2 6 Baylor
    2 7 Kentucky
    2 8 Villanova
    3 9 Wisconsin
    3 10 Texas Tech
    3 11 Tennessee
    3 12 Duke
    4 13 Providence
    4 14 UCLA
    4 15 Illinois
    4 16 Ohio St.
    5 17 Texas
    5 18 Michigan St.
    5 19 UConn
    5 20 LSU
    6 21 Marquette
    6 22 Houston
    6 23 Alabama
    6 24 Southern California
    7 25 Colorado St.
    7 26 Iowa St.
    7 27 Saint Mary's (CA)
    7 28 Xavier
    8 29 TCU
    8 30 Murray St.
    8 31 Arkansas
    8 32 Wyoming
    9 33 Notre Dame
    9 34 Miami (FL)
    9 35 Seton Hall
    9 36 Boise St.
    10 37 Loyola Chicago
    10 38 Creighton
    10 39 Davidson
    10 40 Wake Forest
    11 41 Indiana
    11 42 San Francisco
    11 43 Rutgers
    11 44 Michigan
    12a 45 Memphis
    12a 46 BYU
    12b 47 VCU
    12b 48 Iowa
    12 49 Iona
    12 50 North Texas
    13 51 Chattanooga
    13 52 South Dakota St.
    13 53 Ohio
    13 54 Vermont
    14 55 Wagner
    14 56 Seattle U
    14 57 Long Beach St.
    14 58 Texas St.
    15 59 Montana St.
    15 60 Yale
    15 61 Cleveland St.
    15 62 Jacksonville St.
    16 63 Norfolk St.
    16 64 Longwood
    16a 65 UNCW
    16a 66 Colgate
    16a 67 Southern
    16a 68 New Orleans

    • Last Four In: Iowa, VCU, BYU, Memphis
    • First Four Out: Kansas State, Oklahoma, WVU, San Diego State
    • Next Four Out: St. Bonaventure, SMU, UNC, Virginia
    • Next Four Out: Oregon, Belmont, Florida, Virginia Tech
    • Next Four Out: Dayton, Stanford, South Carolina, Mississippi State

    Notes on my selection process:
    1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
    2. Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
    3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.